VT @ GT Analysis & Pick

One month in the books and I feel we now have as good an idea as we'll ever get on most teams headed into conference play. It's a double edged sword too because we're about to get sharper lines so a word to the weary, if you see a line that looks off- stay away! There will be no gimmes based on preseason expectations and regular season results. Thursday night is an ACC clash between Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech (-7, 41.5) and I feel like I have a great read on this game.

The Hokies are a pathetic offensive squad. What you saw against Alabama could be excused because 'Bama always has great defences right? Well we've seen the Tide get rolled and show real weaknesses in the secondary. Which would have been exposed against Virgina Tech if the Hokies had a) capable receivers and/or b) a legitimate QB. Logan Thomas is not good, the former TE plays like one behind centre and needs to rely on a decent running attack to have windows large enough so his inaccuracy doesn't cost him, making "close enough" good enough. VT doesn't have a ground game, which is a symptom of poor line play, and just leave this team susceptible to really erratic offensive production. It's either <5 plays and a punt or >10 plays and at a methodical pace and a short TD or FG try that had become an adventure so far this year. Beamer ball is hurting this year guys, and maybe even dating back to the sugar bowl against Michigan VT has really struggled with FG kicking, and I have to start wondering if 4th and less than 5 inside the 30 is 4 down territory. That being said, VT is a great punting team, remember Bama returning kicks for scores? Tough to say that's been cleared up totally, but what I can say is having those errors occur early in the season gives me faith that they're being worked on constantly instead of being taken for granted. They have an excellent punter, so for the most part VT may only advance to their own 30-35, but I have faith that they won't be issuing too many short fields in the punting game.

Defense is the same old tough unit at VT. You may not know the names or see them on Sundays but it's a solid unit and has only yielded 14, 3, 10 and 21 points (not including opp def/sp teams scores) this year. And if you think 21 points is alarming against Marshall, then you're not giving Marshall's QB the respect he deserves as he was able to have significant success through the air until conditions got bad and VT adjusted and shut down the Herds offense for the next 40 mins AND 3 OT. If GT had a passing attack that worried me, I would be predicting more success for GT through the air, but the Jackets are still the quintessential triple option offense and while it wouldn't stun me to see a big pass come through on a play action, I don't see too many big passes or big runs on the Hokies. I see minimal clock stoppages when the yellow jackets have the ball and having played the jackets since Paul Johnson's arrival, the Hokies haven't allowed more than 28 points, giving up 17, 28, 21, 26, and 17 to the Jackets. I expect that trend to continue, maybe seeing GT put up 20-24 points at the most.

I'm not going to get too in depth on Georgia Tech in offense. Here's the deal, they run triple option, they'll go for it on 4th and less than 3. They'll pass but have actually relied on the element of surprise to pick up first downs rather than back breakers. Watch for them to pass on 2nd or 3rd and 8 for 10 yards, and take a shot at the end one once getting to the red zone. But you won't see them making a habit of quick scoring drives, it'll be 8-10 plays to score. VT won't be surprised on defence. Defensively, GT had been able to shut down two ACC passing attacks and be effective against the run. I am keeping an eye on GTs safeties as both left last weeks game but can Logan Thomas exploit the inexperience? I doubt it. If VT continues to be unable to run the ball, I don't think they'll be likely to pass 40+ times, especially as I don't see GT running away with this one. Look for it to be close throughout. I see weaknesses vs weaknesses (VT Offense vs an improved but not ready to buy yet GT defence, VT passing defence vs GT pass offence) and strengths vs strengths (GT running game without an element of surprise vs VT defence). Ultimately, I think VT will have one or two too many empty possessions as they will be unable to count on FGs and don't have the offence to convert to often. I also see GT getting a bit less time on the field, and without a clear cut hurry up offence and the threat of bunch of incomplete passes (Oh, Logan Thomas will try his best, but VT won't let him throw 20 incompletions) I see GT covering in a game close to 23-14 or 24-10. But I am more comfortable in the UNDER, despite the possible 20-20 tie. I just don't think VT gets there, it may sound crazy but if you see VT with 3 at halftime you won't be surprised.

PLAY: U 41.5
Lean: GT -7
Tease to please: GT -1, U 47.5

Good luck and happy hunting. Comments and feedback appreciated. If you'd like any opinions on games you're looking at I'm game to discuss!!

Solid work

We'll said 

G Tech is one of those teams I love to watch because their offense is fun to watch.  A couple things I noticed last week that I wasn't all that happy with. 

1.  They ran that dive play probably 25 times last week.  It got them about 1.5 yards a carry with a breakout here or there for about 5 yards.  It was driving me crazy and thats what they were doing most of the 1st half.  I'm not sure if it was NC's D line that was making it so tough to run up the middle or the fact that it is a horrible play call.  Either way, I'd be looking for them to do less dives this week and more options.

2.  As soon as they started running the option plays and spreading out the field a little, they started to move the ball better.  I would think they would learn from last week and start going back to what they are good at...the triple option with the Bee back getting 7-8 yards a carry and breakouts of 10-20 yards. 

3.  They have a very underated passing game, which they didn't have in years prior.  Their pass game actually looks really good.  Which is good because the 3rd and long plays they have been going to the pass and actually been getting passed the sticks.

The key's to this weeks game for G. Tech would be to exploit the VT defense and use plays that are their bread and butter (the option plays) and mix in some good passing plays.  IF they do this, they should be able to cover the spread.  It was infuriating watching them run the dive play the 30% of the game last week.

G. Tech

Noonkid, I'm with you on most of your analysis. The only thing I would disagree with, and we are on the same side, is that GT will ditch the dive and go to the option earlier. You're a fan of watching them so you probably will understand this pretty well, but it's like a pitcher mixing in his pitches. The dive is the fastball, and the triple option and speed option stuff comes off of that, kind of how you throw off speed and breaking balls off the fastball. Georgia Tech will take the 3-4 yards that come with the dive and kill you with a thousand paper cuts until outside defenders start crashing and losing contain. After watching Saturdays game I can say that the success GT started to generate off the option was directly from Carolina defending the dive. I think there is a certain mentality with running the wishbone and you saw even when GT fell behind they love that dive. I see the same kind of game that played out Saturday. Only I trust VT to be better on defence based on their history and I can't see the Hokies score 20. If I had to play the side, GT is the way to go.

Also, not to get too football nerdy because I'm not in the coaching room, but it is much easier to run the dive against the 3-4, it could be why VT has had success against GT, because it's generally a tougher defence to run on, but my play is 99% based on the strategy of playing against the worst units on the field. VT specials teams and offence take that distinction come Thursday.

I believe that Georgia Tech ran the dive play so many times last week because of the bad weather and i think it was a smart move.

The playing conditions were awful.... Alot can go wrong when you're pitching the ball on the outside in the rain

VT can't run the football.  Pathetic offensive line.  Running backs aren't much.  QB throws a couple of good balls a game.  Where in the world have they been recruiting in Blacksburg lately.  Georgia Tech has some key injury questions.  If it weren't for that I would definitely lay the points.  I am thinking about teasing it down to 1 with something else.  As long as GT doesn't turn the ball over too much they should grind out a win. 

Yeah. Both safeties and a linebacker could be out. Again, I have no insight on their status, but it's kind of like losing a pinky before a thumb war. VT isn't going to be spreading it out and attacking the safeties anyways. I think it'd be smart to, and if they did it would take all of half of the first quarter to kiss my under goodbye, but I don't think its in their culture or skill set.

That's one in depth analysis.  I liked GT before I read this and still like them at -7

GL

Thats why I love me some totals instead of sides. Score is the inverse of what I expected at half but feel like the analysis was spot on with the exception of Va Tech having some success through the air. Neither team able to produce big quick scores or consistently put points on the board.

gonna get a ot vt and ova winner

Only care about the under, that was my only play, and I have a good sense of it comin through.

And I have it at a bad number. I played it at 41.5, easily would've been available at 43 for many so I hope whoever tailed has the best number.