Week 8 Ideas and Plays

3 - 2 last week +0.5 U

- lost money on teasers an parlay

I should have pressed on the Ducks game 2-3 UNITS but knew I was taking them +11 on a 7pt teaser. Who knew Boise and Hawaii would play a defensive battle? That was my blemish this week > TEASERS and likely next week, I will be + $$ again which is typical of a topsy turvy even season

Kudos to a couple of cappers who I admire for their consistency....always check results after and a couple are having legendary -typical seasons hitting 2 of 3  or 2 for 2. I only hope to be as good one day 

---------------------- SEASON TOTALS---------------------------

OVERALL after Week 7 Sides/Totals:  = 14 - 15  (EVEN ) 

Exotic Betting:

Parlay 0 - 2 (- $360)

Teaser =  -$160 on season

In-game = +$220 

Profit Total = -300

***Just waiting for one line to open to press on a $500-$800 and might go up to $1000 parlay (mulling) before I make any Sides or Totals plays.....

TEXAS ML with ALABAMA ML << If Vols are holding back, well, we will see if they are and I do not like how Heupel and co are managing their offense. Their defense is going to have their hands full with Milroe and Nico + friends likewise on their side of the ball. Ultimately, I do not see Alabama losing this game but going to do some research first

I am going to take my time before I press on this and in the meantime, mull some other Sides/Totals

What I lean to:

- Louisville +4.5 >> alarm bells on Miami every year they have a perfect record around this time and Cards will be motivated!

- Nebraska +4.5 >> Rhule with a couple weeks to prepare and think this game boosts their resume if they win given the fact Hoosiers are undefeated

- Arkansas +4.5 >> this will be a battle especially if Razorbacks fight on defense like they did vs Vols

- Georgia/Texas Under 53.5 >> do the Horns want to allow Georgia to wake up like they did vs BAMA or keep the screws on tight the WHOLE GAME...... I think it is the latter 

Not every game is open for me on BET365 so there will be some more....

Play #1 - Arkansas +4 x 1U<< grabbed off my phone quickly 

-noticed that the last 4 years have been 3 pt games no matter where the game was played

Mulling Charlotte + 7 or OVER 56.5 looks quite juicy  ...... Charlotte hammered ECU and now Army is only -16.5 vs ECU??? << lean there as well

- Navy won last year 14-0 and were not throwing the ball like they are now

Play #2 - Army -16.5 x 1U ... not sure how the pass will work for ECU because their QB is not very accurate (8 TDs/12 INTs) and Army defense is legit, including a very strong secondary (33 vs pass/ #2 vs run)

TEASER KEYS considering.... spiced lines after 7 pts:

- NW +14 

- Duke +4/3.5

- UAB-USF UNDER 64.5

- Tennessee +9.5 (beginning to realize these teams will play this closely like 2 years ago most likely and Alabama cannot be trusted on the road.....also, take a look at Bama's defensive stats and you can see whey Georgia got back into their game)

- Charlotte-Navy OVER 49.5

- Houston - Kansas UNDER 53.5 ....both teams can play defense but their QBs have issues moving the ball

- Michigan + 6/+7 .... Altmeyer does not sling the ball very far but can throw with accuracy ....count on Wolverine defense to pressure him and keep Illini to few TDs and see a one score game final

-Ohio - Mia Ohio UNDER 51 ....I see both teams scoring around 17-24 pts max vs each other with 2 capable defenses...maybe 27-20 score 

- Texas Tech win > quietly winning most of their games at home or on the road and flying under the radar...

- TEXAS +3.5 <<< absolute GOLD!!! and I like them ML and most likely will play them in -game hard...

- Sparty +13 << they will fight Iowa

- WVU +10 ....is this team done? Well, I do know that K-State does not win on the road rarely vs a decent team and can they win 2 in a row on the road as a posted favorite?? I HIGHLY DOUBT IT

 Also..... Georgia - Texas going from 53.5 to 56? I think a tease up to 63 would be gold....no way Georgia airs it out on this defense for over 27 pts

Hate to say at is someone holding an Indiana win total over ticket and been on them a handful of times ATS so far, but I do agree and like this spot for Nebraska. 

+7 on DK currently.

How do you bet against Matt Rhule motivation and their QB is a firecracker + defense. I guarantee you, something will be said that the public thinks Nebraska does not deserve to hang with the Hoosiers based on betting flows haha.... 

My question is...... Is the Hoosier defense as good as others near the top of the conference? 

I am definitely looking at NEBRASKA + pts but waiting....just getting back from a roadtrip to Montreal.

GL this week Degen 

Why do you like NW for your teaser +14?   I think Wisconsin is going to steam roll them in Evanston...

You seem confident in my Longhorns to beat UGA and cover...I am not so sure...Look at the Texas performance the last 10 years ATS the week after OU...I don't know what it is...but, that should give you a good metric on how they will play...Game Day in Austin, hype after beating down a marginal OU team with an inexperienced QB.  The most talented team in the country that is loaded with NFL draftees is coming to Austin, and I think they are pissed off...If there is any let down after OU for Texas,  think UGA may come in and school us...Just playing devils advocate here...Would like to hear your thoughts...

@LonghornHoosier

Don’t you think this year and moving forward is somewhat of an outlier when comparing the last 10 years ATS the week after OU?

College football has changed drastically with NIL and transfer portal.

Schools like Texas benefit from this as they receive a royalty percentage for every oil and gas well producing on University lands in the state.

As for Georgia having the most talented team in the country, I completely disagree.

I think you will be in for a treat once the Longhorns put this team to sleep and people will realize what Beck truly is.

GL

Year after year, I have witnessed NW playing way over their heads at home and beating strong programs or keeping games within one score in losses. Teams rarely come in there and blow them away. When I see NW going into a home field and destroying what I thought was a decent Maryland team this year with plenty of offensive balance, I perk up. Take a look at the scores of NW games. They smother the run and force the QB to throw on 3rd down and bend but don't break. Wisky does not have the A- type QB!

Watched the whole Bama-Georgia game....

Watched the whole Texas -OU game....

Oklahoma defense is much better than Georgia's - nastier and smother the ball carrier but Texas speed and size + Ewers ball throw placement is topnotch. Texas defense would not allow much near the line for RBs and got after Hawkins constantly BEFORE he even set to throw it seemed and moving him out of the pocket to get a throw off.

Georgia looked SMALL and their defense looked clueless....and like Alabama, their defenses give up a lot of yards. You can't tell me Georgia will be more motivated for Texas than Alabama. They will be SCARED for Texas because they have not had too many 2 -3 loss sniffs in the past while with Kirby and that is possible this year.

I watch a lot of football Horn and don't rely on what other people say if you haven't noticed my picks....and they come out early so, I will continue to ride my perceptions and statistical data until I am losing money badly and that has not happened this decade. (I had Michigan #1 or #2 all year last year when everyone had them #4 or #5 until later in the season...just had to watch them play to confirm improvement of players, team speed and crispness/line play just like I have with Texas, Arkansas who is impressing me and Oregon after this weekend....not impressed as much with Georgia this year and some others)

Also....something is OFF with Beck .... he finally looked good in the second half but Bama had let their foot off the gas with such a big lead and in the first half controlled Beck into turnovers vs FRESHMAN cornerbacks!!!  

If Texas loses, then I will change my tune but until I see Georgia miraculously look like a seasoned team like in the their first game of the season, then I will praise them and hold them to the highest standard. 

Some facts to fade Georgia, unless you know something everyone doesn't.....

Bulldogs are just 1-4 all-time versus Texas. Losing their last matchup 28-21 back in 2019.

Georgia is also 0-5 ATS in their last five games.  <<< that is this year  ..... including barely beating Kentucky and scoring only 13 pts. How does Texas do vs Kentucky on a neutral field?

Offensive stats for Georgia:

Offense
                       Stats    Rank
Total Yards       452.0    28
Passing Yards   318.0     9
Rushing Yards   134.0    92
Points Scored     33.5    37
Turnovers            6       39

Defense (Georgia's stats are better than Alabama and they still could not beat Bama and got their ass kicked)

Defense
                        Stats      Rank
Total Yards        312.5       28
Passing Yards    192.3       39
Rushing Yards    120.2      43
Points Scored     17.2        20
Takeaway             3          98 << they are more worried about making tackles and Texas speed is as good and better in many positions but Texas is also bigger than Georgia 

Been cracking TOTALS data using various analytics metrics and have stumbled onto a trend based on numbers that is quite good....but it seems to vary WEEK to WEEK for some point zones.... 

I am only using yearly/weekly data from Week 7 onward and seasons 2022/23 , 2023/24 and this season for the reason that, TRANSFERS became normal and team unity and continuity is in more disarray now since it came in before the start of 2022/23

I will have some plays shortly.... using another metric to refine my final selections

Kudos to one particular poster for inspiring me to get off my ass and cracking TOTALS data....he knows who he is 

Before I get to TOTALS plays.....uncovered this one while comparing offense vs defense stats:

Play #3 Texas St -10 x 1.5U

-12th ranked offense that is 21st best at scoring facing an offense that won't keep up and can only throw a 110th ranked defense to stop McCloud in co? OLD D offense is ranked 108th statistically and is 104th in scoring

I see a strong edge here

Total Plays Week 8:  - going to dive right into the analytical angles I uncovered today and play on my best ones this week since I am basically EVEN on my betting on the season

2 Star:

Hou-Kansas Under 47.5 x 2U

FIU - UTEP Under 47 x 1.5U

1 Star:

Col St. - Air F.  Under 46 x 1U

B.C. - VTech  Under 48.5 x Half U

TCU - Utah  Under 49 x Half U

Irish - GTech Under 49 x Half U

W.Mich - Buff Under 47.5 x Half U

UCF - Iowa St Under 49.5 x Half U

TEASERs: 7 pt > KEY: Texas +2 with Kansas St +4 with Nebraska +13.5 with 

$30 each pay HALF U profit:

1. Alabama +4

2. New Mexico +5

3. UNDER 62 SHSU 

4. W. Kentucky +9

5. B.C. +14

6. Duke +4

7. NW +14

8. Under Louisville 68.5

9. Navy Over 48

10. Buffalo +8

Also:

x1U  pays 1.1 U > Georgia +12 with Col St. Even with Nebraska +13.5

x Half U pays 1U   > Texas +2 with Col St Even with Indiana +0.5 with Kansas St +4

x Half U pays 1 U > Georgia +12 with Col St Even with WVU +10 with Nebraska +13.5

Been really diving into the data and matchups this week....betting well over $1000 now /sticking my neck out, but its time!

Looks like, Oregon is going UNDER 61

......I decided to go with another TOTAL ZONE this week.....instead of Totals Over 60 pts which is 20-8 UNDER in the past 2 seasons in WEEK #8  (in Week #7 the past 2 seasons, it went 10-15)

Week #8 (2024) = 1 - 0 with Ducks going UNDER

The Total Trend I went with was UNDER on games with TOTALS 45.5 - 49.5 that I figured out to be:

- 13 - 3 UNDER in WEEK #7 in the last 2 seasons 

- 13 - 5 UNDER in WEEK #8 in the last 2 seasons

Week #8 (2024) = 0 - 2 UNDER........ hoping this trend improves now with 10 plays 

My TOP TEAMS after Week #7:

MOST LIKELY CONFERENCE WINNERS - TOP 4 Seeds - after Week #7

1. Texas (SEC)

2. Oregon (Big 10)

3. Miami  (ACC)

4. Iowa St. (Big 12)

------------------------------------------------

Actual Best Teams Ranking:

1. Texas  

2. Oregon  (no losses)

3. Penn St.  (no losses)

4. Ohio St.  (highest rated 1 loss)

-------------------------------------

5. Alabama

6. Georgia  

7. Iowa State (no losses)

8. LSU

9. Miami  (no losses)

10. Notre Dame 

 --------------------In the Hunt-------------

11 Texas AM

12 Clemson 

---------------------On the Edge-------------

13 Tennessee

14  BYU  (no losses)

15  Indiana  (no losses)

---------------------------------------------

16. Pittsburgh (no losses)

17. Ole Miss  

18. Kansas St. (If they hold, if not #27)

19. Boise  (if they win)

20. Nebraska

#21 Missouri #22 Arkansas #23 SMU  #24 Oklahoma  #25 Iowa 

#26 Michigan  #27 Louisville #28 Wash St. #29 Vanderbilt #30 Arizona St.

Next Tier (Rank #31 - 40)

USC, Utah, Texas Tech, Washington, Syracuse, Illinois, UNLV, VTECH, Memphis, Army

Top 50 Material

Wisconsin, Kentucky, South Carolina, James Madison, Navy, Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech, Cincy, Liberty, Colorado or Duke

Top 15 Consideration Teams:  - Future Tough games that pose a threat to Playoff Aspirations

Week #9

Penn St @ Wisconsin, LSU@ Texas AM, Notre Dame @ Navy, Washington @ Indiana, Boise @ UNLV, Syracuse @ Pittsburgh

Week#10

Oregon @ Michigan, Ohio St @ Penn St., Texas Tech @ Iowa St., Louisville @ Clemson, Pittsburgh @ SMU

Week#11

Georgia @ Ole Miss, Miami @ Georgia Tech, Alabama @ LSU, Clemson @ Virginia Tech, BYU @ Utah, Michigan @ Indiana, Army @ North Texas

Week#12

Oregon @ Wisconsin, Tennessee @ Georgia, Cincy @ Iowa St., Clemson @ Pittsburgh, Arizona St @ Kansas St.

Week#13

Indiana @ Ohio St., Iowa St @ Utah, BYU @ Arizona St., Texas AM @ Auburn, Cincy @ Kansas St., Army @ Notre Dame

Week#14

Texas @ Texas AM, Washington @ Oregon, Miami @ Syracuse, Kansas St @ Iowa St., S.Carolina @ Clemson, Notre Dame @ USC, Michigan @ Ohio St., 

Week #15

4x Power 4 Conference Championship games

Week #16

Navy @ Army << only significant if Army had  beaten Notre Dame in Week#13!

I feel like I am a YO-YO for Vegas and referee calls in games.....honestly

There are strange swings in games between excellent and talented teams as well as hot and cold play by either their Lines or their QBs....so offense can be hit or miss

NCAAF is getting harder to bet in my opinion ....maybe just limit your plays to 1-2 games a week?

Regular Plays this week > 1 - 2 (-1.5 U) 

Trending UNDERS > 3 - 5 (-3 U)

Teasers  > -$540

Needless to say, I am pissed off and feel stupid for betting this week, despite what I thought was logic + lots of study.... lost just over $1000 this week