week 6

@D-Town

@spottie2935

 Berst of Luck

I am digging into all these games.  my eyes on :

CLEMSON;   pretty soft schedule!  lines increasing.  FSU has lost 3 games with big lines they might surprise here.  Dont fall in love against them yet!

MISS : Bad schedule and only wins are blowout vs bad teams.  I like the +points so the ML is in play

IOWA ST: BAYLOR is not bad and had 2 weeks to detox after the CU miracle loss.  From out of nowhere they rise.  Iowa St. is #16?  They have 4 games now and its possible they get upset 1 or more times coming up.  Baylor was favored again a Ranked BYU team.  The lines maker knows something about this team. Last week was a bad situation.  The past is behind them.

Georgia:  +1150 lines dont make great bets, but After a loss is an opportunity to capitalize on weakness.  Surely one wouldn't bet against a team that won 20 straight (or something incredible like it) but how about a team that lost an early season game?  Adversity showing and where is the motivation?   Following game after such a dramatic loss.   First sight of weakness is time to devour.  Head check game.

Indiana:   The teams they have faced at home and UCLA on the road laying -3 now -14 to a team that plays fundamental smart football.  Northwestern and Duke are equals and these teams at home are landmines.  -14 points is a complete joke in my opinion.  Indiana has a poor history winning road games.  Does that show up here? Money line in play.

Miami: I am not a big fan of Cal, but a dent was shown last week vs. Miami.  On the road on the other coast laying -12?  Another team with an early soft schedule destroying opponents.  These situations are different now as the conferences have changed.  This seems like a preseason game.   Next week a big game vs. =Louisville !

Tennessee : no losses yet, and covered all games.  Florida and a big game with Alabama after that.  I am not saying, but I am just saying 

@dcgmt

Georgia is not hungover they are terrible laying big points since 2014

t:team=GEO and HF and -19>line and season>2014

7-24 ATS 

Good luck on the week 6 plays spottie   

Very kind to think of me Jim Good luck and best wishes on yours 

Didnt have a lot of time to post and show my work this week but by now I hope the picture is clear.  

I have cut back  the list. The lines are current so No one complains.

BEST BETS IN BOLD

Thursday :

SH St +10

Friday:

HOU +16.5

SYR+6.5

1pm Plays 

UNC +2.5

PURD +14 It appears to me that Wisc won't reach their team total. currently 29.5 was 30.5

4:30

AUB +24.5

S. CAR +9.5

APP ST +3

7P

OLD DOM +5.5

ARK +13.5

BAY +11

8P

HAW +2.5

KANSAS +2.5

10P

CAL +10.5

11P

TEX TCH +6.5

Did you mean UTEP +10 on Thursday?  With you on Auburn, Kansas and Cal, AND, I'm really liking Mizzou.  Did you drop them from your play list?

BOL this week!  Kick ass!   

Yes thank you UTEP! I’ll change it 

The Cardinal will win SU. 

I am trying to react to the openers search the data check the consensus and make a more concise list. 

I have dropped some of the bad teams that play on Saturday’s because as you see I have enough.  

Missouri got eliminated because they are ranked and the majority likes them.  

I think Michigan falls into the same situation.  What I like more about Mizzu is back to back favorite non ats covers and TAM can be had by them.  

Mizzou is kinda like Michigan against USC a few weeks ago 

A ranked team that is usually a favorite that is a current week dog and the next week back to being a favorite 

a dog ranked team with no dog look ahead type of game can be highly motivated.  As you can tell I like them. 

my concerns :  how good are they going forward if they are not favored here?  Over their last 15 games or so they have been the higher ranked team than TAM. 

Mizzu has recently had some big victories against teams with a long history of winning but mizzu is a new comer in this arena.  I suspect a win here and future problems ahead.  I’m just not confident in long term success on  teams with no history.  Just my thoughts.  Let’s see how they do and the future lines ahead.  

like them as a dog this week but a lot of people agree.  

I am trying to react to the openers search the data check the consensus and make a more concise list. 

I have dropped some of the bad teams that play on Saturday’s because as you see I have enough.  

Missouri got eliminated because they are ranked and the majority likes them.  

I think Michigan falls into the same situation.  What I like more about Mizzu is back to back favorite non ats covers and TAM can be had by them.  

Mizzou is kinda like Michigan against USC a few weeks ago 

A ranked team that is usually a favorite that is a current week dog and the next week back to being a favorite 

a dog ranked team with no dog look ahead type of game can be highly motivated.  As you can tell I like them. 

my concerns :  how good are they going forward if they are not favored here?  Over their last 15 games or so they have been the higher ranked team than TAM. 

Mizzu has recently had some big victories against teams with a long history of winning but mizzu is a new comer in this arena.  I suspect a win here and future problems ahead.  I’m just not confident in long term success on  teams with no history.  Just my thoughts.  Let’s see how they do and the future lines ahead.  

like them as a dog this week but a lot of people agree.  

BEST BETS IN BOLD

Thursday :

UTEP +10

Friday:

HOU +16.5

SYR+6.5

1pm Plays 

UNC +2.5

PURD +14 It appears to me that Wisc won't reach their team total. currently 29.5 was 30.5

4:30

AUB +24.5

S. CAR +9.5

APP ST +3

7P

OLD DOM +5.5

ARK +13.5

BAY +11

8P

HAW +2.5

KANSAS +2.5

10P

CAL +10.5

11P

TEX TCH +6.5

@Hulk_Hogan

 I thought of making a new thread as people might now be able to understand my original posts were not actual plays just some original thoughts.  I backed off VATech.  They do need a win though. 

@spottie2935

Copy. I see Stanford winning. I'm going to parlay it with Minnesota ML. Goodluck this weekend. 

@Hulk_Hogan

 Stay Hot !

solid info in here and definitely agree with you on a couple of these. i'm giving baylor another whack. had they not started the first few minutes of the byu game at 21-0, they would've pulled off a w. was also thinking about cal but still on the fence. good luck this week, buddy

@OlDirtyBaztid

 I appreciate you stopping my friend.  
best wishes on yours as always 

Other games I have small investments in this week.

Air Force is in so many data queries this week.  It’s the fact that they have been a non ranked favorite in multiple times this year.  The total is very low and I don’t think much of Navy’s Defense

Over 12.5 AF team total.  Navy D is not great and AF at home in this rivalry.  AF will score and have success.  Nobody can see what I envision. This is one of my bests and I am not listing it in bold because who want to bet this great opportunity? Do you want to bet Air Force? 

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Temple +17.5 another sneaky one in my opinion.  Comparing lines is important to me also following consensus is another tool.  Don’t misread that these are tool and I use a whole tool box when considering a play. Con keeps playing well and the lines make keeps adding points to these games because Temple is bad and UCon is good. Well I’ve been around a while and have been burnt.   
Conn’s 2 home Favorite games to :

Merrimack -14.5

Buff -5.5

now -17.5 

Temple looked horrid against Army because they couldn’t run. Well Con is no Army team. temple scored 45 against UTAH St. they can throw the ball against teams.  I’m just throwing out last weeks game that Army dominated them. 
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Good looking card. I agree with just about all of these. I hope that's a good thang. By the way, Baylor is back up to 12.5. I'm holding out for a 13.

There are a lot of posters here that turned me on to Louisville this week and now that the line is -6.5 on my site I have bought in and tailed.  

To all of you that took the time to post some thoughts, I appreciate it. 

My break down is SMU off 2 fantastic games with high outputs of points and margins.  Well this is an opportunity they don’t excel to that level this week.  Louisville is much stronger  and a complete team that has the opportunity to frustrate them.  SMU can make mistakes, see week 1 against Nevada.

Smu excellence has been against 2 past good teams now in disarray.  Louisville is not in disarray. Smu is now you see it now you won’t. 

Northwestern +14 so many under appreciate NW for their consistency. I know Indy is as sound as ever but NW can play and play hard.  Indy is and has been terrible away from home.  Now this Indy team is much much better but -14 against a team that plays sound D. I’m don’t think Indy gets their team total this week so the +14 is a values sport for the home dog to stay close and win money. 

@DrStrangelove

 Thanks for stopping in I appreciate you Dr. 

Rutgers is getting a nice batch of points. Nebraska toughness game so far is ILL and they lost as -9.5 favorites.  The fresh QB will be like others and struggle against sound teams.  This will be a challenge.