Florida State finally a decent type of line with a good D. I like the points and under
The focus is beating the line not whether I have bet a complete team. I think FSU gave DJ too many opportunities to make plays instead of focus on game management.
Doesn’t sound like DJ is a factor this week so keeping a sound strategy will make for a different type of game.
Nevada +7
I really like this one.
SJ St bye came at a bad time. That’s a factor. SJ st is also a favorite. Well they can score that’s no doubt but they also give away points and make mistakes. I just feel like Nevada will do a good job of competing this week and this is an opportunity to win this game.
SJ St played a home game to CAL Sacramento and that line was -2.5 to me this says a lot and is a clue.
Oops forgot one.
So. Miss +16.
ULL has APP St on deck and laying this many provides an opportunity.
earlier in the season ULL was a road favorites to Kennesaw St. -14.5 well I haven’t seen the new FBS team play but on paper that doesn’t look so good. The look ahead spot here for ULL and the increase line is a bad spot in my opinion. On paper this isn’t a good game but I smell a stinky fish.
Spottie
I may be against your Florida State pick...I doubt the change at QB will make much difference...So do you think Fla State will keep fighting hard if they were to get down, or will they quit in the 2nd half like they did against SMU? I think had Clemson played a better 2nd half against UGA, or even won that game, all bets would be off in this game...That game humbled Clemson, Dabo, the OC, everyone...Klubnick is not that great, but he was a 5 star recruit coming out of Austin Westlake, a Texas powerhouse...I thinkBrock Glenn was a 4 star recruit, but he is quite inexperienced. Do you think that Clemson D that played UGA close for a half, will pin their ears back, shut down the run, and dare FSU to pass...14 points is a lot...And I know its based on perception by the way FSU has played to date...Perhaps even an over reaction. I perceive that you still see Clemson with a solid win, of say 7-10, just no cover, right?
I still need to do more research on this match up this week. GL this week! 
In most cases, I’m not a guy to break down what has happened in the past and what I suppose will happen. Some info is a plus, but the current game is mostly assumptions. I am assuming a change happens to Clemson this week.
What I don’t like is FSU’s dominance last season and the current regression that is happening to them. I look at Clemson and see the stats and data and I look for an overinflated line. Maybe this or any line with FSU is just a pass this season.
what I see this week is a line flip and I think the books don’t really know what to do with them. FSU started as a public team now no one trusts them. A lot of guys see a big line and that gives them even more confidence that they can’t compete.
Well from my eyes I see an intercollegiate rival game that the line has flipped to them getting 2 scores at home. Clemson if they play like they have I’m done here. Clemson has gotten their team total over the last few games here. They just might again. This is possible the hardest D Clemson has faced so far. If A favorite can’t get over their team total it’s tough to cover.
still yet the problem for FSU is they still have to stay within 2 TDs with a very suspect and struggling offense.
I like and have played Clemson team total under 30.5 and under 47.5 and FSU +14.5 all small units because I like the game but other games have more data and other teams I like didn’t excel and get shunned by missing the opportunity to win a nation champ last season.
I backed off Mizzu this week as well. Excellent team getting points gets attention. I don’t like teams getting attention. I like team that the books add extra points to after great achieving games.
I post early teams like I did this week and start sorting from there.
I have my clues and “tells” that have been successful. One of them is finding a dog that is a brick wall compared to their last opponent. This spot is questionable but I need the lines help to cover.
The favorite is the better team and the dog hits at 52% most often. Then I use data and history to gain a better ROI and win%.
Clemson and FSU don’t matter to me. It’s about teams and ratings and finding strong data.
Here is the thing to think about. How many strong QB’s are there in the league? Some of these teams have no business laying points or so many points if things go wrong they fail. It’s an opportunity and that’s what I trust. Bad Lines bad favorites against good dogs or good lines being stacked and opportunities.
Example if outside thinking is Houston this week. Terrible looking team after 0 points in 2 games but this week getting 3 scores against a TCU with a bad D. TCU looked great last week but Kansas has struggled too. Houston should score this week it’s an opportunity to do so and I know the books have to gain an edge and add extra points to take everyone’s money.
Roulette wheels are fixed odds based upon guaranteed ROI for the house.
if we could handicap roulette like sports there would be a middle man adding more black numbers after Multiple reds in a row.
bad teams get points and more points added in based upon their opponent success.
find good dogs that aren’t popular or bad favorites that appear good.
all the mistakes penalties turnovers special teams are all in the dark. Then it comes down to the lines.
rank > 4 and CA and season > 2015 and 11 > week > 5 and o:ats streak < 3 and ou streak < 3 and p:site = home and 28 > op:points > 6 and p:points < 45 and line < 3 and ats streak > -2 and o:rank = None
A favorite that is ranked in the top 25 but outside the top 4. Is playing and conference opponent away game. from season 2016 to current from weeks 6 and including to and before week 11. the dog has less than 3 covers in a row including ats losing streak ( I dont want the dog to be that good) the Favorites previous game was home ( they have a lot of success at home, and now away not so much) the dog scored under 28 point in their last game but more than 6, The favorite did not score as many as 45 last game. The favorite is not on a ats losing streak more than -1 so they are not cold. and the dog is not a rnked team.
The play against teams this week are :
Clemson
Michigan
USC.
Michigan and USC are both having issues and Clemson is playing home games vs. weak teams and teams that cant stop them. I suspect 2-1 ATS fading these 3 teams. road teams previously at home.
Clemson has done all this damage the last 3 weeks but got crushed to Georgia in week 1 so the ranking have them outside the top 5 in this case that makes them vulnerable against teams better than App St,,, NC St. ... and Stanford so far.
Lastly Clemson a few games ago against APP state in a Clemson home game line was -13.5. The lines maker has added some points here.
Agree with your analysis, besides Clemson. What has FSU done?! FSU is in a bad spot & looking for anything to salvage their season. I look for the Noles to throw everything they can at the Tigers & try to be competitive.
Cal played about as bad a game of football as you can without having your entire team left on the tarmac.
I'm not saying it will necessarily be easy for Clemson, but FSU didn't have to actually play well to beat Cal. They will have to pull something special out to make it competitive with the Clemson team we've been seeing. Even with back up QBs and a rivalry, Dabo will be dialed in trying to get the most ACC wins EVER (even with a mediocre defense).
Staying away. Leaning over 45.5!
GL Spottie 
Hi thanks for stopping in. here.
day != Saturday and HF and line >= -13 and season > 2015 and week < 11 and 12 > o:PRSW > 3 and on:site = away and rest!= 4
best wishes this week
I'm also looking at Baylor and Texas Tech. Baylor came out flat footed last week after that Colorado dumpster fire. But they played great in the 2nd half and pretty much shut down BYU. They had BYU on the ropes, but ran out of time. I hope that momentum carries over this week. I'm also considering the over for the TTU game. The Red Raiders offense is humming pretty good in the running game. I don't see either of those teams getting many stops. Waiting to see if a +7 pops up.
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