Posted:
#1
Went 4-1 for + $650 last week.
I focus strictly on line movement and public consensus, below are today's leans and write ups. I will confirm the play 30 minutes before game time as I follow and track the line movement.
9 AM, Georgia vs Missouri:
We all know the Gurley is suspended but what's interesting is the line movement. It opened at -3 and after news of the suspension, the line went to -2 and even -1.5 in some books, but it has now gone back up to -3. A LOT of Missouri money came in the past 2 days due to the suspension. Players get up for games like this to show they can fill the void. Public money is currently about 80% on Missouri ML and almost 60% on the spread. Fishy business, the line should have continued to drop with such heavy #'s on Mizzou.
Lean: Georgia -3
12:30 pm, Oregon vs UCLA:
Oregon shocked the world and lost last week at home. That means that everyone bets them this week, not thinking they can lose 2 games in a row. Line opened at -3.5 and is now at -2 in most books. Public is wagering UCLA at about 70% on the ML and 45% on the spread. This line has dropped too far down, it is begging for Oregon money.
Lean: UCLA +2
3 PM: Washington vs CAL
This one is interesting. Line opened at CAL -1 and has since gone up to -3.5/-4 in some books. This is the definition of fishy movement because the public has been all over Washington both early in the week and as of now. The public is betting Washington at a rate of about 8% on the ML (which has continued to increase and make their payouts look better) and about 55% on the spread. Fishy movement.
Lean: CAL -3.5
4 PM: Penn State vs Michigan
Another game with fishy movement despite heavy public numbers, similar to CAL. Line opened at PK and has since moved to Michigan -2/-2.5. Public is on Penn State at a rate of about 65% on the spread and 50% on the ML. Line has moved too much in Michigan's direction for this amount of public %.
Lean: Michigan -2
7:30 PM: USC vs Arizona
This is my favorite game of the day. #10 Arizona, the team that beat Oregon on the road is now home and an underdog to the unranked USC! Everyone is slamming Arizona. The line opened at -2.5 for USC and has stayed there as of right now. BUT the public continues to wager Arizona...over 65% on the ML and 70% on the spread. I can see this line jumping to -3, wanting more Arizona action...
Lean: USC -2.5
THOSE ARE MY ONLY GAMES FOR THE DAY. I HAVE NOT PLACED ANY WAGERS YET, THESE ARE MY LEANS AND MY TRAIN OF THOUGHT. I WILL POST AN OFFICIAL PLAY IN THIS THREAD, IF I TAKE ANYTHING.
GL 
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