Week 13: YTD: 53-48 +12.5Units

Happy Thanksgiving! 

1U Michigan -3. 

I'm a Michigan fan, but laying a FG feels light to me. Obviously, it's possible they lose this game, but here's why I like them. 

This game (like most) has historically been won in the tranches. Both teams have strong defenses that can create issues for the opposing offense, but I think overall Michigan has the stronger front 7. An interesting matchup to watch is both teams ability to control the edge. Defensively, Michigan has to control the edge to contain Henderson and force things to the middle of the field where I think their defensive line will dominate; If Michigan can keep things between the tackles in the run game they can get OSU behind the sticks and despite the strong receiver core that OSU has, that can be an advantage to Michigan. McCord has struggled under pressure and doesnt seem to be a big threat with his legs, which has been what hurt Michigan the most against PSU and even maryland to a degree. Michigan should be able to create enough pressure to make McCord uncomfortable. Turnovers are another thing to keep an eye on, Michigan has dominated in turnover margin and I think the Wolverines can put themselves in position to force some turnovers with that receipe. 

On the flip side of the ball, the biggest questions I have for Michigan is JJ's health; he appears to have been banged up in the Purdue game and then aggrivating it further against PSU; hopefully he's close to 100% for this one. The other question I have is at Tackle; It appears that Henderson and Hinton should both be good to go against the buckeyes. I think we continue to see more rushing attempts with Corum, Edwards, and I thinK Mullings plays a larger role in this game as the Wolverines will look to wear on the buckeyes defense and slow the pass rush to tee up some shots. While I think the OSU defense is stout, I think it's showed some vulnerability in the run game against better competiton. Penn State seemed to open up some good run lanes, but with questionable playcall they seemed to get away from it. Anyways, the point being, I do think Michigan can establish the run here and scheme up some deep shots for JJ. This will be the best receiving core the Buckeyes have faced and they can create difficult matchups with their TEs and Edwards in the passing game. 

That's a long winded, freestyle way of saying that I see more of a path for Michigan to have consistent offensive success then I do the buckeyes. Saturday can't come soon enough. 

1U Bama -13.5

I was hoping this would drop under two TDs and I want to snag it while it sits there. While I don't think Bama has fully turned a corner, they are a much improved team and they are in do or die mode, style points won't hurt either. Both teams had what was essentially a bye week last week, only one of them came out victorious. I think Nick Saban and Co will come out swinging early in this one and I wonder how Auburn might respond if they get punched in the face early. 

Bama has the stronger roster that has developed throughout the year and I imagine that their defense will be able to severly limit Auburn's offensive attack and Milroe presents a challnege for Auburn that I don't believe they've faced. I think Bama lands a few hits early and cruise to the SEC championship game. 

I'll be back with more plays as I place them; here's what I'm leaning; 

Iowa +2.5 or ML

Mizzou -9

Oregon -13.5

OSU/MICH Over (sitting at 47 right now- it's bounced around a bit)

LSU/A&M Under 66

UNLV -2.5

FSU -6.5

GA -24

UCLA -10

@Juicedd

1U LSU/A&M under 66.5: 

I think the Aggie defense can do enough to slow down the LSU offense and force them into some punts or FG attempts. I don't think this is a game that LSU gets to 40 in. Obviously LSU's defense has been leaky all year, but A&M's offense is not the most explosive and they will have to go into Death Valley which will make the task taller. I think A&M will try to limit possessions in this game and do enough defensively to keep this game played in the 50s. 

1U UNLV -2.5 I've said it before, I really like what Odom has done with this team.  San Jose state has been hot lately, but I think UNLV is a battle tested team. The tempo of UNLV's offense can create issues for San Jose state and I just don't imagine UNLV losing this one at home. Give me the Rebels under a FG. 

1U Clemson/ S. Car Under 49.5: Gamecocks struggle against teams they can't block, Clemson is one of those teams. I anticipate the Clemson defense blanketing the Gamecocks on offense. It's also a rivalry game on the road, so I think it's possible that Clemson struggles some on offense. I like Clemson to roll in this one but don't imagine that it becomes a shootout. May lay the points w/ Clemson if it dips to under a Td. 

Leaning: 

Lousiville -7.5: 

UCLA -9:

BOL.