Week 2 Picks with write ups

First post of the year.  Hope everyone is doing well and excited now that we have football.  This weeks plays below.  Will add some write ups.

4* Kansas -3

3.5* Purdue-VA Tech Under 48.5

3* Tx-Bama Under 54.5

3* Texas Tech +6.5

3* Oklahoma -15.5

2.5* ILL-Kansas Over 56.5

2* Purdue +3

2* Oregon-TT Over 68.5

1.5* Baylor +8

4* Kansas -3

Both coaches are doing a great job with these teams.  I really like Leipold and the scheme they run on offense.  Illinois had a stellar defense last year but lost 3 draft picks in the secondary that were all very good and allowed them to be aggressive.  Walters also left for Purdue.  They played very weak offenses last year and their def will take a step back this year as we already saw against Toledo.  Illinois played a night game Saturday and has 1 less day to prepare since the game is Friday plus they travel.  Kansas is a unique offense that runs a lot of misdirection and motion and is a tough team to prepare for.  Illinois plays a lot of man coverage and like to bring more than 4.  Both QB’s for Kansas had QBR’s over 100 against both pressure and the blitz last year.  Reason for this is both are mobile and they run a lot of motion – makes them tough to pressure – plus they will do a lot of short passes (last year only sacked 12 times).  I really like this matchup for Kansas.  Illinois doesn’t face mobile QB’s in the big ten – hard to believe nowadays but there really were not any last year.  Finn had 75 yds rushing last week against IL.  Kansas basically returns their whole offense and Daniels should play this week – even if he is limited Bean is fine as I expect both will play. 

On the other side Kansas isn’t great on defense but I expect them to be better and closer to average.  Illinois probably upgraded at QB with Altmyer as I thought he played well in the opener.  They are an average offense and could mix in a little tempo at times.  I do think Illinois will score some in this one (hence the over pick).  I felt Kansas wore down last year toward the end as they were banged up and didn’t have great depth.  I think they will be improved and be able to contain Illinois. 

Illinois was outplayed in the opener and should have lost.  I believe Toledo is one of the better non power five teams so Illinois almost losing doesn’t make them a bad team.  I like the matchup with the Kansas offense against the Illinois defense and I believe they will be over 30 pts in this game.  I think think this is a touch spot for Illinois and I expect for Kansas to play well at home.

Prediction:  Kansas by 8

2.5* ILL-Kansas Over 56.5

This line jumped up – I bet it at open at 51.5 and it immediately shot up and hit 59.  I down the play a little at 56.5 as I think that 5 pt swing is big enough for this type of game to drop the rating.  Won’t write up the total – my prediction for the total is 62 pts – so a 35-27 game. 

3.5* Purdue-VA Tech Under 48.5

This line dropped 4 pts and is now back up a little.  Most people will look at the Purdue stats from last week and assume their def isn’t very good.  Walters was the def coord at Illinois last year and does have input on the defense.  One point about the game is that the Fresno QB Keene played an excellent game.  I thought he had one of the better QB performances on Saturday and he showed he is a good QB (was at UCF).  They were 10-17 on 3 downs and he made several good throws during the game.  I don’t see Wells making the throws he made.  Purdue got pressure on him and he still made plays.  I thought Purdue looked good upfront and their secondary wasn’t as bad as the stats looked.  They had 1 blown coverage but it wasn’t like Fresno had guys running all over the place wide open.  Purdue blitzed 45% of the plays and played man 70%.  They got pressure on 30% of the pass plays.  I am not big on Wells – he is very inconsistent and they won’t have as good of an off line as Fresno.  Last year Wells completed 54% against man and 67% against zone – he is a little below avg against pressure and blitz (QBR somewhere around 60).  I think Purdue will get pressure on him and I expect them to limit the running game as well.  I see Wells probably making 1 or 2 mistakes (hopefully not deep in their own territory).

Purdue had 2 off lineman out last week – their backup center got hurt during the game and they had to shuffle the line.  I thought Card played pretty well and he is a decent QB.  VA Tech got 5 sacks last week against a bad ODU team and they do have a defensive minded coach and are in their second year.  I think their def will be solid and being at home will help so I don’t expect Purdue to light up the scoreboard in this one. 

I think both defenses are better than the offenses they are facing.  Both teams will have some issues running the football and I don’t expect a lot of points to be scored.  Tempo should be ok for the total as well – didn’t look like Tech would run any tempo with Harrell as the coordinator.  Biggest risk might be OT as I think this will be a close game. 

Prediction:  44 pts

2* Purdue +3

This line moved a lot from open as action is on Tech.  I don’t see it going above 3 and could see it going to 2.5.  This is a critical game for Purdue as their schedule is brutal.  I think Purdue the teams are close but do believe Purdue is better.  Purdue will get their center Kaltenberger back (anticipated back) which will help.  Its an early kick which makes the environment a little less hostile.  I think Purdue also has the better QB in this game and I look for them to win.

Prediction:  Purdue by 4

Monster info! Nice work and GL 

3* Oklahoma -15.5

Oklahoma came out swinging last week and the game was over after the first quarter.  They seemed focused and ready to put last year behind them.  This bet comes down to if you think they have improved their defense.  Looked better last week but that was Ark St.  I trust that Venables will get the defense fixed as he was known as one of the best defense coordinators in football.  The Oklahoma offense will be tough for anyone to stop and unless we are talking about someone like Georgia I don’t see them being held under 40 at home.  Last year they averaged over 500 yds and 37 pts when Gabriel played.  He is a very good QB and should have a monster year.  They also go very fast and SMU also will play with pace at times so there should be more possessions. 

SMU is a good non power 5 team.  Stone is a decent QB and they will have a solid offense despite losing Mordecai and Rice.  Last week they were up 31-0 at half – this score is misleading as it looks like they just blew LA Tech away.  Their defense dominated the first half and looked good but the offense wasn’t as impressive as you would expect with that score.  They scored on 2 long passes that were basically jump balls in 1 on 1 coverage.  They also had a pick six and ripped off a 65 yd run from their own 10 with 25 sec left to set up a jump ball td with 3 sec left.  SMU brought in a lot of transfers and their def will be greatly improved but that won’t matter against an elite offense like Oklahoma.  They might be able to mix in a few stops but with the pace of this game I don’t see them slowing the Sooners down. The question will be how much they score – I believe they have to be in the 30s to cover this spread – even that might not do it.  I think Oklahoma has improved enough on def to keep them under 30. 

Oklahoma has no look ahead game and appears to be focused coming off the poor season.  They have one of the top QB’s in the country and an offense that will be in the top 5 in the country.  I don’t see SMU slowing them down. 

Prediction:  Oklahoma by 28

3* Tex-Bama  Under 54.5

I am not sold on both QB’s in this one – especially Ewers.  Can’t conclude much from week 1 as both played weak opponents but the Texas defense was dominant against a Rice off that had JT Daniels at QB.  I thought the Texas def was very good last year and probably underrated.  They did lose a few draft picks but do return 6 starters and I like the job their coordinator has done with the def.  Their offense is discussed a lot but I think the strength of this team is the defense.  They were excellent against the run last year and it looks like Bama will run more this year with Milroe at QB.  Bama only returns 2 off lineman from last year.  I think Texas will hold up fine at the line of scrimmage and should be able to contain Bama to some degree.

Texas returns 10 starters on offense and will be good this year.  This week they are going against an elite team and I am not sold on Ewers as I think he is way overrated.  He has shown to be inconsistent (especially downfield) and playing against a team that is always solid on defense especially at home.  Bama only returns 5 starters and did lose some draft picks but that is the norm for them.  They will still be good. 

I think the pace of the game should be ok for the total.  I expect both defenses to play well similar to last years game which was 20-19. 

Prediction:  45 pts 

1.5* Baylor +8

How often do you see a team in college football look completely awful one week then the next week everyone is against them as a result and that same team that looked awful looks like a different team.  This is one of those games.  I do believe when a good team gets embarrassed it causes them to focus at another level for the next game.  Baylor most likely was looking toward this game and they weren’t prepared for Texas St.  I know that Shapen is out but Robertson was a highly touted QB and didn’t play at Miss St because he was behind an excellent QB.  There was some talk about him beating Shapen out anyway so I don’t think there will be the drop off some expect and he has talent around him.  The bigger injury is probably to Lemear their safety – that is concerning and not ideal but I think they will manage.  I am betting this game with the expectation Rising will play as it looks like he will.  Will be interesting to see how his mobility will be impacted. 

Aranda coached with Ludwig the off coord so he knows the offense they run which I think will help.  It will also be 100 degrees for the second half of the game (11am kick will only be in 90s in FH).  This is a case where I think the day game helps Baylor because of the heat.  I do believe Utah is the better team without question but this situation has me playing Baylor as I think they will come out with a ton of urgency in this one and hang around against a very good Utah team.

Prediction:  Utah by 3

Another point on Utah – they are 3-8 the last 2 years against the spread as an away favorite. 

3* Texas Tech +6.5

Here is another game where you have a team coming off an upset loss and now coming back home against a very good opponent.  This isn’t as drastic as Baylor but still a bad loss.  Wyoming is a tricky game and being in high altitude with Oregon on deck was a recipe for disaster for Texas Tech.  Tech has always been a way better team at home.  Last they were 6-1 and 2-0 as an underdog.  Will be a night game so the atmosphere will be good.  This Tech team returns their entire off from last year.  Last week they played a very well coached Wyoming team that plays with discipline and they struggled after the first quarter.  I thought the altitude might have impacted them as the game went on as it was commented on during the game that they weren’t running their offense fast enough.  Tech has a very good offense and runs fast – last year they averaged 39 pts at home against conf teams.  A key on this side is they are playing an Oregon team that only had 18 sacks last year and will have trouble getting pressure rushing 4 which will make Tech very tough to stop. 

The Tech def improved to about average last year.  This year only 6 starters back and they did lose a couple key players.  Def might be a little worse and they are playing a very good offense.  No doubt Oregon will score.  Tech is athletic though so I think that will help in this matchup and will allow them to mix in some stops.  Can’t conclude anything from Oregon’s opener but they should be very good this year. 

I expect a focused Tech team this week and for them to come out with a lot of emotion in this game.  Betting on Tech unfortunately means you have to stomach them going for it on fourth down (drives me nuts).  Game might come down to those downs and if they convert.  This is a tough game for Oregon.  I expect a good pace to the game and a lot of points.  I thought Tech was going to be one of the better teams in the big 12 this year so I think they will play well and find a way to pull off the upset

Prediction:  Texas Tech by 2

2* Oregon-Texas Tech Over 68.5

Won’t do a write up on this one.  Should be a fast pace that will give the total a good chance to go over.  Both teams have very good offenses so I expect both to score. 

Prediction: 82 pts 

Good Fortune this season CFBL Monster

@CFBLMONSTER

 Also a look ahead game for Illi.  That being Penn State.

Nice call last 

Good Luck 

Nice call on the Kansas game.

GL today!

Solid write ups