Week 10 Discussion + SEC

There's a very big board for this weekend, looking to discuss many plays and leans this week boys.. 

Been doing very well in both CFB and NFL so far, looking to keep it going Gentlemen. 

Talked bout Georgia last week peaking ahead for this matchup. Think their offense will come out similar to their game plan vs Auburn. Walk on qb should have a decent day against a bad UF defense. Think UGa rolls imo 

Early leans Michigan (-3).. I know I know, they stink right? I'll tell you what stinks even more, this line. Michigan did it again last week, they reeled everyone in and hooked them by the ribs and ripped everyones guts out. I made a large wager as many of you know that follow my threads on Michigan in first game against Gophers, saw the Sparty line and knew right away it was far too deep for them to be laying chalk like this in conference play.. Stayed away entirely, but here we are again a week later when their stock has plummeted ALL the way down below zero.. yet their playing a public darling Hoosier team that beats Penn State and then covers against Rutgers.. but the way they've won is very troubling to my football eyes, and I believe Michigan runs it all over them and Don Brown defense brings too much heat for that IU QB to handle. Wolverines win and cover, if anyone sees it another way i'd love to hear why. 

I’m really feeling SC. I’m also feeling FLA. 

A few weeks ago I was ready to drop another GOY bet on UGA at a number like this, but a few concerns seeing that UF defense has changed what they are doing and running a lot of cover 1 action with numbers in the box to match what UGA likes to do in run game. Gators D got their anchor back for first game all year last week at Nose in their 3-4 scheme and aren't running as much 4-2-5 now.. some would say, hey wheels that's one game and no big deal.. Here's why it's important knowledge, Gators have some very good edge rushers and up and coming elite pass game hell raisers that have been forced to play in the middle of the 4 man front as Freshmen, as many can tell you that spells disaster in this league.. Bryan Cox, Jeremiah Moon and Gervon Dexter are now rotating on the ends with 5 in the box, which is leaving Zach Carter and Kyrie Campbell back in the middle to stuff run and allowing these talents to play their actual position and just go after the QB every snap aggressively.. They started dropping the db's down in mid nickel zones and are not giving away as much to a QB visually.. UGA QB is the biggest weakness for either team in this game, and that's a big problem. He stares down every single throw he's going to make on film, and teams like kentucky last week played against them as if they were a huge threat passing and left 5 in the box against 7 for UGA, strength in numbers. Gators are going to bring zone blitzes, Bennett has statistically done better against the man blitzes because you can get away with staring down your target and their talent is good enough to go make plays in 50/50 scenarios for him that way..Bennett does what most amateur QB's with not much experience do in college, makes up his mind pre snap where he's going and never for a moment even looks at the coverage or reads the windows and just fires it right to the other team. 

Two of UGA's major disruptors and most important DB in Lecounte look like they're not gonna play.. Florida is now at an advantage in more spots than they were just two weeks ago. This is a tough one to call now 

I'd like to know more about the Clemson injury situation for this game against the Irish, I see many people liking Notre Dame and in theory it makes sense.. love to hear from Boom if he's still around about Tigers and their situation right now.. 

If Clemson has their defense near where they are capable as far as personnel for this game I think they would control Irish offense very much so with Venables aggressive nature and keep Book from doing really much at all to hurt them. This Clemson QB looked very capable in the 2nd half, while Irish is better and more talented than BC, they are very similar in terms of matchups for clemson. Clemson will bring their A game for the 2nd time this year as they did against the Canes. Could be lower scoring for awhile, but clemson QB is very talented and able, if Clemson doesn't have too many problems on defense this week I really lean their way to lay the 5 and slowly run away from Notre Dame in the 2nd half.. Everyone will make the mistake of looking at last week and think if BC could play with them, then certainly ND can beat them.. This is a problem week to week bettors and casual fans make, when top teams finally struggle and look death in the face, they almost always come back with their best after that and in prime time and the world is watching. I still just don't see a scenario in which ND offense can do enough to stay on the field long enough to force clemson young QB out of his comfort zone with their run game and all the talented weapons to use in the air and on ground.. Someone with more knowledge of these teams please chime in and give me your angle here 

other leans as of this moment

Vols (-2)

South Carolina (+10)

Brenton Cox transferring was huge for UF. I follow a lot of hs recruiting so I’m familiar with him when he committed to UGA. Should be a big game for him. Will be interested to see Pickens v Wilson go at it!

initially, I liked Indiana when I saw this line but now I’m not sure. I told u couple weeks ago that Don brown is aggressive with his defense and always leaves his dbs on an island and MSU took advantage of that. Really a gut wrench loss for UM. Just undisciplined, outcoached and outplayed. The lack of pressure from DLine made it even worst for the dbs. If they could’ve got some pressure on Lombardi, that kinda masks their weakness. I went back and rewatched the game and there was a lot of times where if Milton makes the correct read, it’s a big gain or even 6. OL line played terrible and forced him to bail a lot early. I’m staying away 

best of luck brotha 

Betting clemson fh in prime time games have been my money maker for years. I think a lot of times, they’re just so well coached, experienced and have played in these big moments. The game against Miami is a great example. No Trevor has me second guessing right now but I really think Clemson wins by 2 scores. 

 This is a tough one to call now Brenton Cox transferring was huge for UF. I follow a lot of hs recruiting so I’m familiar with him when he committed to UGA. Should be a big game for him. Will be interested to see Pickens v Wilson go at it! initially, I liked Indiana when I saw this line but now I’m not sure. I told u couple weeks ago that Don brown is aggressive with his defense and always leaves his dbs on an island and MSU took advantage of that. Really a gut wrench loss for UM. Just undisciplined, outcoached and outplayed. The lack of pressure from DLine made it even worst for the dbs. If they could’ve got some pressure on Lombardi, that kinda masks their weakness. I went back and rewatched the game and there was a lot of times where if Milton makes the correct read, it’s a big gain or even 6. OL line played terrible and forced him to bail a lot early. I’m staying away  best of luck brotha[/Quote]

Cox is starting to make some game changing plays up front the more he gets his feet wet.. He's an enormously special talent for sure, reminds me of Dante Fowler off that edge with his first move..

I mean I can see why everyone is back to afraid to play michigan, they all were in the first game.. I just think Indiana is too limited to pull this off, it's even better now that Michigan is playing for their lives and are perceived as an underdog now even though only the gamblers know they're not.. Michigan should be able to do a lot of what they did offensively against Gophers and take the pressure off the QB. If Brown's D can limit the QB from using his feet, and force him to throw, he's just flat out not any good as a passer. 

Further, KS lack of creativity and stubbornness could hurt dawgs. If Fl shuts down the run, I would doubt seriously  Bennett  is gonna beat you vs Trask. With you on Mich and Sc too. 

Great insight wheels!  Especially regarding improvement up front with Florida's defense.  Mizzou Off had been playing pretty well and they completely shut down their rush attack...< 2ypc.  After they had just gone for 220yds vs Kentucky (not a great YPC avg, but still).  I think that is the key plus it's going to be windy (15+ mph winds) and Bennett already struggles to throw outside the hashes...if they can slow the run and clog the middle, force Bennett to make throws outside their def should be able to hold up pretty well.  I wanted to bet UGA big as well leading up to it, but just can't get there w/ Bennett (inj on def don't help either, but not as much a worry).  Over might be a potential play as well, but the wind gives me a little pause...Trask can throw some ducks as well.

Lots of smoke on uGa’s end that Pickens did not travel with the team. Big blow for them if true