Week 0 Picks and Analysis

Usually don’t lock games in before fall camp is over because of injuries and the inevitable random suspension of the best offensive player sitting the first half lol! Some of these numbers are on the move so I’m going to get these out now.

Before we get into the picks I just want to give a little background on my handicapping strategy and how I pick games. I have a background in football scouting so I rely a lot more on the eye test and film over statistics. I watch condensed tv copies of games on youtube to get a feel for players and schemes.  Not to say I’m anti-analytics and hate throwing the ball on first down but I just tend to trust my eyes more than the numbers. I like to back teams that can control a game with the run. I also don’t find myself backing teams that can’t get a stop. Not huge on laying more than two scores unless I see a significant edge. Figured this may help explain my logic when you see some of my picks but also explain my blind spots. For instance I was late to back a team like USC last year because I didn’t trust their defense but I jumped all over a team like Illinois that had a great running game and played solid defense. These are all just my preferences and explain some of the trends in my picks. 

Anyway, here's the picks for Week 0!

Navy +21 vs Notre Dame (1 unit)

Navy vs Notre Dame Over 49 (2 units)

The total is my favorite bet in this one. Fully aware that taking an over in a game involving a service academy in week 0 is just asking for trouble. Especially with this being played in Ireland and with the new rules that don’t stop the clock to reset the chains after a first down. Still, I don’t think oddsmakers have properly priced this new Navy offense and the addition of Sam Hartman at QB for Notre Dame. 

Navy hired former Kennesaw State Offensive Coordinator Grant Chesnut. He plans to keep the triple option but he’ll incorporate more passing concepts. Navy will likely start Tedros Gleaton at QB and I think he gives Navy the best chance at keeping this one close. There isn’t much film on him out there but based off his highschool film, the kid can sling it. I don’t expect Navy to throw the ball 30 times this game but I do think they’ll throw the ball enough to keep this Notre Dame defense off balanced for at least a half. 

Typically playing a service academy to open the season or with extended time to prepare has its benefits but this is a different situation. Notre Dame can obviously turn on the Kennesaw State film from last year but they don’t know how much of Chestnut’s offense will stay the same in an opening game. That’s why the first couple offensive drives for Navy will be crucial. Notre Dame has the better athletes and coaching staff so they’ll make adjustments eventually but Navy needs to start fast. If Navy can score 10-14 points in the first half, this one should fly over the total of 49.

On the other side of the ball, I like Navy’s defense. They return 5 starters on defense and all of their starters are upperclassmen but I still think Notre Dame will have a little too much firepower offensively with Sam Hartman. Notre Dame will try to establish the run but with Hartman I expect them to play to his strengths and incorporate a lot more RPO/zone mesh schemes. Defensively, Notre Dame is actually pretty small up front. They don’t have a single 300 pounder on their defensive front which could be trouble against a physical Navy team. 

Ultimately I think there’s a few different ways for these bets to hit. Navy starts fast and forces Notre Dame to play catch up and put the game on Hartman’s shoulders. Notre Dame struggles to get stops on defense but they are able to out-athlete Navy when they have the ball turning this into a shootout. 

This feels like a  33-17 type game. I won’t call the upset but don’t be surprised if Notre Dame is the team with 17 lol!

Ohio +3.5 at San Diego State (2 units)

Missed the best of the number so shop around for 4 if you can get it. Ohio may be the most complete team in the MAC this year. They return the Mac Offensive player of the year in QB Kurtis Rourke and standout running back Sieh Bangura and leading receiver Sam Wiglusz. Ohio brings back the core of an offense that averaged 32 ppg and put up 420 total yards per game so I trust them to handle their own in Week 0 even against a much tougher defense in SDSU. Ohio is no stranger to stepping up in class, facing Penn State and Iowa State in back to back weeks at the start of last season. They obviously got blown out in both those games but there’s no reason to believe the lights will be too bright for them opening the season at SDSU.

Defensively, Ohio will have their hands full defending SDSU’s converted quarterback Jalen Mayden. I just think the Aztec offense is a little too one dimensional. If Ohio can keep Mayden in the pocket and force him to beat them with his arm, I don’t think he'll be able to do it. I would imagine Ohio plays a lot of rush 3 drop 8 coverage. As long as Ohio’s tackling holds up (which can be shaky to start the season with less and less padded practices) I think they’ll be able to keep this SDSU offense in check. Ohio returns six starters on defense. I don’t see SDSU’s running backs getting much going in this one. SDSU will be without their #1 receiver from a year ago, Jesse Matthews. I think it will take their passing game some time to find an identity without him. I would expect a lot of 2 tight end sets which plays into the strengths of Ohio’s talented linebacking duo, Keye Thompson & Bryce Houston.

Ultimately, I’m going to go with the offense I trust more, getting more than a field goal on the road. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ohio won this outright so I’ll take the points. I also like the under but will wait to see if that total gets bet up as we get closer to kick. 

Do you know for sure if Rourk will play?  That could be the difference between a cover and not...

@LonghornHoosier

 Haven’t read anything about any setbacks for Rourke. He suited up and did drills before the spring scrimmage but didn’t actually play. That was in April though. I would assume he’s good to go by end of August but I don’t have a problem with the back up CJ Harris. He played well in the bowl game last year. 

@GeauxCap

 thats a huge road trip for a team with a shakey bad defense who played terribly on the road last season against good competition. health of rourke is paramount but would anyone really be shocked if SDSU wins 27-21 and covers all of the numbers this game has been posted at? Can jaylen mayden take a step forward this season as he did last year? lots of questions for both of these teams. 

Last season, Ohio was outscored on the road against Penn State and Iowa State 89 to 20...in weeks 2 and 3...Granted SDSU is not a power 5 team...I think SDSU wins and covers regardless of who will play QB for Ohio...

I am going to have to agree with what was said by the other two .. this isn’t wyomings defense of last year .. that Ohio had fun with in the bowl game .. ohio probably will struggle to move the ball.. Rourke is still an erratic at times and limited passer like his brother… San Diego’s offense can be anemic at times.. they are very one dimensional but with how poor ohio is defensively and their lack of being able to tackle .. the yards after contact may just rack up and do them in .. being a predominately small school bettor I have to say if Ohio isn’t getting a tuddy plus I don’t see a lot of value in a team that doesn’t want to play defense  

@steponaduck

@LonghornHoosier

@supermanbets

 All valid points. Won’t be too shocked if SDSU covers this one especially with how poorly Mac teams seem to do in noncon & bowl games. I do think SDSU is closer to Wyoming than Penn State or Iowa State at least offensively. They aren’t returning as much but SDSU actually finished with a top 20 defense last year. Gonna ride it out with the bobcats and see what happens! Good luck fellas 

If you like Ohio then you might as well play the over if Rouke is playing. Ohio brings almost everyone back on offense and SDSU's loses all their big players on defense. Plus a MAC defense is always worse than the stats indicate, which gets exposed in out-of-conference play.

@Laroja

Definitely see the logic behind that. You’re spot on with the Mac defensive stats on paper too.

I don’t expect Ohio to completely lock SDSU up but the Aztecs offense can really be abysmal at times. They’ve had their fair share of clunkers on that side of the ball. Last season they scored 16 vs Hawaii and 14 vs UNLV. It wasn’t like they weren’t moving the ball in those games but they just really struggle to finish drives. I could definitely see that happening in week 0 even against a Mac squad. 

Tough handicap, SDSU def lost some legit havoc machines but you gotta go back a fullllll decade to find the last bad Aztec D, been usually top 10 in Def ppg at least in conference ever since.. had 1 freak year they barely gave up over 21 ppg .. and the D trend survived Rocky's exit .. just at some point we gotta trust they'll have a D that keeps teams out the end zone .. Punter will be in the All Am convo this year.. good FG kicker returns.. very conservative on 4th dn's last year I'd expect more of the same there .. and at least the coverage group does project strong again, Phil w DB's at #35 isin't signaling an elite group but that's a strong rank for a G5 team w Marshall, ILL, Pitt neighboring them and #53 in LB's .. G5 team makes any of Phil's top 60ish unit rankings means pay attn the same way if we see a P5 team not in there.. 

Ohio's D was a legit horror show to start LY .. throttled by big and small teams, Fordham scored 52, threw for 500! .. Kent St 730 total yds .. down the stretch very sound nobody cracked 400 the last 8 games lotta solid D efforts ..  gotta do some dot connecting because other than the Bobs and Kent State the MAC O's really stunk last year, but think there was a noticeable shift after that Kent State game, D kept things very reasonable fair to expect that to carry over but that's obvi a question.. also didn't see Rourke vs Toledo or Wyo in the bowl gm, tough to say how he does vs a better G5 D .. obvi IA.St / Penn St went as expected .. 

Unreal how Aztecs and Hawkeyes managed to squander away a decade of elite defense w elite putrid offense lol .. I mean the PAC might not have been interested in SDSU anyway but 1 appearance in the champ game in the last 6 years and got slaughtered by Utah State isin't the best selling point .. I think .. well unlike Iowa there's a new OC in SD and he doesn't sound like a sure thing hire but some change is just likely better than none for them... and Mayden really does look like an ignition key just waiting to be turned .. Yeah tough handicap.. lean to the under and guess I'd lean to taking the points .. - Good luck GeauxCap

interesting...

both Army and Navy want to open up their offenses..... did not work for Georgia Tech.

once you say you need an option quarterback and a good passing QB, then you need a 4-star QB (or a very small QB)

@Bridge1

Yup! Feels like SDSU just rolls out of bed with a top 20 defense every year. Even an above average offense paired with one of their defenses the last 10 years could’ve really shook things up. Same goes for Iowa especially being in the Big Ten West but oh well. Agree with you on Mayden. He showed some signs of development late last year under the new OC Lindley. Never hurts to have a former quarterback in your ear. Just hoping SDSU takes a couple weeks to settle in on both sides of the ball. 

With you on both sides of the ND/Navy play...Good luck!

@Laroja

 Anyone thinking of laying points with SDSU needs to watch replays of the bowl game last Dec between SDSU and MTSU.   Mayden looked exactly like what one would expect from a safety who has been converted to play qb.  Lots of INTs, poor decision making, and generally handing the game to MTSU when SDSU clearly had the better defense.  Unless he has learned a lot since then, I would not bet SDSU with your money.

@DrStrangelove

   Good luck Strange! 

Utep ML -115 (2 units)

Adding another one for Week 0. The handicap here starts with Jacksonville State’s run game and UTEP’s ability to stop it. If Jacksonville State can run the ball as effectively as they did last year against FCS competition, they’ll be hard to beat. I just don’t think they’ll be very successful running the ball in this one.

UTEP returns seven starters from a defense that gave up 136 rushing yards per game and held three opponents under 100 yards rushing including holding conference USA champs, UTSA to 76 rushing yards on 33 attempts for 2.3 yards per carry last year in a wacky game to end the season. UTEP took in 7 Juco D-line transfers so they should have one of the deeper fronts in the league. Jacksonville State averaged 45 rush attempts per game last year and I don’t see that changing even with a step up in class. The defensive side of the ball is where I see Jacksonville State having the most trouble making the transition from the FCS level. They just don’t have FBS level size or skill on that side of the ball yet. I think teams will try to bully them in the trenches and it’ll start with UTEP in week 0. UTEP might have the best running back in the conference in Deion Hankins who I expect to have a thousand yard rushing season this year. UTEP also has the best receiver in the conference in Tyrin Smith who is an SEC-caliber player who actually transferred to Texas A&M this spring before returning to UTEP.

The one x factor in this game is Jacksonville State head coach, Rich Rod. I have questions about him as a head coach but I really respect what he can do offensively as a playcaller. He is capable of devising a game plan to keep a team off-balanced all game. I expect a few week 0 wrinkles that could lead to points early but UTEP should be able to make adjustments to Jacksonville State’s tempo. I’ll take a team that I expect to be in the Conference title game with a short price on the ML to open the season.