Week #12 - Whats that smell?

 One of the most topsy turvy seasons in a while...I love the drama but my pocketbook is suffering from inconsistency. Teams play great for 2-3 Q's and then cough it up. 

I would really like to see an SEC vs BIG10 matchup playoff  (8 best vs  8 best and last team standing!!)

There really are not a lot of other teams that can slide into the Top 12 and hang with them out of those 2 Conferences...

Top 4 Seeds For Playoff as of now: ( based on Top 4 Conf leaders)

1. Oregon  (Big 10)

2. Texas  (SEC)

3. BYU    (Big 12) 

4. Miami  (ACC)    

My Actual Best Teams Ranking:

1. Oregon  (zero losses) 

2. Ohio St. (best 1 loss team in strongest Conference)  

3. Texas   (2nd best 1 loss team)

4. Indiana (no losses)

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5. Penn St. (3rd best 1 loss team) 

6. Tennessee (4th best 1 loss team)  

7. Alabama (best 2 loss team)

8.  Notre Dame (5th best 1 loss team)

9.  Ole Miss   (2nd best 2 loss team)

10. Georgia   (3rd best 2 loss team)

 --------------------In the Hunt-------------

11 BYU  (no losses)  

12 Miami  (5th best 1 loss team) 

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13 SMU (6th best 1 loss team)  

14 Texas AM  (4th best 2 loss team) 

15  Boise  (7th best 1 loss team)

----------------------Maybe --------------

16. Army (no losses / weakest SOS)

17. Clemson (5th best 2 loss team)

18. LSU  (best 3 loss team)

19. South Carolina (2nd best 3 loss team)

20. Colorado  (6th best 2 loss team)

BEST TEAMS WHEN AT BEST DOMINATING FORM WITH THEIR TALENT AFTER VIEWING MANY GAMES:

1. Ohio State

2. Oregon

3. Alabama

4. Texas - Ole Miss - Georgia tie

I will be BETTING GEORGIA this weekend and I am not sure if I like too many lines right now but its put up or shut up time for KIRBY and CO and I think home field -9 will be a good bet and for sure I am combo-ing them with other things in ML despite the pickings being meagre

Arizona St +8.5 looks inviting .....is there an injury?? K-State rested while they played and now have to travel but AZST is legit if healthy

Like this Ohio team but the line is running....

Texas won't take it easy on Arkansas and Ewers and co looked frisky.....Ole Miss put up over 50 and Texas defense is slightly better than Ole Miss ... -15 looks ok

Notre Dame is impressive.... -22.5 ....not sure how many points Virginia can score on this defense and Riley Leonard vs old stomping grounds  team he knows should be impressive showing off

Rutgers + pts is attractive with Maryland having to negotiate jetlag and tired from travel to left coast 

Boise is teetering a little.... SJST might give them some trouble 

If Wash St can't stop run and New Mex can't stop pass...that 72 number can be attacked!!

Texas AM will destroy NewMexSt

Oregon could cover the Wisky -14 but have to look into Michigan vs Oregon since I see some similarities in strength and approach on the field

No commitments yet!!

I do not trust this Georgia team at all. Carson Beck has been so inconsistent and looks scared or completely stoned most of the time. He decision making has been terrible. I think this week will come down to how hurt is Nico? The Vols backup looked good for the 2nd half and brought home the W. I think this will be a close game with a potential ML play on the Vols. Once we know more info on the QB situation, I think we will see this line shoot down.

 Yes, he looks stoned or doped on something!

I have watched the Vols a lot and don't feel their play calling and decision making in key moments is conducive to beating the top tier teams although I did not see the Alabama game and recognize their defense is legit mean and capable *TOP 5* ...I have seen enough of Nico to know you can gameplan how to stop him and contain him which, Georgia was able to do with Ewers if you remember and I rate Ewers above Nico

The reason I lean Georgia is they are under the gun big time like LSU was and who do I trust to get them ready like Alabama was ready for LSU? KIRBY!!

By the way, I strongly agree with the line coming down which I think this week, one can get some good lines later in the week and this game is one of them 

I want Indiana to be out of the top 4 that's where they are most valuable for lines.  If Indy loses this week maybe they are even in the bottom of the top 12 playoff teams.  I love that!  If Indy loses that probably means OSU and Oregon in the big 12 Championship leaving Penn State and Indiana as sleepers in the playoff brackets.  Good teams as Dogs!  That's what I want to see.  Also consider strength of Schedule. In the Big 10 there are 4 elite teams this year Oregon only played Ohio State.  That doesn't give us the info we need about them.  Ohio St played AT Oregon -3 and AT Penn St -3.   This could be a big dog bracket until the final 4.  In my opinion, these bottom bracket teams can up and down with the best of them.  

Having watched Rourke move in the pocket and try to make something happen in the pocket vs Michigan.....I don't think their O-line and Rourke are good enough (yet but could be with greater play/coaching/training before Playoff) to overcome top 5 defenses and Michigan is in that mold as a defense

I am pulling for the Hoosiers however Spottie. 

They deserve my Top 4 rank or #5 in coaches poll...... because they have all of the pieces to compete like Penn St but need a Herculian effort from a key offensive player to overcome like JJ McCarthy could produce when he was doubted in his last 2 years....I would work on Rourke's footwork and lots of off the field work before the Playoff round....I know how to high performance train athletes in 30 days to be that much better but haven't done so in about 10 yrs. Rourke needs extra footwork like stairs/rope and other plyometric work on the field/floor >> sharp cuts etc....that work will get him out of defenders arms and his upper body/core into position to throw from his platform speed improving

I saw JJ's workouts to get ready for NFL and know pro level coaching/training emphasizes lower body speed and stronger upper body strength

@Last2thirst

 Will be on GA as well my friend. 

They have to Cover! 

Hey, is your name a tribute to Hershel Walker at Georgia?

@spottie2935

 Agree, want to get back to Indy covering by double digits!

@DegenNaysh

 Please not this week.  Get smashed this week so all the pressure is off then.  The more they lose by the better the lines. Money lines too  I think Indy will win at least one round in the bracket and when they lose it will be a cover! That is if they are the sleeper I am hoping for. 

UCLA +4 is Play #1 this week for me x 1U - Its DOUBLE UP weekend in tribute to my ole friend who I miss and respect for his fun, MAC Action gems and enjoyment of horses and handicapping with me over many nights together

I lose this one tomorrow, I will find another and it will be for 2U ....lose that, double the next one (I won't go beyond a triple loss)

I am eyeing some other lines but going to have some fun doing it this way this week

Nice thread 2 

@Last2thirst

 We all miss DOUBLE 

great guy on here 

@spottie2935

 +11.5 now on the look-ahead for OSU next week. Can Buckeyes do enough damage on NW this week to make a 14 pop for Indy next week?

UCLA did not cover  on my DOUBLE UP .....

Game #2 in Double UP = was laid last night Texas -12 for 1 Unit and I laid a second UNIT for 1U @-12.5 when UCLA game was over and I see the line is now -13 

-I was playing the line of -12 regardless which I could not believe had dipped that low 

-Arkansas has difficulty vs the pass and their d-line is good but don't think they are push around Horns line/get to the QB good!

Game #3 = S. Carolina - 13 x 1U  so far laid << this becomes my final DOUBLE UP for 4 UNITS if I lose Game #2  (will add before game time)

-this is one of my favorite teams to watch when they play at home.....so much energy and crowd behind them

-they destroyed the Sooners on the road and a hobbled and over rated Tigers team has no business coming in there and hanging with a very tough S.Carolina team who are rolling with a healthy and dominant Sellers at QB

 Just need logical to logically win  - watched the whole Texas game and I shake my head how Sark will quietly put up with the apathy on this Texas team at times. WHERE IS THE F$$KEN URGENCY!!!

Honestly, Texas looks sleepy and getting worse.....like the BIG10 teams used to be and now are what the SEC was >> exciting!

I hang my hat on South Carolina who I have been behind all season and they have played with passion. DOUBLE -UP needs to come through or my season is pretty much done until I see something that makes sense.

Man, I will say it again. So many teams are playing inconsistently except for mostly the BIG 10 best teams 

Cmon S.Carolina!  

Missouri +500 live just incase.Its too close not to.i post all these plays,games, lines early but there is more behind the scenes.  I also post early because the early transparency is important to others.  My record here is important but far down my personal list. 

It doesn't matter Spottie. The writing is on the gambling wall. Take a break is what it says! 

Enjoying NCAAB already, but even there, its a little wild too so that is the nature of the beast with NIL and coach-hotshot player mixes now 

Just going to enjoy watching and betting some parlays here and there or in-game plays.

I just bet Tennessee ML when they hit the 50 yd line and will see if they can proven it 7 - 0 Vols but Georgia has a door open with Boise losing by 2 TDS

I mentioned fading Boise this week as I noticed their offensive explosiveness has slowed down .....SJST +13.5 was the play all week and I looked the other way 

Cheering fun teams now like Ducks.....Zona St......Tex AM....and Colorado .... neon Deion gets back at haters  and finally the Irish who have been one of the most consistent playing teams all year if you look at win style 

My outlook is now changed to view Conference Strength and who beat who/who plays harder schedule to reflect my final rankings starting now. 

 Wins vs Top 15                            SOS of Teams in Past Top 20 Teams

Oregon    2 wins (0)                        #21          beat Ohio St by 1 / beat Boise by 3

Ohio St    1 win   (-1)                        #9          Beat Penn St by 7

Notre Dame 1 win (-1)                     #32         Beat SEC > TexAM by 10 pts/ beat worst Big10 by 59 pts

BYU       1 win   (-1)                        #35          Beat SMU by 3

Georgia 2 wins  (-2)                          #1         Beat Texas by 15/ Beat Tennessee by 14

Ole Miss 1 win (-2)                           #5         Beat Georgia by 18 /S. Carolina by 24

Alabama 1 win (-2)                           #2         Beat Georgia by 7 / S.Carolina by 2

Tennessee  1 win  (-2)                      #7          Beat Alabama by 7

South Carolina 1 win (-3)                #4          Beat Texas AM by 24 / lost to Alabama by 2

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Indiana    0 wins  (0)                       #61        Beat two good 5-5 Big 10 teams

Army       0 wins  (0)                     #119                  -  -  -

Texas      0 wins  (-1)                    #10         Beat a 5-5 good BIG 10 team by 17/ Okla by 31

Penn St   0 wins (-1)                     #15         Beat Illinois by 14

Boise      0 wins  (-1)                    #68         lost to Oregon by 3 / Beat Wash St by 21

Miami     0 wins   (-1)                   #24         Beat a 5-5 SEC team

SMU      0 wins    (-1)                   #47         lost to BYU by 3

Texas AM   0 wins (-2)                 #13          Beat 3-4 good SEC teams

My New Rankings of Strength For the College Playoff:

1. Oregon

2. Ohio St. 

3. Ole Miss

4. Georgia

5. Tennessee

6. Alabama

7. Notre Dame 

8. Texas 

9. Penn St.

10. Indiana (how they fare vs Ohio St determines IF a Playoff team

----------------------------------------------------

11. South Carolina 

12. Texas AM

13. Miami  (not better than 2 SEC teams above them)

14. BYU 

15.  SMU

16. Boise

17. Clemson

18. Missouri

19. Colorado

20. Arizona St.

Next Tier > Tulane, UNLV, Army, Iowa St, Illinois 

Only like 2 lines this week and might be talked into a couple more.....

Week 12 games eyeing:

Notre Dame at home vs Army

Texas AM @ Auburn