UCLA will likely be higher than 23 at home vs. Memphis. They are favored by more than that this week, on the road vs. UVA. I also agree with the others that no way Oregon is a dog at home, even vs. a good school like MSU.
But definitely too early to even worry about this, we're still a three weeks away from the 1st week!!!
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UCLA will likely be higher than 23 at home vs. Memphis. They are favored by more than that this week, on the road vs. UVA. I also agree with the others that no way Oregon is a dog at home, even vs. a good school like MSU.
But definitely too early to even worry about this, we're still a three weeks away from the 1st week!!!
I give Oregon a power rating of 122.75 + homefield 5.5 = 128.25 and Michigan St. a rating of 132.25, so 132.25-128.25 = -4 in favor of Michigan St
strippersnbens,
Good thread topic. Are all of these line guesses based on your power ratings? Based on this answer, it appears they might be. Or is a portion of your list true SWAGs at a line? ..... why do I sense a PR number, value conversation coming on?
Golden Nugget did open at -13 in June. Not sure what it is currently. 5dimes has the game currently at 14. It's available under their Prop bets. I'm locked in on MSU +14 for 1 unit. BTW, other lines listed for week 2 are:
Pitt -4 at BC +4
WSU -5 at Nevada +5
USC +4 at Stanford -4
San Diego State +22 at North Carolina -22
BYU +5.5 at Texas -5.5
Michigan +5 at Notre Dame -5
Virginia Tech +17.5 at Ohio State -17.5
Colorado State +10.5 at Boise State -10.5
....they also list several GOY lines for weeks 3 & beyond if anyone likes to use this "data" to cheat/build your own PR numbers and then modify from that starting point.
I'll have to go back and look at your list a little closer now and see how it compares to 5dimes and also see what leans I have.
Best of Luck! And grab the Spartans!
TD
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Quote Originally Posted by strippersnbens:
I give Oregon a power rating of 122.75 + homefield 5.5 = 128.25 and Michigan St. a rating of 132.25, so 132.25-128.25 = -4 in favor of Michigan St
strippersnbens,
Good thread topic. Are all of these line guesses based on your power ratings? Based on this answer, it appears they might be. Or is a portion of your list true SWAGs at a line? ..... why do I sense a PR number, value conversation coming on?
Golden Nugget did open at -13 in June. Not sure what it is currently. 5dimes has the game currently at 14. It's available under their Prop bets. I'm locked in on MSU +14 for 1 unit. BTW, other lines listed for week 2 are:
Pitt -4 at BC +4
WSU -5 at Nevada +5
USC +4 at Stanford -4
San Diego State +22 at North Carolina -22
BYU +5.5 at Texas -5.5
Michigan +5 at Notre Dame -5
Virginia Tech +17.5 at Ohio State -17.5
Colorado State +10.5 at Boise State -10.5
....they also list several GOY lines for weeks 3 & beyond if anyone likes to use this "data" to cheat/build your own PR numbers and then modify from that starting point.
I'll have to go back and look at your list a little closer now and see how it compares to 5dimes and also see what leans I have.
Call it a gut level take on a few of these... not leans at this point.
FAU +45 at Alabama. I'd take FAU and the points. These are the kind of games Saban always seems to win 38-7 with a low scoring second half so he has some teaching points in practice the next week before he goes out and throttles Arkansas 52-0 again in conference play.
EMU at Florida -26. I'd take Florida, but that will not be the line. If UF is -35ish against Idaho, the line will be the same or higher vs. EMU.
Ohio U. at Kentucky -1. Like Kentucky and their young talent over this slightly above average MAC team with some issues on offense to start the year.
NIU at NU.... I think 11 is about right, but will say I am hoping for less as I will likely fade NIU for three straight non-conf games (NU, UNLV & Arkansas) as the new QB will struggle. Unless the true freshman wins the job and is a real player from day 1. I am more familiar with McIntosh and Hare. Surprised Hare didn't pan out better by now and win the job in the spring. This is not a Lynch replacing Harnish situation. Not even close.
Like you, I like USC vs. Standford, but at the +4 available.
Texas Tech -15 at UTEP just seems low, but I confess I know minimal about UTEP at this time and do know that TT didn't play any defense down the stretch last year and has several starters on D to replace as well, so maybe it is closer than I think, but I doubt it. Even if UTEP puts up, say 30.... when TT scores 50+ they still cover.
South Alabama -3 at Kent State. Like South Alabama at that number. Normally I would not consider a week 1 bye team on the road to open the season, but I like them here at that number.
Good stuff. Again, enjoy this type of conversation. Thanks and BOL this year.
TD
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Call it a gut level take on a few of these... not leans at this point.
FAU +45 at Alabama. I'd take FAU and the points. These are the kind of games Saban always seems to win 38-7 with a low scoring second half so he has some teaching points in practice the next week before he goes out and throttles Arkansas 52-0 again in conference play.
EMU at Florida -26. I'd take Florida, but that will not be the line. If UF is -35ish against Idaho, the line will be the same or higher vs. EMU.
Ohio U. at Kentucky -1. Like Kentucky and their young talent over this slightly above average MAC team with some issues on offense to start the year.
NIU at NU.... I think 11 is about right, but will say I am hoping for less as I will likely fade NIU for three straight non-conf games (NU, UNLV & Arkansas) as the new QB will struggle. Unless the true freshman wins the job and is a real player from day 1. I am more familiar with McIntosh and Hare. Surprised Hare didn't pan out better by now and win the job in the spring. This is not a Lynch replacing Harnish situation. Not even close.
Like you, I like USC vs. Standford, but at the +4 available.
Texas Tech -15 at UTEP just seems low, but I confess I know minimal about UTEP at this time and do know that TT didn't play any defense down the stretch last year and has several starters on D to replace as well, so maybe it is closer than I think, but I doubt it. Even if UTEP puts up, say 30.... when TT scores 50+ they still cover.
South Alabama -3 at Kent State. Like South Alabama at that number. Normally I would not consider a week 1 bye team on the road to open the season, but I like them here at that number.
Good stuff. Again, enjoy this type of conversation. Thanks and BOL this year.
I give Oregon a power rating of 122.75 + homefield 5.5 = 128.25 and Michigan St. a rating of 132.25, so 132.25-128.25 = -4 in favor of Michigan St
You shouldn't have called it "line guesses," since these aren't what you think the lines WILL be, but what the lines SHOULD be...
If you actually think Oregon will be an underdog against Mich St at home, I have to wonder what you are thinking... especially given the fact this is a Game of the Year line at some books, and has already been released with Oregon being favored...
What is it you think will happen during week one that will dramatically change the line (by 10+ points) before week 2 lines are released?
Obviously Alabama will NOT be favored by 45 over Bama, Auburn will NOT be favored by 38 over San Jose, and on and on... so your guesses are REALLY bad!
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Quote Originally Posted by strippersnbens:
I give Oregon a power rating of 122.75 + homefield 5.5 = 128.25 and Michigan St. a rating of 132.25, so 132.25-128.25 = -4 in favor of Michigan St
You shouldn't have called it "line guesses," since these aren't what you think the lines WILL be, but what the lines SHOULD be...
If you actually think Oregon will be an underdog against Mich St at home, I have to wonder what you are thinking... especially given the fact this is a Game of the Year line at some books, and has already been released with Oregon being favored...
What is it you think will happen during week one that will dramatically change the line (by 10+ points) before week 2 lines are released?
Obviously Alabama will NOT be favored by 45 over Bama, Auburn will NOT be favored by 38 over San Jose, and on and on... so your guesses are REALLY bad!
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