Week 4 Line Move Review

JBone-

It's called reverse line movement and is a very useful tool! I've been using it as my main strategy for over a year now and have done very well. (Outside of the first 2 weeks this NCAAF season.) I start to cap games once I see which games have reverse line movement.

What it does, it tells you where the sharp, respected or big money bets are going. The UCLA, C. Mich, Temple and Bowling Green games this past week were prime examples. Sharps aren't right all the time, but they are right more times than not.

It's easiest to sift through when sharps are on the dog. It will look just like the C. Mich and UCLA games. Huge betting % on the favorite with the line moving the other way. Tougher to find who the sharps are on when they take a favorite. Large bet % on the fav, but the line will move with the favorite. Tough to tell if it's sharp or public money making the line move. Stick with it for a while and you will get a feel for it. BTW, I CRUSHED CBB doing this last season!

Another tip....... I use vegasinsider.com, and use the number posted from sportsbook.com as the opening number to work off of. That's what I consider the "true" opening number. Handful of lines move 3-5 points within the first hour or so of release. Can get confusing trying to figure out where the line really settled at for an opener, so I simply use the first number posted by sportsbook.com. GL

Couple of other thoughts after I posted.

Use multiple sites for betting %. I use VI, pregame.com and thespread.com. You will see that they vary, and you will feel more comfortable when all 3 are telling you the same thing.

Also, I mentioned before you will get a feel, but don't jump the gun on half a point or a point line movement. In NCAAF anyway. Once I see reverse line movement of 1.5 points or more is when I start to get serious about it. The number of points means different things in different sports and level. For example.... 1 point in NCAAF not that big of a deal. 1 point in NFL....IS a big deal. 2 points in NCAAB not huge, 2 points in NBA is huge. You will get a handle on it the more you do it.

JBone,

Couple of thoughts on your post.....

First off, I do believe Vegas sets "trap lines" (though not as often as some believe) however, I do not believe they set "trap movement." Think of the lines and movement as a "market." The total number of bets and ultimately money wagered on certain teams create a "Market" for what the line should be.

As for the Arizona game, that line movement was indicative of the betting market. On all 3 of the sites I check, Arizona was receiving significantly more action. Therefore, the line came down. That wouldn't qualify for us using reverse line movement.

I don't believe books try to avoid sharp action. They have no choice. Their line is their line. If they get pounded by sharps than so be it. They can't say no if a respected capper plops a huge bet on them. Remember ultimatly what we are doing with reverse line movement........ and that is finding out what side the sharps are on, so we can bet with them.

Two other things to look at and keep track of. Line movement is important, but the numbers tell us more. If a line moves through a key number (3,4,7,10,14 etc.) it is a significant sign of what we are looking for. Is it important if a line moves from say 8 to 9.5? Yes, but I give more value to a line moving from 6.5 to 7.5. Of course, when heavy bet % is on the other side.

Last thing, is we can still find value if the line doesn't move at all. Say team A is -7 over team B. Team A recieves 90% of the action, yet the line doesn't move. To me, that is a sign that sharp money is offsetting public money. If I remember correctly, the Utah vs. Utah St game was very similar to this. Line may have moved a half point, but the big thing was lopsidded action on Utah, with the line staying firm. Now that I think of it, line may have had reverse movement to 6.5 right before kick. But you see what I'm getting at.

I know I've said it before, but you will get a better feel for it the more you do it. Don't be afraid either to just track it for a while if your not comfortable laying money on these games. When I first came upon this, I was hesitant to bet the games as I often was shaking my head at who I was supposed to take. But after tracking for a month or so, I started playing those teams and have been doing well ever since.

Thanks for the suggestion on ML. Not a bad idea at all.

GL!

I always think of one more thing after I post.......

Here in Vegas, betting limits are low until Thursday. Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon can provide info if we see a big shift in line movement. If we come across a 2 point movement in a matter of hours on Thursday......... Good chance respected money just went big on a particular side.