Going to start with Thursday games and games I’ve locked in already. Apologies if the best of the number is gone. Some of these week 1 lines have been up for a while but I haven’t had a chance to write down my thoughts with work and life!
NC State -14 vs UConn - 2 units
Tricky spot for NC State but I think there’s value on NC State here. This handicap started with what I would make the line on a neutral field. I’d have NC State favored by closer to 20 points. So that mixed with the fact that I don’t really respect UConn’s home field advantage I felt like 14.5 was a tad short. Obviously in week 1 on the road anything can happen so I found a cheap -14 for -120.
As far as X’s and O’s, I like the fact that Brennan Armstrong is reunited with his old offensive coordinator Robert Anae. When Armstrong is right, he can be lethal. I expect the NC State offense to be a lot more explosive this year. NC State added a WR transfer from Clemson and another from Rice who I actually expect to be a big contributor. I also expect Anae to find creative ways to get the ball to Julian Gray who has big play potential. There are question marks in the running game but with the experience on the OL it’s not a big concern.
For UCONN, they are solid up front on both the offensive and defensive line. I actually don’t expect NC State to just lean on them all game but I would still be surprised if UConn had any success running the ball in this one. That’s not a good recipe especially given the fact that NC State’s secondary has a chance to be an elite group. If UConn can’t get the ground game going and they don’t have much success through the air, I just don’t know where the points are coming from to cover this number.
The x factor here is obviously new UCONN QB and Maine transfer Joe Fagnano. I’m assuming he won the job because of the upside he provides in the passing game but again, this secondary will be tough to crack. The speed of this NC State defense will make passing windows a lot smaller than he saw at Maine at the FCS level. In two games against FBS competition (kinda) New Mexico and Boston College. Fagnano was 12 for 27 with 96 passing yards and 1 interception vs New Mexico and 21 of 43 for 289 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions vs Boston College. I expect him to find success behind a better offensive line than he probably had at Maine but not in this matchup.
NC State didn’t punta single time in this game last year and put up almost 500 yards of total offense. I don’t expect that to change much. Lastly, NC State head coach Dave Doeren typically has his teams well prepared. They may lose games but they are a buttoned up program. If there’s a team I trust laying two touchdowns on the road early in the season, it’s a team coached by Doeren.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Going to start with Thursday games and games I’ve locked in already. Apologies if the best of the number is gone. Some of these week 1 lines have been up for a while but I haven’t had a chance to write down my thoughts with work and life!
NC State -14 vs UConn - 2 units
Tricky spot for NC State but I think there’s value on NC State here. This handicap started with what I would make the line on a neutral field. I’d have NC State favored by closer to 20 points. So that mixed with the fact that I don’t really respect UConn’s home field advantage I felt like 14.5 was a tad short. Obviously in week 1 on the road anything can happen so I found a cheap -14 for -120.
As far as X’s and O’s, I like the fact that Brennan Armstrong is reunited with his old offensive coordinator Robert Anae. When Armstrong is right, he can be lethal. I expect the NC State offense to be a lot more explosive this year. NC State added a WR transfer from Clemson and another from Rice who I actually expect to be a big contributor. I also expect Anae to find creative ways to get the ball to Julian Gray who has big play potential. There are question marks in the running game but with the experience on the OL it’s not a big concern.
For UCONN, they are solid up front on both the offensive and defensive line. I actually don’t expect NC State to just lean on them all game but I would still be surprised if UConn had any success running the ball in this one. That’s not a good recipe especially given the fact that NC State’s secondary has a chance to be an elite group. If UConn can’t get the ground game going and they don’t have much success through the air, I just don’t know where the points are coming from to cover this number.
The x factor here is obviously new UCONN QB and Maine transfer Joe Fagnano. I’m assuming he won the job because of the upside he provides in the passing game but again, this secondary will be tough to crack. The speed of this NC State defense will make passing windows a lot smaller than he saw at Maine at the FCS level. In two games against FBS competition (kinda) New Mexico and Boston College. Fagnano was 12 for 27 with 96 passing yards and 1 interception vs New Mexico and 21 of 43 for 289 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions vs Boston College. I expect him to find success behind a better offensive line than he probably had at Maine but not in this matchup.
NC State didn’t punta single time in this game last year and put up almost 500 yards of total offense. I don’t expect that to change much. Lastly, NC State head coach Dave Doeren typically has his teams well prepared. They may lose games but they are a buttoned up program. If there’s a team I trust laying two touchdowns on the road early in the season, it’s a team coached by Doeren.
Six Point Teaser:Florida vs Utah Under 54 & UCF -27.5 vs Kent State (-120; 2 units)
A teaser in week 1 of college football.. what could possibly go wrong LOL. I don’t play these often and don’t really recommend them long term but I cracked here. In all seriousness, I liked the numbers I was able to get on these games so I took a shot with a teaser. Starting with Utah. I think my head will explode if I search Cam Rising on google or twitter one more time. My best guess is he either doesn’t play and if he does, he is extremely limited. Either way I think this points to the under. I also expect Utah to play complementary football in either situation. Look for them to lean on the running game, win the field position battle and take their field goals when they can get them.
On the other side, I’m not as down on Florida as others are. I actually think Graham Mertz is a capable quarterback. Just because it doesn’t work out at one school doesn’t mean it won’t at another (unless your name is Hank Bachmeier). Wisconsin may not have been the right fit for him but it’s not crazy to say that the Florida passing game might actually improve with him replacing Richardson. Anthony Richardson may have been a first round talent but he was not a good college quarterback from a passing standpoint. Anyways, the strength of Florida’s offense is in the running back room. Look for them to lean on them early in the season. Defensively, Florida should be more confident in their front 7 than the secondary. I think that bodes well for an under in a game where i expect Utah and OC Andy Ludwig to run the ball somewhere between 30-40 times this game. Even if they aren’t have success I don’t see them giving up on it. As long as Florida can limit the explosive runs, they’ll be in good shape.
As far as UCF and Kent State, I’ll keep it short and sweet. Kent State might be really really bad this year. UCF should be able to name the score in this one. One thing I look for in covering point spreads is pace of play. UCF will get off enough plays to cover this number twice if they want to.
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Six Point Teaser:Florida vs Utah Under 54 & UCF -27.5 vs Kent State (-120; 2 units)
A teaser in week 1 of college football.. what could possibly go wrong LOL. I don’t play these often and don’t really recommend them long term but I cracked here. In all seriousness, I liked the numbers I was able to get on these games so I took a shot with a teaser. Starting with Utah. I think my head will explode if I search Cam Rising on google or twitter one more time. My best guess is he either doesn’t play and if he does, he is extremely limited. Either way I think this points to the under. I also expect Utah to play complementary football in either situation. Look for them to lean on the running game, win the field position battle and take their field goals when they can get them.
On the other side, I’m not as down on Florida as others are. I actually think Graham Mertz is a capable quarterback. Just because it doesn’t work out at one school doesn’t mean it won’t at another (unless your name is Hank Bachmeier). Wisconsin may not have been the right fit for him but it’s not crazy to say that the Florida passing game might actually improve with him replacing Richardson. Anthony Richardson may have been a first round talent but he was not a good college quarterback from a passing standpoint. Anyways, the strength of Florida’s offense is in the running back room. Look for them to lean on them early in the season. Defensively, Florida should be more confident in their front 7 than the secondary. I think that bodes well for an under in a game where i expect Utah and OC Andy Ludwig to run the ball somewhere between 30-40 times this game. Even if they aren’t have success I don’t see them giving up on it. As long as Florida can limit the explosive runs, they’ll be in good shape.
As far as UCF and Kent State, I’ll keep it short and sweet. Kent State might be really really bad this year. UCF should be able to name the score in this one. One thing I look for in covering point spreads is pace of play. UCF will get off enough plays to cover this number twice if they want to.
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