Uconn at Mich -3

This matchup will affect the rest of my season.

UConn played inspired football last year, however I have no faith in the passing attack.  Zach Frazer 10:9 ratio is pretty bad.  Also I can't trust the Michigan D.  This makes the O/U out of the question.

I love watching Denard Robinson run but he is horrible as a passer.  Rich Rod has to have a better way to get him the ball.

The power/smash mouth style of UConn should limit the touches of Robinson and the Wolverines.  Plus Michigan is good for a turnover or 2.

I feel as Rich Rod has better talent and more mystique but Randy has the more disciplined team.

Michigan team total over 16 for 2nd halftime is the only play for me.

seems like an odd play to focus in on ,,but hey,,your coin~~your call

This matchup will affect the rest of my season.

* why man ?....this game MUST be huskies or nothing...Michigan with tremendous pressure to do well here....plus Irish on deck.....I believe it is impossible to predict how they play here ....(they CAN'T be as bad as they played LY can they ?)

my HUNCH would be MIch wins a tough game....but huskies have made believers out of me....SO....don't think I will EVER bet against those guys


Michigan team total over 16 for 2nd halftime is the only play for me.

not sure where you're getting this......but I would expect a low scoring 1st half.....UConn maybe up ?.....so a Mich lean for 2nd half makes some sense....seems like UConn D fell apart late in several  games.....but would have to check

Edsall is winless against Rodriguez.

UConn has had trouble with Mobile QBs.

Michigans Defense is front heavy boasting good talent and experience in their front 7.

Michigan gave up a lot of points to teams with above average passing attacks. Though big runs were part of those attacks.

UConn's QBs and receivers are average or below.

Get the 2.5 while you can.

make that -2.5

Also Rodriguez will finally have the depth and experience necessary in every group besides the secondary.  UConn is not apt to exploit this. 

 

The reason this game will affect the rest of my wagering season is because I strongly believe this is a classic Overachiver (UConn) vs underachiver (Mich) based on the recent past. 

I don't want to take any credit away from UConn as last year they went toe2toe (losing by average of 3) with #19NC, Pitt, #22 W Virg, Rutgers, #4 Cincy.  The OT win over ND seemed like more of an Irish collapse than a UConn win.

what I want to learn from this game is:

1. Will Mich continue to turn the ball over?

2. Can UConn expliot the secondary in the passing game?

3. How will the Mich D-line play against the solid UConn O-line?

4. Will Rich Rod run gimmick plays on 3rd and 1 or rely on the power of the O-line?

.....The list goes on,  In my mind I just see this as a slow starting game.  If the O/U is 53 that means we are looking at a 28-24 type score predicted.  I don't know why I was thinking a 2nd half wager in the first week of August.  It must have been the Hieniken's talking.  However, I do pretty good when my subconsious picks the game for me.

Wouldn't say UM has underachieved.. they just haven't been very good.. the O is very solid, personally I think Tate is a better fit and passer than Shoelace, but the issues are on the D side of the ball.. it's not just if UCONN can exploit the secondary, it's can UM stop the run (91st in nation LY) w/o Brandon Graham & can the secondary step up w/o Donnovan Warren..  not sure if the UCONN passing attack poses a huge threat, but that solid OL going up against a front 7 that has had huge issues stopping the Run would be a major concern to me..

Leaning UCONN, but it just might be a no-play.. however, not sure how anyone can lay the points on a team that's last D-1 win came at the end of September in 2009..

I like UConn here.  ND on deck for the Wolves and a much better defense lastyear for the Huskies.

Good Luck though.

UCONN +3 at Michigan (UCONN much better power in this spot, equal stability between the two, UCONN 11-3 ATS L2 yrs away, UCONN also on a 10-2 ATS winning streak in 1st two wks of the season, I like UCONN as a dark horse in the East, Mich 40% ATS as fav late, its make or break for Rodriguez this season, and it starts with a UCONN team that went 4-0 L4 games of 09,

Mich goes on the road to Notre Dame wk 2

there is a ton of UCONN love for this game on this board right now----but I would avoid at all costs due to Michigan motivation in this game at home.

I agree.

I'm not convinced by a long shot that Mich's motivation at home is any greater than that of the Huskies on the rd. There was none better ATS on the rd. than UConn LY going 7-0 After finishing the season with 4 straight wins including the bowl victory over So Car., this group has to have a ton of confidence, and a coach that has instilled that mindset into his players. 16 starters returning---their 5 losses in '09 were by a combined 15 pts.--none by more than 4 pts., and 3 of these losses were after the death of corner back Howard. I'm with you Chef 702----my gut/intuition/subconscious---whatever, --tells me that UConn comes into the Big House and gets the SU win.

the only question here is the true IDENTITY of Michigan.....so far we MUST conclude they stink...until they show us otherwise.....

WARNING : from one who has made several (with BAC over .2 ?..... ...)......terrible halftime bets......assuming a struggling 1st half team comes back....even though I would expect RR to rally the troops.....could be JUST as much chance the whole thing unravels......they lose here.....and he gets his ass fired ......now can be fired with CAUSE....after recent WVirg  violations uncovered

This contest is not a slam dunk for either Mich or UConn, but the Wolves have another major exchange the very next week against the Irish---whereas the Huskies have what could be considered a much less intimidating opponent in Texas Southern from the SWAC. This allows some relief for the Huskies to put more focus on the Mich. game knowing that their next opponent isn't nearly as threatening a preparation. I'm taking the points, and riding the momentum.

DWood's analysis is the most accurate here... Bookie, i think you are looking at this in a very simplistic way... you are remembering how Michigan finished up the year... but remember, they came out of the gate screaming...

Rodriguez is notorious for his off-season conditioning... his teams always come out of the gate in better playing shape than any other team in the country, and then other teams catch up as the year rolls along...

on top of that, the look-ahead factor is crap... Rich Rodriguez cares far far far more about beating UConn than he does Notre Dame at this point... that will change eventually, but he wants this game, you can be sure...

DWood hit it right... it's a bad matchup for UConn against his style of football, which is why he has always owned them...

people are getting suckered on this game, and Mich is at a very cheap price...

I wish I didn't like Mich in this game, and thinking everyone is too in love w/ a Team that won't finish better than 3rd in the BE

FAR FAR FAR more than ND?

Yeah, and beating Iowa this yr is more important than Ohio ST

Besides it being opening game, and the game they have been getting ready for , than line is absurd.

If you don't beat your rivals, you dont have a job at those kinda schools

All I have to consider from Mich. is 8-16 over the past 2 seasons---they have a young secondary with little depth, worst Big 10 offense inside the 20, were last in the conference in turnover margin, a defense ranked 9th in the Big 10, are going to probably have a freshman punter, and they lost 7 of their L8 games. There isn't much to hang your hat on here, so unless something magic is on it's way to Ann Arbor---I'm not a believer.

There is never 100% certainty in choosing the winning side unless you are some sort of psychic wonder. I can't see enough positive information to support investing in Mich., and I don't have any tie to UConn, but they present a much stronger resume over the past year. 

I can't call it....like I said before UConn's average loss vs top teams last year was 3 points.

I will wager that Michigan will score some points.  I just don't want UConn to eat the clock since I believe Michigan will have at least 2 turnovers.