Posted:
#1
Illinois -1
I have a feeling that everyone on the WC will take Arizona State in this spot. The problem is, they picked up a big win last week, and have this game against Illinois right before their conference opener against USC. Last week they looked unable to stop the run and Illinois has a potent running game. Some will say that Illinois played nobody so far, and I agree with that. But I also fell that they played just enough to start the season 2-0. Illinois has never been a team that kills lesser opponents. Last season they played much better against Missou, Ohio State, Penn State than against NIU or SIU. In games 2-7, road faves or dogs of less than 7 points are 1-21 ATS after OT win if they were favored by more than 3 points in that OT win.
Notre Dame -4.5
Gotta feel sorry for ND. Statistically they should be 2-0 SU and ATS winning and covering by large margins. Unfortunatelly for them and their backers they are 0-2 SU and ATS, thanks to an enormous number of turnovers. But turnovers are a specific stat that tends to even out. Its almost like bad beats and lucky winners in gambling. This is not the first time a 0-2 team loses first two game as favorite. The last 34 times it happened they covered the game #3 spread 24 times. It is not the first time that they face a team without a loss in week 3. It happened 5 times and the they covered the spread all 5 times by a rather huge margin. Last season ND lost to MCHST in overtime. And last season MCHST was one of the luckiest teams ever. Time for revenge.
San Jose State +7
Its just natural for a recreational bettor to take a road fave that used to dominate the opponent if both teams are off of similar results the previous week. The logic is, team A was better last year than team B and they will bounce back. In real world the things do not work like that. Road faves of 11 or less, after a road dog loss are 2-23 ATS against teams that lost as road dogs the previous week, if they won at least last 2 meetings by a margin of 43 points or more. Nevada lost too much talent from last season and San Jose State gained a lot of valuable experience from last season when they used tons of young players. This is SJSU first home game of the season and probably the first situation that favors them. In first two weeks they played on the road against big PAC 10 schools with a lot to prove. Now they are at home against a team that is in rebuilding year. Payback is a bitch.
I have a feeling that everyone on the WC will take Arizona State in this spot. The problem is, they picked up a big win last week, and have this game against Illinois right before their conference opener against USC. Last week they looked unable to stop the run and Illinois has a potent running game. Some will say that Illinois played nobody so far, and I agree with that. But I also fell that they played just enough to start the season 2-0. Illinois has never been a team that kills lesser opponents. Last season they played much better against Missou, Ohio State, Penn State than against NIU or SIU. In games 2-7, road faves or dogs of less than 7 points are 1-21 ATS after OT win if they were favored by more than 3 points in that OT win.
Notre Dame -4.5
Gotta feel sorry for ND. Statistically they should be 2-0 SU and ATS winning and covering by large margins. Unfortunatelly for them and their backers they are 0-2 SU and ATS, thanks to an enormous number of turnovers. But turnovers are a specific stat that tends to even out. Its almost like bad beats and lucky winners in gambling. This is not the first time a 0-2 team loses first two game as favorite. The last 34 times it happened they covered the game #3 spread 24 times. It is not the first time that they face a team without a loss in week 3. It happened 5 times and the they covered the spread all 5 times by a rather huge margin. Last season ND lost to MCHST in overtime. And last season MCHST was one of the luckiest teams ever. Time for revenge.
San Jose State +7
Its just natural for a recreational bettor to take a road fave that used to dominate the opponent if both teams are off of similar results the previous week. The logic is, team A was better last year than team B and they will bounce back. In real world the things do not work like that. Road faves of 11 or less, after a road dog loss are 2-23 ATS against teams that lost as road dogs the previous week, if they won at least last 2 meetings by a margin of 43 points or more. Nevada lost too much talent from last season and San Jose State gained a lot of valuable experience from last season when they used tons of young players. This is SJSU first home game of the season and probably the first situation that favors them. In first two weeks they played on the road against big PAC 10 schools with a lot to prove. Now they are at home against a team that is in rebuilding year. Payback is a bitch.
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