Posted:
#1
Iowa -6.5 (-110) 1U
SMU +16 (-110) 0.5U
Oklahoma State +3 (-120) 0.5U
California +1 (-110) 0.5U
New Mexico State +1.5(-110) 2.5U
Houston -7.5 (-110) 0.5U
*---I'll be locking in these plays closer to their respective kickoff times, I will post the updated numbers if need be. Hopefully, NMSU keeps moving in my favor...
*---So NMSU opens as a 5 point favorite at most books and has since become a slight home underdog. UTSA is beginning their first year in the FBS by going 4-0 so far. They've beaten powerhouses South Alabama, Texas A&M-Commerce, Georgia State and Northwestern Oklahoma. Today will be their first true test, so to speak, against NMSU. It's also the first conference game on their schedule, and the first conference game they've ever played (WAC). NMSU has had it tough the past few weeks, most recently losing to their rival UNM 27-14. They've also lost to UTEP and to future MAC Champs Ohio, leaving them with a 1-3 record. Those are the facts. This is what I think; UNMS wins by double digits. I see no reason for this drastic line move and thought the oddsmakers made a mistake when they opened it under a TD. This is a UNMS team that has been beat up on for quite some time now with their most recent 'big' win coming over Fresno St last November. They have a chance today to start a small win streak that could get them back to .500 if they can beat Idaho next week. After that, they may not win another game this year. I can't see this team letting these rookies come into their house and step on them just like the rest of the WAC has been doing for years. This is truly 'their time'. The stats will suggest otherwise in a big way but I honestly don't think they mean a thing in this rare situation. Look for big things from WR Austin Franklin, well over 100 yards with 2 TDs sounds about right. UTSA will face much tougher opponents than UNMS and I expect this to be the first of many beatdowns they receive this season.
*---UNMS is 11-1 ATS after allowing less than 170 yards passing and more than 200 yards rushing the previous week. (I'm not sure if this has any relevance but I like it.)
*---This game also marks the annual "We're tough enough to wear pink" campaign. Pink shirts and such in the stands. For cancer.
NCAA YTD: 21-25 +3.25U
ATS: 20-18 +4.00U
ML: 1-7 -0.75U
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