Better week than the last two and a good Saturday to bounce back from a bad start Mid-week. Most of my losses were down to the wire. Miami losses by 3 on a last-minute QB sneak, South Car. and NC St. lose by 3, and San Diego St. wins by 2, not 3. Can't complain though, 3/4 2 unit plays won on Saturday and finished the week profitable.
Week 11: 11-10 +1U
Mid-week Bets: (2-4) -2.5U
Buffalo +7 (-115) 1U
Buffalo ML (+215) 0.5U
Ball St./NIU 30.5 1H Over (-120) 1U
Kent St. 21.5 1H TT Over (-105) 1U
UNC 16.5 1H TT Over (-115) 2U
Wyoming +6.5 1H (+105) 1U
Saturday Bets: (9-6) +3.5U
Clemson 26.5 1H TT O (-135) 2U
Baylor +5.5 (-105) 1U
Baylor ML (+180) 0.5U
Syracuse +3 (-110) 1U
Kansas St. -6 (-110) 1U
Georgia Southern ML (+115) 1U
Miami -2.5 (-115) 1U
Georgia -11 1H (-110) 2U
South Carolina -1 (-110) 2U
Colorado St. ML (+115) 1U
Notre Dame -5.5 (-115) 1U
NC State (+105) 0.5U
Arkansas -2.5 (-115) 2U
San Diego St. -3 (-105) 1U
Ole Miss -5.5 1H (-120) 1U
bet matchups not spreads
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Total Season Record: 72-46-1 +24.5 Units
Better week than the last two and a good Saturday to bounce back from a bad start Mid-week. Most of my losses were down to the wire. Miami losses by 3 on a last-minute QB sneak, South Car. and NC St. lose by 3, and San Diego St. wins by 2, not 3. Can't complain though, 3/4 2 unit plays won on Saturday and finished the week profitable.
CMU is on my long list as well … smu doesn’t match up with cincy .. cincy probably by 21+ … I will and have bet large against that matchup every year .. smu matched up better against them last year and down by 30 at half ..
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@bamaontop
CMU is on my long list as well … smu doesn’t match up with cincy .. cincy probably by 21+ … I will and have bet large against that matchup every year .. smu matched up better against them last year and down by 30 at half ..
Locking in some Saturday plays and wanted to give some analysis' on 3 small Dogs I have winning outright in order of confidence.
Navy +4 & ML (+160)
This is more to do with ECU than it is Navy. ECU was a sharp dog last week and pulled the outright win against Memphis and now they have Navy before their biggest game in years, Cincinnati next week. This is a classic sandwich game. For Navy, they last played Notre Dame and had a bye last week. They are healthy and have had 2 weeks to prepare for ECU. You know they are going to come into this game well-disciplined like they always are, while ECU will be anxiously awaiting the upcoming Cincinnati game. Navy has had 3 one-score losses to Houston (who is proving to be something), Cincinnati, and SMU; all offenses far better than ECU. I like Navy to come out with energy, take control of this game and not look back. I've got Navy +4 and ML +160.
Iowa State +4 & ML (+150)
I cashed Baylor +5.5 & ML last week against Oklahoma. Although I don't like this matchup as much as Baylor's, I still see it as a play. Iowa State has had Oklahoma's number the past few years. Oklahoma is clearly having issues and I feel like the locker room doesn't have a clear leader to turn to at the QB position. They just took a huge blow to their confidence after the Baylor loss that essentially killed their playoff chances. Not saying this is a team that quit like Texas, but I can see them coming out and making one or two mistakes and losing confidence fast. I also think that Caleb Williams might have a similar game to Baylor (many rookie mistakes and missed opportunities). This is also an 11 am kickoff and Oklahoma hasn't done well coming out to start these games recently (Baylor & Kansas). Iowa St. is usually a well-coached team that sticks to its style of play and can control the pace of the game and I like that they have a respectable win against Oklahoma State. Senior, Brock Purdy, is facing Oklahoma for his third and final time. He lost by 1 in '19 and 6 in '20. I feel he is itching to take them down in his final game against them. And let us not forget the 2-time thousand-yard rusher Breece Hall that can expose the weak run D that Oklahoma has, much like Baylor did. I see them getting out in front and causing Oklahoma to panic and try to force things to catch up, much like last week. Give me Iowa St. +4 & ML +150.
UAB +4.5 & ML (+175)
UTSA is due to fall. We know as much as they do that this is uncharted territory for the Roadrunners. Oftentimes coaches that are deep into an undefeated season at a school like this feel like they need to change things up. The players start to play NOT TO LOSE instead of playing to win... and inevitably lose because of it. UAB is a tough team that runs and passes the ball well. I also like the fact that this isn't the toughest team they will have faced. They've played Georgia, Liberty, and also have a win @ Tulane. UTSA's last 4 opponents were Southern Miss. (who they were tied with until the 4th Q.), UTEP, LA Tech, and Rice. Not very tough for the Roudrunners. Maybe UAB comes out with a fire that UTSA isn't used to and takes control. Oh yeah, UTSA's strength of schedule is 126th out of 130 FBS teams... I'll take UAB +4.5 & ML +175 here.
bet matchups not spreads
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Locking in some Saturday plays and wanted to give some analysis' on 3 small Dogs I have winning outright in order of confidence.
Navy +4 & ML (+160)
This is more to do with ECU than it is Navy. ECU was a sharp dog last week and pulled the outright win against Memphis and now they have Navy before their biggest game in years, Cincinnati next week. This is a classic sandwich game. For Navy, they last played Notre Dame and had a bye last week. They are healthy and have had 2 weeks to prepare for ECU. You know they are going to come into this game well-disciplined like they always are, while ECU will be anxiously awaiting the upcoming Cincinnati game. Navy has had 3 one-score losses to Houston (who is proving to be something), Cincinnati, and SMU; all offenses far better than ECU. I like Navy to come out with energy, take control of this game and not look back. I've got Navy +4 and ML +160.
Iowa State +4 & ML (+150)
I cashed Baylor +5.5 & ML last week against Oklahoma. Although I don't like this matchup as much as Baylor's, I still see it as a play. Iowa State has had Oklahoma's number the past few years. Oklahoma is clearly having issues and I feel like the locker room doesn't have a clear leader to turn to at the QB position. They just took a huge blow to their confidence after the Baylor loss that essentially killed their playoff chances. Not saying this is a team that quit like Texas, but I can see them coming out and making one or two mistakes and losing confidence fast. I also think that Caleb Williams might have a similar game to Baylor (many rookie mistakes and missed opportunities). This is also an 11 am kickoff and Oklahoma hasn't done well coming out to start these games recently (Baylor & Kansas). Iowa St. is usually a well-coached team that sticks to its style of play and can control the pace of the game and I like that they have a respectable win against Oklahoma State. Senior, Brock Purdy, is facing Oklahoma for his third and final time. He lost by 1 in '19 and 6 in '20. I feel he is itching to take them down in his final game against them. And let us not forget the 2-time thousand-yard rusher Breece Hall that can expose the weak run D that Oklahoma has, much like Baylor did. I see them getting out in front and causing Oklahoma to panic and try to force things to catch up, much like last week. Give me Iowa St. +4 & ML +150.
UAB +4.5 & ML (+175)
UTSA is due to fall. We know as much as they do that this is uncharted territory for the Roadrunners. Oftentimes coaches that are deep into an undefeated season at a school like this feel like they need to change things up. The players start to play NOT TO LOSE instead of playing to win... and inevitably lose because of it. UAB is a tough team that runs and passes the ball well. I also like the fact that this isn't the toughest team they will have faced. They've played Georgia, Liberty, and also have a win @ Tulane. UTSA's last 4 opponents were Southern Miss. (who they were tied with until the 4th Q.), UTEP, LA Tech, and Rice. Not very tough for the Roudrunners. Maybe UAB comes out with a fire that UTSA isn't used to and takes control. Oh yeah, UTSA's strength of schedule is 126th out of 130 FBS teams... I'll take UAB +4.5 & ML +175 here.
love those Navy + UAB plays. ISU is tough - feel like I've consistently been on the wrong side of those guys (one way or the other) for years so prolly a pass on that one.
BOL
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love those Navy + UAB plays. ISU is tough - feel like I've consistently been on the wrong side of those guys (one way or the other) for years so prolly a pass on that one.
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