On the other side, Duke is expected to return to their customary place in the ACC basement. Although this team is improving year by year, any bowl expectations is simply a stretch for this squad. Further, the Blue Devils are expected to be without 12 significant players for their opener, all due to injury. "We have a chance to be down to 70 scholarship players in our opener," said Duke head coach David Cutcliffe. "I can honestly say I've never faced that before." Finally, I have always taken a lot of stock in home field advantages. However, Duke is 0-4 SU in its last 4 home games and 1-8 SU in its last 9, including an embarrassing 23-21 home loss on opening day last year to a 1-AA Richmond squad. I am not too concerned with any home field advantage in this one.
The line opened up at Duke -4 but has since seen a steady drop throughout the week, landing as low as 2 on some books, even with the betting public backing the Blue Devils. This line movement fits perfectly within my system.
To sum it up, Florida International is the better team, with or without injuries. According to CBSSportsline's ranking of all 124 1-A football teams, FIU ranks 38, while Duke is ranked 103. I usually shy away from betting big money on early season match ups, as vegas does not have a strong understanding of each team. However, I truly believe this line is a steal and must be acted upon.
Revenge is on the mind of the Golden Panthers, and I expect them to not only cover the spread, but to win the game outright!
GL
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