Week 4 observations, week 5 ponderings

YYD 9-12 ATS, -11.7 UNITS

BIG TEN

QB Luke Altmyer went 21 of 27 for 215 yards and four TDs to rally Illinois to a 31-24 overtime win at Nebraska Friday night.  Through four games Altmyer has thrown for 862 yards, ten TDs and has yet to be intercepted.  'Huskers QB Dylan Raiola was solid, completing 24 of 35 for 297 yards, but he threw a pick in the end zone on one drive, and missed a wide open receiver for an easy TD on another, and was sacked six times for 54 yards in losses.  The Illini got their ground game going in the second half, finishing with 166 yards and 4.3 yards per carry.

Illinois goes on the road again this week, to Penn St.  The Nittany Lions cruised to a blowout win over hapless Kent St. 56-0.

Nebraska should rebound when they travel to West Lafayette IN. to face a Purdue team that fell to Oregon St. 38-21, in Corvallis OR.  The Boilermakers surrendered 341 yards on the ground and four rushing TDs to the Beavs, a week after allowing 362 yards rushing and six TDs to Notre Dame. 

Undefeated Indiana is one of the most improved teams in the country.  QB Kurtis Rourke was 16 of 20 for 268 yards and a TD as the Hoosiers rolled past Charlotte, 52-14.  That's four blowouts in four games for Indy.  For the season Rourke has thrown for 1013 yards and eight TDs without a pick.  Indiana hosts Maryland next, looking to end a three game skid vs the Terrapins.

Ohio St. cruised to their third straight non conference blowout, 49-14 over Marshall. The Buckeyes open Big Ten play at Michigan St.  a 23-19 loser at Boston College in the Eagles Red Bandana game.  Ryan Day has won all five meetings over Sparty by scores of 34-10, 52-12, 56-7, 49-20 and 38-3.

Washington opened conference play with a dominant win over Northwestern, 24-5.  The Wildcats were without top RB Cam Porter, and were held to just 59 yards rushing and 112 total as they head into their bye week.

The Huskies go cross country next Friday to face Rutgers, which held on to beat Virginia Tech, 26-23, after squandering a 16 point lead.  The Scarlet Knights missed two field goals, fumbled at the Hokies five yard line and failed to score on a fourth and goal from the one, in what should've been a much easier win.

Michigan rushed for 290 yards on 46 carries to knock off USC, 27-24, despite blowing a 14-3 halftime lead and being dominated in the second half, as Miller Moss and the Trojans rallied to take a 24-20 lead. RB Kalel Mullings carried eight times for 84 yards on the Wolverines' winning TD drive.  But they absolutely need better QB play going forward!

USC hosts Wisconsin next.  The Badgers, off their bye week, may be without QB Tyler Van Dyke, who was carried off the field two weeks ago against Alabama.

Iowa rushed for 272 yards at six yards a crack, and rallied from a 14-7 halftime deficit with 24 unanswered second half points to knock off Minnesota, 31-14.  The Golden Gophers rushed for only 79 yards of their own, and now head to Ann Arbor.  Iowa has a bye.

Oregon is off their bye following the drubbing of Oregon St. and travel to L.A. to face mediocre UCLA.  The Bruins hung with LSU for a half before allowing 17 unanswered in a 34-17 loss.

Early Big Ten leans:

Washington +2'

Nebraska -10

Ohio St. -25

Illinois +17'

Also, I apologize for the duplicate posts.  Not sure how that happened, other than the fact I'm technologically challenged. 

BIG 12

Garrett Greene threw two TD passes in the final 3:27, including a 15 yard strike to Rodney Gallagher with 26 seconds left, to rally West Virginia from a 28-17 deficit, and a 32-28 win over Kansas.  it was the Jayhawks' third straight loss, despite 247 rushing yards (5.3 YPC) and 36:47 in possession time. They've been outscored 32-10 in the 4th quarter in their last three games.  WVU has a bye this week.

Kansas "hosts" TCU at Arrowhead Stadium in KC, with the Horned Frogs coming off a 66-42 loss at SMU.  The Frogs outgained the Mustangs, 480 yards to 375, but committed four turnovers and allowed SMU to rush for 238 yards (5.7 YPR), this after giving up 289 yards on the ground to UCF last week.

Iowa St. cruised to a 31-0 halftime lead and went on to crush Arkansas St. 52-7.  

Next up for the Cyclones is a road trip to offensively challenged Houston, off a 34-0 shutout loss in Cincinnati.  Bearcats QB Brendan Sorsby passed for two TDs and ran for one, and has now thrown 118 passes without an int.  The Cougars committed three turnovers in the loss, and have scored a total of 19 points vs the three teams they've played with a pulse.

Next up for Cincy is Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders handed Arizona St. their first loss, 30-22, as Behren Morton passed for two TDs and 201 yards, while Tahj Brooks gained 117 yards rushing on 27 attempts.  The Sun Devils had allowed just 65.3 rushing yards per game.  They fell behind early, 14-0, and then 24-10, but their rally fell short.

Utah ran for 253 yards, 182 of those by Micah Bernard, and frosh QB Isaac Wilson passed for 207 yards, subbing for injured Cam Rising, as the Utes held off Oklahoma St. 22-19.  Cowboys QB Alan Bowman was benched after a miserable first half, but returned to lead a 4th quarter rally that fell short.  RB Ollie Gordon was held to just 42 yards, despite Utah missing two starters on D.  Utah hosts Arizona next.

In perhaps the phoniest final of the week, BYU scored three TDs off three Kansas St. turnovers on three straight possessions, and Parker Kingston returned a punt 90 yards for a TD in a 38-9 rout, despite the Wildcats rushing for 230 yards (5.2 YPR).  K St. will host Oklahoma St. next.

Shedeur Sanders went 25 of 41 for 341 yards and two TDs, including a 43 yard Hail Mary to Lajohntay Wester to send the game into overtime, where Colorado prevailed, 38-31, over Baylor.  Travis Hunter forced a goal line fumble in OT to preserve the win.  The Buffs had 119 more yards and 36 minutes of possession time, but poor special teams coverage kept Baylor in the game.  The Bears had a 100 yard Kickoff return for a score and a 54 yard punt return set up a field goal.  Colorado heads to UCF and Baylor hosts BYU next.

Early Big 12 leans:

KANSAS ST. -5

Iowa St. -13

UTAH -12 (But only if Rising returns)

Nice Big10 week 4 review. 

I find duplicate posts are the result of bad internet connection. At least when my connection is bad they pop up.

Like your Big10 pics (not so crazy about Washington) and Good Luck! 

@UNIMAN

 At this point they're just LEANS not picks.  BOL to you too my friend!  Cheers 

Good stuff as usual. Think I wrote you last week. Even in a lopsided win against Rice, I came away thinking Houston was one of the worst teams I've watched. Their offensive line play is atrocious and they will continue to be exposed.

@CKP22

 Yeah, they're horrible.  Cyclones should be able to name the score in that one. 

Nice writeups, thanks!

Solid. 

@DrStrangelove

@DakotaOutlaw

More coming.  

SEC

Graham Mertz completed 19 of 21 passes for 201 yards and three TDs leading Florida past Mississippi St. 45-28.  The Gators rolled up 503 yards of offense, including 226 on the ground, while the Bulldogs had 480 yards, 240 on the ground.  Billy Napier's job security is as shaky as ever, as the Gators enter their bye week.

Things don't get any easier for Mississippi St this week.  Texas awaits, and the Longhorns are taking no prisoners.  With the 51-3 bludgeoning of UL Monroe they've outscored their first four opponents by a combined 190-22.  

Ole Miss meanwhile has outscored their first four opponents by a whopping 220-22, including Saturday's 52-13 mauling of Georgia Southern.  The Rebels now open SEC play by hosting Kentucky, which throttled Ohio, 41-6, a week after scaring the hell out of Georgia.  It will be the Rebels' first real test of the season.  The Wildcat D is legit.  Just ask UGA.

Texas A&M was in a classic sandwich situation, off a rout of Florida with Arkansas on deck, and Bowling Green proved to be a handful!  But backup QB Marcel Reed threw for 173 yards and two TDs, and ran for 91 to lead the Aggies to the 26-20 win.  

Arkansas was outgained by 97 yards, but was able to avenge last year's beatdown by Auburn, taking advantage of five Tiger turnovers in a 24-14 victory.  TJ Metcalf was the star of the game with two interceptions and a TD saving forced fumble.  It was an uneven performance by Hogs QB Taylen Green, who completed just 12 of 27 passes for 151 yards, a TD and two picks, but he came up big in several clutch situations and ran for 80 yards, including a 22 yard scramble on a 3rd and 19 play.  Auburn has a major problem at QB.  Payton Thorne and Hank Brown  combined for a whopping EIGHT INTERCEPTIONS against the only two quality opponents they've faced!

While all the attention this week will be on the titanic clash between Georgia and Alabama, as it should be, don't sleep on Tennessee. The Vols rolled into Norman OK and dominated Oklahoma with a ferocious defense that held the Sooners to 222 yards, including 63 yards rushing on 33 carries (not counting three QB sacks for 27 yards in losses) and forced three turnovers. QB Nico Iamaleava passed for 194 yards to lead Tennessee to a 22-3 lead going into the 4th quarter.  The Volunteers now enter their bye week, while Oklahoma travels to Auburn, and will undergo a change at QB.  Jackson Arnold was benched in the first half against the Vols and Michael Hawkins Jr. took over and led the Sooners to a pair of 4th quarter TDs.

Missouri had their hands full with Vanderbilt, eventually pulling out a 30-27 double OT win in a game of missed field goals by both teams.  Brady Cook passed for 226 yards and two TDs, and Nate Noel rushed for 199 yards to lead the Tigers, while the Commodores were led by dual threat QB Diego Pavia, who passed for 178 yards and two TDs, and added 84 yards rushing.  Both teams enter their bye week.

I am glad we don’t have any conflicts this week.  Army kicked it last week.  If we do conflict obviously you saw I have some holes and get exposed on some games. I pick a lot and I hit the 60% mark.  That’s the goal for me at least 55%.  I’m not asking for more but it can happen.  

The way you handled our conflict last week was great conversation.  I am appreciative of you and A fan. 

Nothing but luck and respect to you and yours this week 

@spottie2935

 Backatcha Spottie!  We all have the same goal, and that's to beat the books! Sometimes it's good to have a different set of eyes on a particular game.  Let's cash some tickets this week!

  Cheers! 

Early SEC leans:

Oklahoma -2

Gotta dig a little deeper on S. Alabama v. LSU.

ACC

QB Ashton Daniels led a game winning 11 play 69 yard drive, ending with Emmet Kenney's 39 yard field goal with no time remaining, as Stanford scored a big upset over Syracuse, 26-24.  Orange QB Kyle McCord passed for 339 yards and two scores, but also threw two costly interceptions, one of which was returned 71 yards for a TD by Mitch Leigher for a 20-10 lead.  The Cardinal outrushed Syracuse 173 yards (5.4 YPR) to 26 (1.5).

Stanford returns to the east coast to take on a Clemson team that blew past NC State, 59-35.  Cade Klubnik went 16 of 24 for 209 yards and three TDs and also scored on a 55 yard run. The Tigers rushed for 269 yards (8.2 YPR) and jumped out to a 28-0 lead after the 1st quarter, led 45-7 at the half and 59-14 going into the 4th quarter.  The Wolfpack scored three late TDs when Clemson cleared their bench.

Louisville was outgained 410 yards to 326, but Ramon Puryear recovered a fumble in the end zone after a deflected lateral, QB Tyler Shough (13 of 19 for 269) threw a 57 yard TD pass to Ja'Corey Brooks and Tayon Holloway returned a blocked field goal 45 yards for another score as the Cardinals topped Georgia Tech, 31-19.

Louisville takes on Notre Dame next.  The Irish had a sluggish start, but Riley Leonard passed for 154 yards and ran for another 143, in a 28-3 win over Miami OH.  The Irish have had multiple injuries on the offensive line.

Miami FL continues to be the class of the ACC. Trailing 15-14 late in the first half, the Hurricanes exploded for 36 unanswered and blew past USF, 50-15.  Cam Ward went 24 of 34 for 404 yards and three TDs in the rout.  I thought the Bulls would hang here.  I was wrong.  The 'Canes now host Virginia Tech, who lost at home to Rutgers (see Big Ten notes).

After suffering an embarrassing loss at home to James Madison, in which the Dukes scored in all three phases, North Carolina faces arch rival Duke.  The Blue Devils had no trouble with MTSU, rolling to a 35-10 halftime lead on the way to a 45-17 rout.

Florida St. was outgained 410 yards to 284, but held on to beat California, 14-9.  The Seminoles have yet to surpass 300 yards in any game this season, but sacked Cal QB Fernando Mendoza seven times and held the Golden Bears to three Ryan Coe field goals.  Coe missed two others from 36 and 38 yards out.

FSU takes on SMU next.  The Mustangs rolled TCU, 66-42, last week (see Big 12 notes).

Early ACC lean:

SMU -5'

Looking at Louisiana v. Wake Forest.  

Great job recapping the past week's action. I've already locked in one play, Baylor -3. I had BYU on the back end of a 4 team parlay so I watched the whole game and happily won but you are correct, that 38-9 win over KST was deceiving. The last minute of the half with the TO's that led directly to 2 TDs and early in the 2nd half that great punt return when it looked like it might be a disaster was KST's undoing. KST lost that game more than BYU won it. BYU gave up a alot of yards rushing and their offense is really only average. Baylor will run the ball and their defense will get the better of the BYU offense. Locked that -3 up in a home game for the Bears. GL this week!

Wazzu ml

@mrusso

 BOL!  Hope it hits 

@Hulk_Hogan

Sun Belt

Just a few games of note:

South Alabama ran for 320 yards on 43 carries and rolled over Appalachian St, 48-14.  Gio Lopez passed for 154 yards and two TDs, and he and Fluff Bothwell each had over 100 yards on the ground, as the Jaguars, eight point underdogs, scored early and often.

To say that James Madison embarrassed North Carolina would be a classic understatement. QB Alonza Barnett III threw for 388 yards and five TDs, and added 99 yards rushing and a pair of scores in a 70-50 beatdown.  The Jaguars, 11 point dogs, scored in all three phases and took advantage of five Tar Heels turnovers, and led 53-21 at halftime.

Louisiana had 56 more yards than Tulane, but gave up a pick six late in the first half, and allowed a 94 yard Kickoff return to start the second half in a 41-33 loss.  

Early leans:

Louisiana +3'

South Alabama  +22

@Boisestateand8

C-USA

Three games of note:

QB Kaden Salter passed for 233 yards and threw three of his four TD passes to Reese Smith to rally Liberty from a 17-0 deficit in a 35-24 come from behind win over East Carolina.  Quinton Cooley added 105 yards on the ground with a TD.  It was the Flames best effort of the season, just in time for what COULD be a tricky little encounter at App St.  All depends on which Mountaineers team shows up.

Hunter Watson was only 9 of 21 for 64 yards and two picks, but he more than made up for it with his legs, rushing for 116 yards and two scores as Sam Houston pounded New Mexico St. 31-11.  The Bearkats rushed for 280 yards total at 5.1 yards a crack and held the ball for over 38 minutes.  The Aggies were held to a measley 150 yards of offense and gained a mere 2.6 yards per play.  Next up for Sam is a neutral site encounter with Texas St. who is off a bye, while the Aggies host rival New Mexico.

Western Kentucky rallied from 21-10 down after a weather delay to knock off Toledo, 26-21, a week after the Rockets throttled Mississippi St.  Backup QB Caden Veltkamp, in for injured TJ Finley, was 20 of 30 for 242 yards and a score, and also ran for two 4th quarter TDs, but it was Devonte' Mathews two interceptions in the last minute of play, one in the end zone, and one at the four yard line, that preserved the win for the Hilltoppers.

Early leans:

Wku +13 -  BC letdown after red bandana win?

Sam Houston +8' -  but huge rest advantage for the Bobcats.

NEW MEXICO ST. +9 ???????  Hmmm.

American Athletic 

Not since 2016 have Navy and Army both started out 3-0, but here they are leading the conference, both 2-0 in AAC play and 3-0 overall. 

The Midshipmen got a huge win over conference favorite Memphis, 56-44, as QB Blake Horvath rushed for a whopping 211 yards on just 12 carries, with four TDs!  And get this; he completed 9 of 12 passes for another 192 yards and two more scores!!!  The Tiger defense had no answers, but Seth Henigan nearly brought them all the way back from a 49-30 deficit, passing for 368 yards, but Rayuan Lane's 86 yard pick six with 29 seconds left saved the day for Navy. Memphis has two 100 yard rushers and two 100 yard receivers despite the loss.

As for Army, QB Bryson Daily accounted for 207 of the team's 272 first half yards, as the Black Knights led 28-0 and went on to rout Rice, 37-14.  Daily ran for 145 yards and three scores, and completed 6 of 9 for 107 yards and two more scores!!  Army outrushed the Owls 288 yards to 41 and had over 39 minutes of possession time.

Temple rallied from an early 14-0 deficit and outscored Utah St. 45-29.  The two teams combined for 922 yards and 390 yards rushing, with both teams averaging about five yards a carry in a statistically even game.

North Texas dominated hapless Wyoming, 44-17, outgaining the Cowboys 534 yards to 244.  The Mean Green broke open a 24-17 game with 20 unanswered, shutting out Wyoming in the second half.  

Tulsa won in overtime, 23-20, over Louisiana Tech, booting a 34 yard field goal after a fumble recovery and 64 yard return on Tech's first possession in OT.

Early leans:

Army -12'

Navy -3'

MEMPHIS -25'

MAC

Buffalo rallied from 14-3 down to upset Northern Illinois, 23-20 in overtime.  The Bulls were outgained 359 yards to 184, but took advantage of two turnovers and two missed field goals, the second which was blocked in OT.  The Huskies played the same tenacious defense they showed when they stunned Notre Dame two weeks ago, but offensively they couldn't get out of their own way.

PAC 2/MWC

Washington St. clearly had an Apple Cup hangover after upsetting Washington last week, and with Boise St. on deck, but John Mateer passed for 390 yards and four TDs and ran for 111 yards and another score as the Cougars rallied from 38-24 down in the 4th quarter to eventually beat San Jose St. 54-52 in double overtime.  Wazzu put up 627 yards of offense, including 237 on the ground, but their defense gave up nearly 500 yards.

Avery Morrow ran for 156 yards and two TDs, and Colorado St. built a 24-3 lead midway through the 3rd quarter, holding on for a 27-17 win over UTEP. The Rams finished with 224 yards rushing to only 48 for the Miners. 

Mikey Keene passed for 226 yards and a score and Fresno St. topped mistake prone New Mexico, 38-21.  The Lobos outgained the Bulldogs 485 yards to 345, but committed three turnovers and were stopped on a 4th and 1 at their own 12 yard line leading to three TDs.  The Lobos also committed a whopping 17 penalties.

Early lean:

Washington St. +7'