Week 13 Lines + Picks

Is Michigan weakening? Is Georgia getting stronger? Should FSU or Washington be in the Playoff??

Also, I noticed teams that recently hit 6 wins in the previous week before, fell flat and some even lost knowing that they hit the magic 6 ball number for their bowl lottery tickets.... might just fade some 6 win teams this week

Games I am zeroed in on for drama (likely taking motivated side as sides or Teasers): 

Miss St needs to beat Ole Miss ....can they pull a rabbit out of the hat in their in- state rivalry? Bet they try!

Nebraska needs to beat Iowa .... to gain a ticket and only have Iowa

C. Michigan needs to beat Toledo .... who almost coughed up the BWG game last week and look to be sleeping

TCU need to slay Oklahoma .... doubt they will, but you never know so if line too high....hmmm

Texas San-Ant. rolling on a long win streak going into Tulane who is legit top 25 team .... this line could be exploited?

Utah St  needs one more win and plays a New Mex team that had the biggest upset of the week along with New Mex St.

Boise got 6th win, now expect regression vs AF?? 

Texas Tech got their 6th win, now they take the foot off and Texas gets revenge for last year?

Oregon will likely stomp Beavers if the Beavs go with this freshman QB and I believe Ducks can accomplish a few things by winning this game easily..... impress committee...elevate Nix for Heisman and beat a rival who has had a great year and on the rise but Ducks will want to show the recruiting classes they are AAA instead of AA team material

NIU should romp going for their 6th win ....taking them all depends on the line

HAVE TO TAKE BUCKEYES if I am getting +3.5 but the TEASER is better! Yes, I am a Wolverine fan but $$, I am a big fan even more  .....so I might be doing parlays with Wolverines to win but wait for line gymnastics to settle...don't think a freshman QB can come in and beat the Wolverines here and upstage McCarthy and the boys

UCF should romp trying to get 6th win and this will be an OVER as Houston will play a loosey goosey game 

Rice needs a 6th win, but check injury report and wait....Daniels under concussion protocol and second best RB is day to day

.....will have more while I look at lines opening

Betting with your head and NOT your heart!

I do not like the early lines......... although NEBRASKA is quite appealing. I am going to use them +6 most likely TEASED 

Waiting on the rest of the lines....

Final Summary Week 12:

 2 - 0  ATS/Totals  (+3 Units)

+$50 Exotics

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Season Record: 33 - 18 - 1    ATS/ SIDES = 64.7%  <<< best season yet

(+25 Units  and down $1000 on exotic wagers)

Thanks, yes 

I learned a lot doing so this year. Stock Market has been tough too so I can't have my picking in losses.

AFTER WEEK #12  - BEST (what I think it should be + how I think it will end up)

 1. Georgia

2. Michigan  (loser of Big 10 will play Georgia or Alabama comes in?)

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3. Ohio St. 

4. Washington (go into #4 slot if they can beat Beavers in Oregon)

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5. Oregon  (continue to show why they deserve #4 /both sides of the ball !)

6. Alabama

7. Florida St. ( would lose to all teams above/terrible SOS !)     

8. Texas 

9. Louisville

10. LSU  

 Next Group:  (will arrange for week 13)

11. Missouri 

12. Penn St.    

13. Kansas St.

14. Ole Miss

15. Arizona

16. Oklahoma  

17. Notre Dame

18. Oregon St. 

19. SMU

20. Tennessee

   MAYBE.....  

21. Clemson

22. Kansas 

23. Texas AM

24. Utah

25. UNC

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26. NC State

27. Liberty

28. UCLA

29. Iowa

30. Tulane  / Okie St./ James Mad./  Troy / UNLV/ New Mexico St.

Agree

Like Ohio State myself

PLAY #1 - BUCKEYES/MICHIGAN OVER 46.5  x 2 U  <<< bet you thought I would say UNDER...... look at the scores of the last 5 games between them!!

I am just using logic here.....and won't mind losing this bet. I will be on OHIO ST +11 Teaser and Michigan ML parlays paying 1.6

Play #2 - UNDER E. Mich 41 >>> weather play x 2U

-E.Mich can play defense and Bulls as well.... 20 MPH cross wind and lots of rain so turnovers in the mid field I hope

First set of Teasers HALF U each with 7 pts:

A. FLIGHT >> Buckeyes +11 with UNDER E. MICH 48 with:

1. Miss St +18.5

2. Nebraska +6

3. Central Mich +19

4. UTSA +9.5

5. Texas -7 

6. Utah St -1.5

B. FLIGHT   > Michigan +3 with Oregon -7 with: 

1. Nebraska +6

2. Missouri -0.5

3. Air Force +13.5

4. Utah St -1.5

5. C. Michigan +19

6. E. Michigan +13.5

Now I am fishing for some Saturday line value.....only Michigan line open on BET365

Look at the TOTAL plunging for EMich-Buffalo  I got 41 and 48 teased and now down to 38!

Down 3 pts in an hour......got all teasers bet on 365 and other 2 plays 

Now, I look for combos in my parlay with Michigan

NEBRASKA TEASERS are +7 by the way ...changed a lot as it was Even when I played , now I see Iowa -1 so I could have had +8

Final Bet:  (UNLESS something pops up that I missed)

Michigan ML parlay with Bama ML with UCF  ML with Washington ML >> pays better than 2.5 U x 2U

Might play the same parlay but switch out UCF ML on one and drop in RICE if I know the QB is gonna play.....and do a 1U also this time, dropping out Washington and plugging in Rice << not official play yet x 1 U for each of those

It seems like Michigan has something up their sleeve .. they've been very vanilla on offense for most of the year..

@Last2thirst

 E mich down to 35.5 now. 

I have watched enough of their play to know they can find the open receiver if they need to in the end zone and deep sideline passes and McCarthy is an excellent thrower on the rollout like Caleb W. is.....that impressed me in some games but yes, they haven't needed to open up their offense play book with the other components of their offense and defense being so strong.

The question in the game will be, will OSU get their RB game going against this defense? And can Harrison be covered enough for McCord to be confused....because the Wolverine LBs have some good speed to stick with crisscoss pass patterns that are short if he has to check down

Amazing that people didn't grab the 41....the first thing I tend to look at and it usually makes my Play #1 or #2 list....is to look at COVERS weather and if it shows a crosswind at 17 mph or higher, I tend to jump on these because the winds almost certainly deliver 5-6 days later and often, the wind gusts are higher.....both teams here on top of it, can defend the pass and its going to be rainy so I expect a lot of running plays and the safeties playing close to the line....CBs instructed to play man on man in this wind, on a lot of plays and mixing in zone to confuse the QB at the line

Nice to get some $$ in early as I have started my NCAAB thread:

Play #2 - UNDER E. Mich 41 >>> weather play x 2U  <<< another weather play winner

E. Mich needed the win to bowl and got it....should have been all over this moneyline but what I am doing is working

Summary for this week: 

PLAY #1 - BUCKEYES/MICHIGAN OVER 46.5  x 2 U 

Play #2 - UNDER E. Mich 41 >>> weather play x 2U 

set of Teasers HALF U each with 7 pts:

A. FLIGHT >> Buckeyes +11 with UNDER E. MICH 48   with:

1. Miss St +18.5  

2. Nebraska +6  

3. Central Mich +19  

4. UTSA +9.5   NO !

5. Texas -7   

6. Utah St -1.5  

B. FLIGHT   > Michigan +3 with Oregon -7  with: 

1. Nebraska +6  

2. Missouri -0.5  

3. Air Force +13.5  

4. Utah St -1.5    

5. C. Michigan +19   

6. E. Michigan +13.5  

ALSO: Michigan ML parlay with Bama ML with UCF  ML with Washington ML >> pays better than 2.5 U x 2U

THIS COULD BE A BIG WEEK TO GET BACK EXOTIC MONEY LOSSES, especially if I get  middie of Michigan winning by 1-3 pts! 

I just checked Alternative spreads and have decided not to hedge Michigan at -11.5 that only plays +260 and Ohio St to win by -11.5 which pays +450 

My hope is, this game falls into a win for Michigan under 11 pts and I scoop all my Exotic $$ WHICH would amount to +$1100 and a winning EXOTIC season after week 13, which would be a miracle. I did not expect to hit 9 out of 10 Teased plays this week so that would be a nice cherry on the top for this season. I am looking at being up about $4000 on a season where I am making mostly $100-200 bets

Enjoy the game....been looking forward to this one for a long time and I think Michigan is as well....they own the Buckeyes lately if you look at the last 5 yrs and this team may be their best yet..... I know this is the best Ohio St. defense in 5 yrs so it should be damn good. 

But remember, Buckeyes have to win with a young QB  ....remember when a young Stetson Bennett undefeated faced a Tua Alabama team undefeated???? It wasn't even close in the bright lights of the game and crowd pressure

Stetson needed some aging and so too did McCarthy in his young push with Michigan 2 years ago....BUT NOW....he is older, better and embraces pressure as a major challenge to shine! Lets see if he can do it! Big fan of McCarthy and his mojo

THIS GAME IS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME #1 and there will be another matchup in January obviously

Final Results this week:

- I am humbled by some of the success this year, its been a magical season and I don't expect it to last 

(just keep working hard and diligently)

Summary for this week: 

PLAY #1 - BUCKEYES/MICHIGAN OVER 46.5  x 2 U  

Play #2 - UNDER E. Mich 41 >>> weather play x 2U 

set of Teasers HALF U each with 7 pts:

A. FLIGHT >> Buckeyes +11  with UNDER E. MICH 48   with:

1. Miss St +18.5  

2. Nebraska +6  

3. Central Mich +19  

4. UTSA +9.5   NO !

5. Texas -7   

6. Utah St -1.5  

B. FLIGHT   > Michigan +3  with Oregon -7  with: 

1. Nebraska +6  

2. Missouri -0.5  

3. Air Force +13.5  

4. Utah St -1.5    

5. C. Michigan +19   

6. E. Michigan +13.5  

ALSO: Michigan ML parlay with Bama ML with UCF  ML with Washington ML >> pays better than 2.5 U x 2U  *TBD*

Final Summary Week 13:

 2 - 0  ATS/Totals  (+4 Units)

+$1120 Exotics (TEASERS) and have one large parlay open that could bring in +$320 profit more 

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Season Record: 35 - 18 - 1    ATS/ SIDES = 66.0%  record / +29 Units 

(+$145 now on exotic wagers < massive turnaround)

Will do my TOP TEAMS update later tonight and looking forward to placing Michigan at #1 again because they earned it and demonstrated it more importantly. GEORGIA has not!

Some thoughts.........

If Michigan is not #1 , then whomever is making this Top 25s are brain dead. Look at the resume of who Ohio St. beat. Look at the resume of who Michigan beat. And then look at the 'in the bubble schedule that Georgia had. (TRUTH: Michigan sort of had the second most easy schedule other than facing PST and OHIOST)

Teams that had 5 wins and needed to get a 6th to bowl, went  11 - 10  which I thought would have been higher, but about 5-6 of those games were against much much stronger opponents

The fact that Kentucky beat the 1st or 2nd best ACC team means that FLORIDA ST should not be a PLAYOFF TEAM. They now have 2 reasons to leave them out of the Top 4

I would vote to push OREGON as the #4 from a statistical, eyetest, SOS and talent perspective. Huskies right now are life and death to seal this win and should do it vs the 6th best team in the Pac 10 ....AND AT HOME!

PAC 12 is almost as good as the SEC this year. I think in the future, the top four should be continued and then they pit 8 teams to play > 2 best non power 5 vs the 2 best conferences with teams who did not make the final 4, then add the next 2 best ranked teams. THIS KIND OF FORMAT, would prevent teams playing possum and not trying and instead being strategic 

The PAC 12 deserves to have 2 teams in the Championship 4 ....and Big 10 .....BUT you could make an argument for SEC with Georgia and Bama and if a conference had 2 teams in the final 4, I would only add their 3rd best team

So if this was next year, I would go: 

Michigan vs Oregon

Georgia vs Washington

....AWAIT......

Ohio St. vs Liberty (2nd best non Power 5)

Alabama vs Florida St

Texas vs Penn St. 

SMU  vs Oklahoma

Winners by seed would be:   Ohio St #5 , Alabama #6, Texas #7 and SMU #8

Michigan plays SMU

Georgia plays Texas

Washington plays Alabama

Oregon plays Ohio St.

Michigan plays highest seed (Alabama)

Georgia plays Ohio St

Michigan plays Georgia in the final

AFTER WEEK #13  - BEST 

1. MICHIGAN!

2. Georgia

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3. Washington

4. Oregon

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5. Ohio St.

6. Alabama

7. Texas  

8. Florida St. (what a joke if they make final 4!!)

9. LSU

10. Missouri 

 Next Group: 

11. Penn St.

12. Ole Miss    

13. Arizona

14. Ole Miss

15. Oklahoma

16. Notre Dame

17. SMU

18. Tennessee

19. Louisville

20. Clemson

   MAYBE.....  

21. Kansas

22. Kansas St.

23. Oregon St.

24. NC State

25. Liberty

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26. Utah

27. Iowa

28. Kentucky

29. Tulane

30. Iowa St./ Okie St.  / UNC / Duke /  WVU / Texas AM./ James Madison