Week 0 Picks and Why

Another season is upon us.   Whenever you're dealing with the beginning of the season, we don't know much.    What I have over the years and what does work to some degree is looking at last years numbers with opening lines for this year.   Once week 0 and 1 are over then we begin to use this season's numbers.  You always want to becareful especially with the first couple of weeks, lots of changes, i.e., qbs, coaches and even venues for some games.

I try to do an apples to apples comparison so i'm looking at First week games compared to first week games of the past if nothing is found then I compare it to regular season numbers.    I'm trying to figure out if there is an opportunity or not.    

Let's look at some numbers:

-12.5   Flast   52 28   13 56

  55.5  Gtech  34 120 53 55

This game is being played on a neutral field.    Flast opened up as a 12.5 Fav, currently -11  (madduxsports.com)  .     Flast ranked 52 in total off compared to 34 for Gtech, Flast def 28 vice 120 for Gt  Sagarin rank FSU  13  Gt 53  and sched strength 56 and 55.    

Once again these numbers are from last year.    I looked at First week data where we had similar situations - found 2 - Flor.vs Miss flor won 51-35 and Sdst vs unlv 52-14.   The issue these games were played away and home not neutral field.     I looked at similar situations where they played on neutral field (bowl games) - didn't find any with an opening line of 12.5;however, the largest opening line I did find was between Ndame and Oregst - Ndame won 40-8.   

I prefer stronger support for my choice but considering opening week and neutral field - I'm taking Flast -11.   

The second game between SMU and Nev.  Found 1 situation which was a week 1 similar scenario - game was between Mtenn vs Smiss final score  42-21.   The problem taking SMU the line has jumped to -27.5 way above the 20.5.   The o/under line in the game was 54.5 - went over.    The o/under line in the Smu/Nev game opened at 57 and currently 56.    My plays:

1.  Flast -11  

2. Over Smu/Nev  56  

3. Teaser -6 pt  Smu -21 to Over  50 

Good luck all and have a great season.  

@TheBuddah

If you want a similar situation, look at last year's TCU/Colorado game.  Season opener after getting walloped by Georgia 65-7 >> TCU loses straight up as -21.

FSU in season opener after getting walloped by Georgia 63-3, laying 10 . . . .

Good luck Buddah.  

@mws

 COL/TCU - was played on the home field for TCU, the opening line was 21.5 (opening lines matter and mean something - to be similar opening lines must match) and most significant difference the data points aren't the same pattern.   In that game  TCU was better in all categories except sched strength - COL 1 and TCU 5 so in this situation that would not be a game I would consider similar.    Great upset though.   

I would consider FSU getting walloped by GA an anomly due to the fact they mentally and physically weren't there.  Also, things begin fresh - thus week vs week 1. 

BOL this season.

@D-Town

 Back at ya bud.

For what it's worth, I have FST -18 on neutral according to the ratings I use.

@Laroja

 BOL to ya bud.    My whole approach to betting sports to even arguing with the spouse - have a reason WHY - if it doesn't work, keep improving your process.   

Good advice about going slow the first couple of games... some years, Vegas gives however if you dig enough!

Good luck this year 

@Last2thirst

 Thanks bud.   I gotta tell myself, plenty of games to come, plenty to come, don’t go crazy.    However, like you said, if you do your research, you can find some opportunities.    Bol to ya this year. 

GL  this coming  season @TheBuddah

@Macwestie1

 Back at ya Mac

 Ya, exactly! Thanks for the best wishes...

I cut back last year and carved out a great % for me since I usually hit somewhere between 46-56% ..... same with stock market, less is more when you are swing trading or flipping Nasdaq/NYSE and not full stack