Week 13 observations and overreactions

Regular season (for most) is in the books, another doozy of a weekend with massive shakeups for the Playoffs

Friday:

T's & P's to Utah State bettors, that was as wild a swing on a spread in the final few minutes as we've seen all season

Tulane took down Cincy on the road to set up an AAC Championship Game rematch with UCF next week

What happened to Drake Maye the last 2 weeks?  His name was getting a little Heisman hype then he fell off after the Wake win.  UNC kicker costs them again

The Huskers played their Bowl game and upset Iowa who would have locked up the Big10 West with a win.  Petras was injured early and Nebraska tried their best to give the game away but they held off at the end

UCLA held off Cal which set off a crazy chain of events for Saturday for 2nd place Pac12 tie-breakers, more later

Florida and Florida State played a barn burner with the Noles coming out on top late.  AR15 took the game over but didn't have enough help late as the Gators were missing multiple top WRs.  Very nice 9 win regular season for the Noles who were a popular RSW Under play in the summer

Saturday:

The Game turned into The Domination as Michigan blew away OSU in the 2nd half.  A lot to get to here....  It played out for both teams in the 1st half similar to how their seasons have gone.  Ohio State looked great on the first drive scoring a TD then settled for FGs.  Michigan started slow and was down at half but actually covered the 1H spread for I believe the 1st time in Conference play.  2nd half as usual Michigan settled in, but OSU did not.  Booger McFarland summed it up perfectly calling DC Jim Knowles gameplan "arrogant" as he left his DB's out to dry in single man coverage all game without a single adjustment.  Michigan scored TD's of 45, 69, 75, 75 and 85.  Unreal failure from the guy brought in by the Buckeyes.  On offense, Stroud was trying to be perfect again, tempo was inconsistent and there seemed to be a disconnect between players and coaches as to how aggressive they wanted to be.  1st & 35 run?  That drive ended with a 4th & 6 back in UM territory and they punted.  Michigan won the mental battle, baiting OSU into 2 personal fouls that were costly.  The defense was great the first few drives but after the 1st long TD (which was a great play by McCarthy getting the ball out as he was swarmed) it got too easy for Michigan.  WIDE OPEN receivers on all the TD passes after.  It reminded me of the Game 7 between the Spurs and Heat when the Spurs let Lebron shoot open shots saying "if you beat us like this, so be it".  And it backfired in spectacular fashion.  Who would have thought that Blake Corum being out would have actually helped Michigan?   OSU has a lot of question marks now.  

Speaking of question marks, where the hell has this version of Spencer Rattler been?  Dude took out 2 potential Playoff teams in 2 weeks, matched his TD pass total from the entire season and looked like the QB everyone was drooling over a few years ago.  

Georgia started slow but pummeled the Jackets in the 2nd half

Purdue is making their 1st Big10 Championship Game appearance!

The team every fan outside of Tuscaloosa is dreading seeing in the Playoff is Bama, don't worry they won't be there.  Iron Bowl was chippy, even Saban got bloodied up (by his own player).  Auburn chose to kick a FG late to make it a 15 point game, Bama decided to go down and score to put the final number on 22 which was a win/lose/draw number for anyone who bet the spread

Civil War had a team up by 24 points in the 2nd half and their opponent did not attempt a pass on their final 5 drives.  That team up 24 won the game easily right?  Wrong!  The Beavers pounded the ball on the Ducks who were willing victims and had a few turnovers along the way including a fumbled punt attempt on their own 1 and another failed 4th & 1 at their own 29 (same as UW game).  Beavers comeback was epic to say the least, Oregon would have been in the P12 Title game with a win, but would need help after the L

Utah blew out Colorado, putting themselves in position to make the Title game with a Washington win

TCU played their most dominant game of the season

UCF jumped out 28-7 before losing Plumlee and had to fight off a USF comeback 

A&M saved their best for last taking down LSU and ending their slim Playoff hopes

That slurping sound you heard during the USC-ND game was Chris Fowler publicly fellating Caleb Williams for 3+ hours.  The best was on a 3rd & 20ish scramble when Williams ran another 15-20 back and completed a pass on the sideline Fowler screamed "Heisman moment!  1st Down!!!!" before Herbstreit had to correct him and say it was only a 12 yard completion and it was 4th & 8.  Yes, Williams is a great player... he's also in Lincoln Riley's Plug & Play system where anyone (Baker, Kyler, Jalen) can look like the greatest QB to ever play.  Only Rattler (who didn't care) failed in that system even though he did put up video game numbers on cupcakes

Tennessee had no letdown as they crushed Vandy (a very popular tout pick this week) 56-0.  Style points I guess

KState ran over Kansas to lock up the 2nd spot for the Big12

Late night Apple Cup (Horrible start time btw for a game with as many implications as it had) had the Huskies pulling away in the 4th quarter.  Penix was great again, and the win sends Utah to the P12 Title Game because of a tie breaker on strength of conference record which looks to be the 4th tie-breaker on the list

There you have it.  Title games are set, Playoff picture is looking like 5 teams for 4 spots.   

I have:

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. TCU

4. USC

5. Ohio State

Bama at 6 but has no business in the conversation, ESPN and the Committee will have 'the talk' about them, but they didn't do enough to merit a berth.  You will hear repeatedly "4 BEST teams".  They simply weren't there this year, and the teams they lost to tanking late doesn't help their cause.  USC will have to avenge their loss to the Utes, KState will have revenge on their minds against TCU.  Georgia and Michigan should cruise, but Purdue can be pesky.  OSU will need a TCU or USC loss and hope the Committee views the Big10 more highly than either Big12/Pac12.  

It looks like we have a differing slate of Title Games ahead. The Saturday night games look terrible. Clemson UNC with no playoff implications on the line. Michigan should blow out Purdue in Indianapolis.

USC slightly favored over Utah. Everyone keeps saying USC can be dominated in the trenches. Utah won at home by going for two! USC probably avenges their only loss and makes the playoff because they have the best player on the field. My heart pulls for Cam Rising to play any better than he did against Oregon.

Fresno and Boise in Boise. No Haener last time. I think this is a great game that comes down to the wire. Go Bulldogs!

TCU K State at Noon is a fantastic one as well. No matter what QB plays for K State, they will be ready to spoil a season potentially. Give me K State here for the upset. 

Gotta rant on Oregon. Against Washington tied at 34, Lanning goes for it and gets stuffed. Washington kicks the FG. Now they blow a HUGE lead against Oregon State. Cristobal and now Lanning. Two losers. This could have been a playoff team. They got blown out by Georgia but should have run the table to this point. Lanning has terrible clock management and doesn’t know when to punt. How do these people get jobs?

Lastly, looks like Georgia wins the title from what I see. They’re too physical, too fast, and haven’t peaked in a long while. They won’t have to either until the Semifinals. I’m hoping someone else can take them down. USC has great value but will have a dog fight to get in the Semifinals. Look forward to the next weekend of games fellas!

UCF absolutely lives and dies with Plumlee, damndest thing I’ve seen. 
 
 Not sure it was style points with Vols, Vandy just looked absolutely inept. Not sure where the team that came out last two weeks was, and whatever Heupel says, there was a locker room problem last week.

 Michigan will beat Georgia for Natty.

 Rushing the field is outta hand and means nothing anymore. Noles beat a 6-6 team and storm field? A&M finally shoes some potential and beats a 3 loss team and storms? Just stop it.

 Good insight, info and reflection you provided all year, always a good Sunday read, thanks. Season goes by quicker the older I get.

A few other things..

Dabo said "DJ is my guy", DJ went 8 for 29 (28%) 99 yards yesterday against South Carolina

Texas Tech won in OT against the Sooners, and it is the 1st time in school history that they beat Texas and Oklahoma in the same season

Liberty must have known Hugh Freeze was leaving as they were blown out by 35 as 24.5 faves against NMSU

James Madison finishes 1st in the Sun Belt East in their 1st year of FBS play, but that makes them ineligible for Conf Title Game or a Bowl

Kurt Warner's kid threw for 527 and 5 TD's for Temple

Every FBS team won at least 1 game this season.   Northwestern is the only team to not win a game in North America, but is the only team undefeated in Europe

Hey willie taggerts available ??????????

That Oregon ending.....

QB Calab got called for pass interference against ND.  When was the last time a QB did that?

Georgia defense is the best (11.2 pts).  So, the offense must get the ball a lot.  Yet, they only average 38.2 pts a game.  A weak area?

David Shaw is quitting.  Good time to get out now that USC is back.  

Pac -12 has 6 teams in the top 20.  Not bad.  

Saban should retire.  He will be expected to win more and that isn't going to happen.  

Lane Kiffin is no fool.  

@1969USC

 Agreed about Sabin n Kiffin…..Lane did a helluva job leveraging Auburn for a huge raise

That slurping sound you heard during the USC-ND game was Chris Fowler publicly fellating Caleb Williams for 3+ hours. 

My thoughts. Georgia, Michigan and TCU in no matter if they win or lose. USC wins and IN. Loss then more than likely Ohio State but while I respect BW, Alabama lost by 1 and 3 both on the road. They did not get boat raced by 20+ at home. Alabama strength of schedule better than Ohio State. Hell, I would argue that the PAC 12 was overall stronger than the Big 10. But in the end, if USC loses, Ohio State will be the 4th team. 

great job  kid...

Late November football is just different. LSU is a prelude to what we will see a lot when the playoffs expand. LSU had Nothing to play for yesterday and it showed. No pride. Zero urgency. I would rather keep it at 4 if that is the case. The SEC West champ should never lose to the worst team in the division in the last game of the season under any circumstances. 

After logging over 14 hours of CFB viewing yesterday a few things are clear.......

 Pac-12 refs believe they MUST be part of the game. The amount of fabricated calls was astounding.......clear TD's needed to be scrutinized & overturned whenever possible........& missed calls as usual......holding is an option out west. My fav was when a Washington TE was speared in the head while laying on his back. Play was halted while they helped him off the field.....ample time to review the play......& nothing. It was plain as day. I guess they felt the phantom PI call a little later made up for it.

 Vandy is still a bad team. I suffered their upset of Fla. last week.......but refused to take the bait, & the points, this week vs. Hooker-less Tenn.

 Georgia is the closest thing to a "great team" we have this season..........lots of good teams but they're a notch above the rest. They'll have to pitch in & help someone beat them in the playoffs.

 I honestly believe Utah wasn't trying to embarrass Colorado yesterday, but it was unavoidable. The Utes took care of biz early, as they should've, but Colorado proved to be like trees all day......90% air. Letting off the gas didn't matter.

 Speaking of the Utes, I like their chances vs SC. Whittingham vs. Riley-Part II should be interesting. Glad to see the CG in Vegas from now on.

 I've no idea who will take the Stanford job.....

.......congrats to Clay Helton as his Georgia Southern team knocked off App St. to go 6-6 & become bowl eligible.

@BWS77

 Outstanding write up…One of the best I have ever seen here on Covers!  

Mugg, I didn't see that play with the spear but I did forget to mention that yesterday was the first time I can remember not seeing a single Targeting call or review.  

Bama Case Makers...  let's not forget Ohio State won all 11 games by 10 points or more.   Bama was a whiffed sack away from losing to Texas against a one-legged backup, an un-timed down at the 2 from losing at home to A&M and Ole Miss had 1st and goal at the end.  They won those games, but they weren't impressive and that is why they have been sitting where they are sitting

I agree. You could make a case that being 11-1 but not having to play a conference championship isn't the worst spot to be. I despise the fact that USC could play themselves OUT of the playoffs but Ohio State could sit at home and get IN.

They had nothing to play for?! They were ranked 5th... a TCU and USC loss and the obvious OSU/MICH loser and LSU could have been the first 2-loss team in the playoffs. If they had zero pride or urgency, it certainly wasn't because they didn't have anything to play for. I think LSU is what they were all season... an average team that won a few close games. Loss to FSU, 4 points over Auburn, Loss to Tenn, gave up 35 to Florida, 1 point over Bama, 3 points over Arkansas, and a 2 TD loss at home to A&M. 

The best of Michigan/Ohio State pregame posts;

@lookingtowin

If I tell you you are going to get paid at work whether you show up for work or not are you going to go ALL out like you are at work from home?  LSU has been slotted in the SEC championship game for 3 weeks playing against teams who had very little to play for but was willing to put up a fight against them.  How hard would LSU practice and prepare to beat Arkansas, UAB, and Texas A&M when they are guaranteed a spot in the championship game already?  That's 3 games that mean nothing to them. In the NFL this would not be a problem because you are ALWAYS playing for your job. NIL has been paid and the checks have been cashed.  The season ended for LSU when they beat Bama and were guaranteed a spot in the championship game. 

People would want to see Georgia - Ohio St in addition to them deserving it??