Week 7 Recap: Went 8-4-1 and plus 8.3 stars. Was a solid week. Outside of the push none of the games were that close as only one was within 7 of the spread in the wins or losses (and that was a FH bet). The Rutgers under shows why taking low totals always has risk as 21 points were on unforced turnovers. Looking at the games I felt Aub was the bad bet of the group. Not sure what happened in the AF game as 38 pts at half was pretty unreal with those teams. The wins were all excellent bets and covered easily – Bama wasn’t looking good till they took over at end of first qtr – really dominated the half.
Total now is 33-16 and plus 42.1 stars.
On to this week – couple early picks below. Still have more to look at. Won’t be as many plays this week in looking at the slate of games. Might not be able to write up everything as I travel this week.
4* TCU +7.5
2* Minn +5.5
2* Cincy -1
1* TCU ML +235
I would lock TCU in now – not worth the risk of waiting as I think its way more likely to go down than up and considering 7.5 is a key number I would grab it. Not sure what the Iowa line will do – was 6.5 in FD for a bit but seeing 5 and 5.5. With All now out as well for them I would be surprised if it goes up but Minn hasn’t been great. I think it will stay about where it is. Cincy – not sure on that one either but am happy with 1 so I don’t risk it going to 3.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Week 7 Recap: Went 8-4-1 and plus 8.3 stars. Was a solid week. Outside of the push none of the games were that close as only one was within 7 of the spread in the wins or losses (and that was a FH bet). The Rutgers under shows why taking low totals always has risk as 21 points were on unforced turnovers. Looking at the games I felt Aub was the bad bet of the group. Not sure what happened in the AF game as 38 pts at half was pretty unreal with those teams. The wins were all excellent bets and covered easily – Bama wasn’t looking good till they took over at end of first qtr – really dominated the half.
Total now is 33-16 and plus 42.1 stars.
On to this week – couple early picks below. Still have more to look at. Won’t be as many plays this week in looking at the slate of games. Might not be able to write up everything as I travel this week.
4* TCU +7.5
2* Minn +5.5
2* Cincy -1
1* TCU ML +235
I would lock TCU in now – not worth the risk of waiting as I think its way more likely to go down than up and considering 7.5 is a key number I would grab it. Not sure what the Iowa line will do – was 6.5 in FD for a bit but seeing 5 and 5.5. With All now out as well for them I would be surprised if it goes up but Minn hasn’t been great. I think it will stay about where it is. Cincy – not sure on that one either but am happy with 1 so I don’t risk it going to 3.
Hoover looked excellent last week for TCU and showed he can really throw the ball even better than I expected. It will be his first road start so that introduces some risk. Their def has only given up 301 ypg in their 4 conf games. I like that their def has been playing well since the opener. They returned 7 off the def from last year and are very athletic. Kansas St is off a nice win where TT was down to their third string QB who is a true freshman for half the game. They also played Johnson their true freshman QB along with Howard. Not sure if they will move to Johnson moving forward or continue to rotate. Johnson is fast and can run. TT did have 480 yds off as that is the second straight game K St has been outgained.
Kansas St is plus 26 and TCU plus 132 in ypg diff against FBS teams. Kansas St isn’t as strong this year as Howard has struggled at times and I think losing Green for the year has hurt the defense. Kansas St also has Will Lee out – not sure if he will play this week but he is a starting corner. K St is last in pass def ypg given up in the conference and now plays a team that can pass well (TCU number 3 in conf at 302 ypg against FBS – 447 yds last week). The pass def is the weakness of K St – it is why I played Missouri against them a few weeks back. K St does have a good off line and runs the ball pretty well. Johnson is fast but this week TCU is an athletic defense so it will help them in defending against the zone read run game. K St is ninth in total offense ypg and eleventh in pass off ypg in the conference.
TCU has yet to have their bye which isn’t ideal as K st had one a few weeks ago. This is the last game before their bye and that should energize them. TCU has the top rated def in PFF in the big 12 and is number 1 in coverage rating with their excellent secondary so they should be able to dial in on the run. TCU could easily be 6-1 and lets face it – they would destroy Colorado if they played them now. I think they will finish the season strong and I like their defense which is big for playing on the road. I love games where I get at least 7 points and I think the team can win. I expect this to be a close game and I think TCU gets the win here and if they don’t we are plus a TD.
Prediction: TCU by 4
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4* TCU +7.5
Hoover looked excellent last week for TCU and showed he can really throw the ball even better than I expected. It will be his first road start so that introduces some risk. Their def has only given up 301 ypg in their 4 conf games. I like that their def has been playing well since the opener. They returned 7 off the def from last year and are very athletic. Kansas St is off a nice win where TT was down to their third string QB who is a true freshman for half the game. They also played Johnson their true freshman QB along with Howard. Not sure if they will move to Johnson moving forward or continue to rotate. Johnson is fast and can run. TT did have 480 yds off as that is the second straight game K St has been outgained.
Kansas St is plus 26 and TCU plus 132 in ypg diff against FBS teams. Kansas St isn’t as strong this year as Howard has struggled at times and I think losing Green for the year has hurt the defense. Kansas St also has Will Lee out – not sure if he will play this week but he is a starting corner. K St is last in pass def ypg given up in the conference and now plays a team that can pass well (TCU number 3 in conf at 302 ypg against FBS – 447 yds last week). The pass def is the weakness of K St – it is why I played Missouri against them a few weeks back. K St does have a good off line and runs the ball pretty well. Johnson is fast but this week TCU is an athletic defense so it will help them in defending against the zone read run game. K St is ninth in total offense ypg and eleventh in pass off ypg in the conference.
TCU has yet to have their bye which isn’t ideal as K st had one a few weeks ago. This is the last game before their bye and that should energize them. TCU has the top rated def in PFF in the big 12 and is number 1 in coverage rating with their excellent secondary so they should be able to dial in on the run. TCU could easily be 6-1 and lets face it – they would destroy Colorado if they played them now. I think they will finish the season strong and I like their defense which is big for playing on the road. I love games where I get at least 7 points and I think the team can win. I expect this to be a close game and I think TCU gets the win here and if they don’t we are plus a TD.
Before I add some picks I am going to comment on something. Whatever you do in your betting try and be consistent. If you want to follow picks of someone you need to be all in and do it – not just pick and choose. I could see going all in and giving it a certain dollar amount or amount of time but if you follow and then after one week of losing quit that is not smart. Everyone has losing weeks – EVERYONE – if you don’t think so you are naïve. Same with fading – all in or nothing.
The other option you have is to look at people’s picks you respect and use it as a resource and look into the game and see if you like it. At the end of the day you have to be honest with yourself – do you win at this or not? If you don’t then you might want to re-evaluate. If you do then have confidence in what you do and don’t let people sway you – its why I say if you like the opposite side of one of my plays then I encourage you to play it. Reason is that if you don’t and play what I or someone else gives and it loses you will be twice as mad. People always will be more upset playing someone else’s picks than there own.
Last – have respect for others. It takes guts to post picks and accurately keep track of your picks. Takes more guts to do write ups because sometimes write ups will be dead wrong. Nobody knows everything so if you like the opposite side be respectful – maybe bring a valid point to the discussion for the opposite side. At the end of the day this is a grueling thing we do – it is very difficult to win for an entire season. Anyone can have a good week or two but how many get through it all successfully for a year? And when successful you deal with these despicable books that cut u off - people wouldn’t believe what I have dealt with. Last point – not to harp on these people but below are actual records from 3 so called experts. I respect Phil Steel – I use his magazine but his power sweep has not been profitable for a while – take a look at this year. Point being – what we do is hard so you have to be realistic – if you expect to hit 80-90% each week you are dreaming.
The Bear 21-26-1
Stanford Steve 11-19-2
Phil Steele PS – 16-27 and -36.5 stars
Adding
4* UCF-Okl FH Over 32.5
2* Tenn +8.5
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Before I add some picks I am going to comment on something. Whatever you do in your betting try and be consistent. If you want to follow picks of someone you need to be all in and do it – not just pick and choose. I could see going all in and giving it a certain dollar amount or amount of time but if you follow and then after one week of losing quit that is not smart. Everyone has losing weeks – EVERYONE – if you don’t think so you are naïve. Same with fading – all in or nothing.
The other option you have is to look at people’s picks you respect and use it as a resource and look into the game and see if you like it. At the end of the day you have to be honest with yourself – do you win at this or not? If you don’t then you might want to re-evaluate. If you do then have confidence in what you do and don’t let people sway you – its why I say if you like the opposite side of one of my plays then I encourage you to play it. Reason is that if you don’t and play what I or someone else gives and it loses you will be twice as mad. People always will be more upset playing someone else’s picks than there own.
Last – have respect for others. It takes guts to post picks and accurately keep track of your picks. Takes more guts to do write ups because sometimes write ups will be dead wrong. Nobody knows everything so if you like the opposite side be respectful – maybe bring a valid point to the discussion for the opposite side. At the end of the day this is a grueling thing we do – it is very difficult to win for an entire season. Anyone can have a good week or two but how many get through it all successfully for a year? And when successful you deal with these despicable books that cut u off - people wouldn’t believe what I have dealt with. Last point – not to harp on these people but below are actual records from 3 so called experts. I respect Phil Steel – I use his magazine but his power sweep has not been profitable for a while – take a look at this year. Point being – what we do is hard so you have to be realistic – if you expect to hit 80-90% each week you are dreaming.
I would play this at any number – maybe down it a star if it gets to 24. You could also FH it as well. This will be the first game for Texas after the bye week. Coming off a loss they have no margin for error and will need to win out so I expect a very focused Texas team in this one. Playing another opponent from Texas will help as well. I think Houston and BYU are the two worst teams in the big 12. Houston was outplayed against WV and gave up over 500 yds to a very average offense. This Houston defense is not very good. I think Texas will be able to score as much as they want to in this one. Smith has shown signs at QB but this week he is going against a top notch defense and I expect the Texas front to create issues for him.
I think there is a drop off this year in the big 12 after Texas & Okl. When they play the lesser teams the only question will be on their focus for the game. With Texas coming off a loss I believe they are itching to get back on the field. They are one of the top teams in the country and should show that in this one. They should dominate Hou on both sides of the ball. I think this game will look like the game against Baylor or maybe how TCU played against Hou. I just don’t see Houston doing much in this one and Texas will want to be impressive as their goal is to make the playoff so winning impressively each week helps. They will be a hard team to bet against the rest of the year. I expect them to dominate this one and win easily
Prediction: Texas by 31
4.5* UCF-Okl FH Over 32.5
Both rank in top 25 in seconds per play so pace should be good. Plumlee will start for UCF which also helps. I think this goes over game total as well but the logic in FH is in case Okl gets up and UCF struggles to score. It’s the only way I see this going under the game total. In their 3 conf games UCF has given up 490 ypg and 44, 36, and 51 pts. Now they face the best offense they have played so I don’t see them slowing down Okl. On the other side UCF can score and has good speed on offense. I think they will be better with Plumlee and they are off a bye which helps. In their 3 conf games they avg 415 ypg and have scored 31, 35, and 22 all without Plumlee (he barely played at Kansas).
The pace will be there and with both coming off a bye I expect them to show some things the other team didn’t prepare for. I think there will be a lot of possessions which should equal points. I could see 7 possessions each in this one which means we only need 5 tds in 13-14 total possessions.
Prediction: 42 pts
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3* Texas -21.5
I would play this at any number – maybe down it a star if it gets to 24. You could also FH it as well. This will be the first game for Texas after the bye week. Coming off a loss they have no margin for error and will need to win out so I expect a very focused Texas team in this one. Playing another opponent from Texas will help as well. I think Houston and BYU are the two worst teams in the big 12. Houston was outplayed against WV and gave up over 500 yds to a very average offense. This Houston defense is not very good. I think Texas will be able to score as much as they want to in this one. Smith has shown signs at QB but this week he is going against a top notch defense and I expect the Texas front to create issues for him.
I think there is a drop off this year in the big 12 after Texas & Okl. When they play the lesser teams the only question will be on their focus for the game. With Texas coming off a loss I believe they are itching to get back on the field. They are one of the top teams in the country and should show that in this one. They should dominate Hou on both sides of the ball. I think this game will look like the game against Baylor or maybe how TCU played against Hou. I just don’t see Houston doing much in this one and Texas will want to be impressive as their goal is to make the playoff so winning impressively each week helps. They will be a hard team to bet against the rest of the year. I expect them to dominate this one and win easily
Prediction: Texas by 31
4.5* UCF-Okl FH Over 32.5
Both rank in top 25 in seconds per play so pace should be good. Plumlee will start for UCF which also helps. I think this goes over game total as well but the logic in FH is in case Okl gets up and UCF struggles to score. It’s the only way I see this going under the game total. In their 3 conf games UCF has given up 490 ypg and 44, 36, and 51 pts. Now they face the best offense they have played so I don’t see them slowing down Okl. On the other side UCF can score and has good speed on offense. I think they will be better with Plumlee and they are off a bye which helps. In their 3 conf games they avg 415 ypg and have scored 31, 35, and 22 all without Plumlee (he barely played at Kansas).
The pace will be there and with both coming off a bye I expect them to show some things the other team didn’t prepare for. I think there will be a lot of possessions which should equal points. I could see 7 possessions each in this one which means we only need 5 tds in 13-14 total possessions.
Line down to 3.5. Before I get into this game a little lets clarify one thing – the big ten west is awful. I thought maybe Wisconsin might get it going but apparently not so we are left with a division that is not good at all. None of them can play with Mich, Ohio St, or Penn St – they all have and would get destroyed.
Iowa lost All for the season so they now have nothing in the passing game. Iowa has won like they are playing for the past couple of years but this year they are even worse on offense and really aren’t winning the turnover margin like normal. They avg 206 ypg in conf games and if you take out the big run in each of the last 2 games that goes down to 169. They have completed 6 passes in 3 of their 4 big ten games and last week threw for 37 yds. Give them credit – their def and special teams are excellent. This week they are playing a Minn team that hasn’t been good either but I will explain why I will play them
Couple points for why I like this bet. Minn is off a bye – they will be rested compared to Iowa who is banged up and has yet to have their bye and off a very physical game at Wisc. I think Minn will be prepared for this game. They have also ran the ball well on Iowa the last 2 years – last year over 300 yds (by far the most against Iowa) and the year before 189 yds (only Mich ran for more on Iowa). They have a big O-line (3 over 320 lbs). They aren’t as good on off this year but I think their style can be successful against Iowa as they don’t have a lot of negative plays and should be able to get in manageable third downs. Last – their kicker is excellent (at least as good as Iowa’s) and they have a solid punter (not as good as Taylor but nobody really is). This is big in a game like this. Iowa creates so much field position with Taylor that it often gets overlooked.
Minn should get Taylor back (rb) and Lindenberg is suppose to make his debut (not confirmed but likely) which would be big as he is their best def player. Minn has outplayed Iowa the past 2 years and lost (both close) and overall has not faired well against Iowa. I like Rossi the def coordinator and I think he will have them ready to shut down the Iowa offense. Offensively – Minn isn’t very good but I think you can run on Iowa and Minn has show that with their scheme and size. I think they can do enough in this one. Minn also only has turned the ball over 8 times this year and are plus 2 compared to Iowa who has 10 and is plus 1 in margin.
Iowa continues to win and is tough at home so it would be hard to play this much more than a 2 star play as a result. Iowa can lose to anyone in the big ten with the way they play. I think Minn can match them in all 3 phases and this will be a defensive struggle. They are rested and should be prepared off the bye. I think this will be within 3 pts either way and Minn is capable of winning the game.
Prediction: Minn by 1
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2* Minn +5.5
Line down to 3.5. Before I get into this game a little lets clarify one thing – the big ten west is awful. I thought maybe Wisconsin might get it going but apparently not so we are left with a division that is not good at all. None of them can play with Mich, Ohio St, or Penn St – they all have and would get destroyed.
Iowa lost All for the season so they now have nothing in the passing game. Iowa has won like they are playing for the past couple of years but this year they are even worse on offense and really aren’t winning the turnover margin like normal. They avg 206 ypg in conf games and if you take out the big run in each of the last 2 games that goes down to 169. They have completed 6 passes in 3 of their 4 big ten games and last week threw for 37 yds. Give them credit – their def and special teams are excellent. This week they are playing a Minn team that hasn’t been good either but I will explain why I will play them
Couple points for why I like this bet. Minn is off a bye – they will be rested compared to Iowa who is banged up and has yet to have their bye and off a very physical game at Wisc. I think Minn will be prepared for this game. They have also ran the ball well on Iowa the last 2 years – last year over 300 yds (by far the most against Iowa) and the year before 189 yds (only Mich ran for more on Iowa). They have a big O-line (3 over 320 lbs). They aren’t as good on off this year but I think their style can be successful against Iowa as they don’t have a lot of negative plays and should be able to get in manageable third downs. Last – their kicker is excellent (at least as good as Iowa’s) and they have a solid punter (not as good as Taylor but nobody really is). This is big in a game like this. Iowa creates so much field position with Taylor that it often gets overlooked.
Minn should get Taylor back (rb) and Lindenberg is suppose to make his debut (not confirmed but likely) which would be big as he is their best def player. Minn has outplayed Iowa the past 2 years and lost (both close) and overall has not faired well against Iowa. I like Rossi the def coordinator and I think he will have them ready to shut down the Iowa offense. Offensively – Minn isn’t very good but I think you can run on Iowa and Minn has show that with their scheme and size. I think they can do enough in this one. Minn also only has turned the ball over 8 times this year and are plus 2 compared to Iowa who has 10 and is plus 1 in margin.
Iowa continues to win and is tough at home so it would be hard to play this much more than a 2 star play as a result. Iowa can lose to anyone in the big ten with the way they play. I think Minn can match them in all 3 phases and this will be a defensive struggle. They are rested and should be prepared off the bye. I think this will be within 3 pts either way and Minn is capable of winning the game.
Spread has gone up to -2.5 and I’ve even seen 3. Baylor is off a bye and Cincy had their bye before last week. I don’t think Baylor is a very good team this year and Cincy is a little better and at home. Baylor can’t stop the run – they are thirteenth in the big 12 against FBS teams at 192 ypg and 4.89 ypc allowed (5.37 ypc in 3 conf games). Running the ball is what Cincy does – they are fourth in the big 12 at 197 ypg and 4.57 ypc. They are an aggressive def and are second in the big 12 in pressure rating at 79.8 going against a Baylor team that struggles to protect the QB and gives up 3.6 sacks/gm against FBS teams. I like both of these matchups for Cincy.
Cincy got handled by Iowa St last week which doesn’t look good but Iowa St continues to get better and they are a pretty good team right now. Cincy did hang with Okl and really dominated BYU but lost. Baylor looked terrible against a Texas Tech team that is really looking below avg right now and they got fortunate to come back against a UCF team without Plumlee who doesn’t look very good right now. I don’t think Aranda is doing a very good job with this program – this is year 3 and it is now his team. He won with players he didn’t recruit. I am not a fan of Satterfield either but Cincy looks better on the field than what I see from Baylor plus they are at home. The Baylor def is last in big 12 in total def ypg at 431 against FBS teams (Cincy is third at 340). Even though Aranda is known for defense they are not good on that side of the ball and Cincy has the better defense in this one. I think Cincy will be able to run the ball and pressure Shapen in this one and get the win.
Prediction: Cincy by 5
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2* Cincy -1
Spread has gone up to -2.5 and I’ve even seen 3. Baylor is off a bye and Cincy had their bye before last week. I don’t think Baylor is a very good team this year and Cincy is a little better and at home. Baylor can’t stop the run – they are thirteenth in the big 12 against FBS teams at 192 ypg and 4.89 ypc allowed (5.37 ypc in 3 conf games). Running the ball is what Cincy does – they are fourth in the big 12 at 197 ypg and 4.57 ypc. They are an aggressive def and are second in the big 12 in pressure rating at 79.8 going against a Baylor team that struggles to protect the QB and gives up 3.6 sacks/gm against FBS teams. I like both of these matchups for Cincy.
Cincy got handled by Iowa St last week which doesn’t look good but Iowa St continues to get better and they are a pretty good team right now. Cincy did hang with Okl and really dominated BYU but lost. Baylor looked terrible against a Texas Tech team that is really looking below avg right now and they got fortunate to come back against a UCF team without Plumlee who doesn’t look very good right now. I don’t think Aranda is doing a very good job with this program – this is year 3 and it is now his team. He won with players he didn’t recruit. I am not a fan of Satterfield either but Cincy looks better on the field than what I see from Baylor plus they are at home. The Baylor def is last in big 12 in total def ypg at 431 against FBS teams (Cincy is third at 340). Even though Aranda is known for defense they are not good on that side of the ball and Cincy has the better defense in this one. I think Cincy will be able to run the ball and pressure Shapen in this one and get the win.
Very thorough and insightful write ups, and congrats on a solid 1st half of season. Hope you finish strong except for your Tenn pick because I will be on the other side. I really think Alabama will be out for blood. Tenn is very good but the situational edge seems to favor Bama imho. I believe the results last week might back this up as Bama was in a huge sandwich game, had to get up for A&M and was looking ahead to this week and Tenn just came off with a big emotional win at home against A&M. Either way good luck the rest of the season.
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Very thorough and insightful write ups, and congrats on a solid 1st half of season. Hope you finish strong except for your Tenn pick because I will be on the other side. I really think Alabama will be out for blood. Tenn is very good but the situational edge seems to favor Bama imho. I believe the results last week might back this up as Bama was in a huge sandwich game, had to get up for A&M and was looking ahead to this week and Tenn just came off with a big emotional win at home against A&M. Either way good luck the rest of the season.
Should be able to get 9 or 9.5 now if you like the game and haven’t bet it. Tough to go against Bama but there are some matchups I like in this game. The main thing about this game is the line of scrimmage when Bama has the ball. Bama has major issues protecting Milroe. Their left tackle Proctor is a true freshman and has given up 7 sacks on the year. The left tackle position has allowed 10 sacks on the year (5 last week). Tenn as a team has only allowed 9 all year. Tenn has one of the best DE combos in the nation and James Pearce is the top rated pass rusher in the SEC (second in nation) according to PFF – he has 6 sacks on year. He will be lined up over Proctor. This is going to be a major issue for Bama. Baron is on the other side and is highly rated as well and has 5 sacks. Bama has allowed 31 sacks (130 in the nation) and Tenn avgs 3.4 per game against FBS (twelfth in nation). Tenn is also sixth in the nation at plays over 10 yds allowed (53 in 5 games against FBS)
The other thing is Bama isn’t running the ball as well this year (3.36 ypc in 4 SEC games) and now going against an excellent front who defends the run well also (fifth in SEC games). Bama has also been terrible in the redzone – 46% TD in 4 SEC games. Add in they have allowed 7.25 tkl/loss per game in SEC games (sec to last in SEC) and Tenn should do well defensively.
On the other side Bama has the advantage as their def is very good. One thing I do like is Tenn is eighth in the nation in tkl/loss allowed and 23 in sacks allowed in nation at 1.6 per game. So they do a good job not taking negative plays. They are also good on third downs – 48% in 3 conf games. Tenn runs well and was able to rush for 232 yds against an excellent A&M def last week so even against a very good rush def in Bama they might be able to run some in this one. Tenn hasn’t been great passing so they will have to find a way to make some plays passing.
Bama rarely loses at home and this will be a very difficult game for Tenn. Being at home will help the Bama off line some. The one thing I don’t like about the game is its only the second true road game for Tenn and they lost their only one at Florida and didn’t play well. They did have their bye before the A&M game and Bama has yet to have their bye so they should be more rested. I like the matchup of the Tenn def against the Bama offense and I think their def will keep them in this game. It would not be surprising to me if Tenn won but most likely Bama will find a way to win a close defensive game.
Prediction: Bama by 5
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2* Tenn +8.5
Should be able to get 9 or 9.5 now if you like the game and haven’t bet it. Tough to go against Bama but there are some matchups I like in this game. The main thing about this game is the line of scrimmage when Bama has the ball. Bama has major issues protecting Milroe. Their left tackle Proctor is a true freshman and has given up 7 sacks on the year. The left tackle position has allowed 10 sacks on the year (5 last week). Tenn as a team has only allowed 9 all year. Tenn has one of the best DE combos in the nation and James Pearce is the top rated pass rusher in the SEC (second in nation) according to PFF – he has 6 sacks on year. He will be lined up over Proctor. This is going to be a major issue for Bama. Baron is on the other side and is highly rated as well and has 5 sacks. Bama has allowed 31 sacks (130 in the nation) and Tenn avgs 3.4 per game against FBS (twelfth in nation). Tenn is also sixth in the nation at plays over 10 yds allowed (53 in 5 games against FBS)
The other thing is Bama isn’t running the ball as well this year (3.36 ypc in 4 SEC games) and now going against an excellent front who defends the run well also (fifth in SEC games). Bama has also been terrible in the redzone – 46% TD in 4 SEC games. Add in they have allowed 7.25 tkl/loss per game in SEC games (sec to last in SEC) and Tenn should do well defensively.
On the other side Bama has the advantage as their def is very good. One thing I do like is Tenn is eighth in the nation in tkl/loss allowed and 23 in sacks allowed in nation at 1.6 per game. So they do a good job not taking negative plays. They are also good on third downs – 48% in 3 conf games. Tenn runs well and was able to rush for 232 yds against an excellent A&M def last week so even against a very good rush def in Bama they might be able to run some in this one. Tenn hasn’t been great passing so they will have to find a way to make some plays passing.
Bama rarely loses at home and this will be a very difficult game for Tenn. Being at home will help the Bama off line some. The one thing I don’t like about the game is its only the second true road game for Tenn and they lost their only one at Florida and didn’t play well. They did have their bye before the A&M game and Bama has yet to have their bye so they should be more rested. I like the matchup of the Tenn def against the Bama offense and I think their def will keep them in this game. It would not be surprising to me if Tenn won but most likely Bama will find a way to win a close defensive game.
For reasons listed above. Both teams have been terrible in the redzone – Bama 46% and Tenn 41% TD in SEC games. Only A&M is worse. Both defenses are good – Bama 46% and Tenn 55% TD allowed. Both teams have been very good at not allowing plays over 10 yds. They are the top 2 overall defenses in SEC according to PFF. This includes top 2 in pressure and coverage. Also top 2 special teams ratings in SEC. All good for the under. I see this has a defensive game with points hard to come by.
Prediction: 39 pts
Final Card
4* TCU +7.5 with 1* ML +235
4.5* UCF-Okl FH over 32.5
3* Tenn-Bama Under 49
3* Tex – 21.5
2* Cincy -1
2* Tenn +8.5
2* Minn +5.5
Should be final card – possible I add a game but doubtful. Hope the info helps – best of luck to everyone.
2
Adding 3* Tenn-Bama Under 49
For reasons listed above. Both teams have been terrible in the redzone – Bama 46% and Tenn 41% TD in SEC games. Only A&M is worse. Both defenses are good – Bama 46% and Tenn 55% TD allowed. Both teams have been very good at not allowing plays over 10 yds. They are the top 2 overall defenses in SEC according to PFF. This includes top 2 in pressure and coverage. Also top 2 special teams ratings in SEC. All good for the under. I see this has a defensive game with points hard to come by.
Prediction: 39 pts
Final Card
4* TCU +7.5 with 1* ML +235
4.5* UCF-Okl FH over 32.5
3* Tenn-Bama Under 49
3* Tex – 21.5
2* Cincy -1
2* Tenn +8.5
2* Minn +5.5
Should be final card – possible I add a game but doubtful. Hope the info helps – best of luck to everyone.
Before I add some picks I am going to comment on something. Whatever you do in your betting try and be consistent. If you want to follow picks of someone you need to be all in and do it – not just pick and choose. I could see going all in and giving it a certain dollar amount or amount of time but if you follow and then after one week of losing quit that is not smart. Everyone has losing weeks – EVERYONE – if you don’t think so you are naïve. Same with fading – all in or nothing. The other option you have is to look at people’s picks you respect and use it as a resource and look into the game and see if you like it. At the end of the day you have to be honest with yourself – do you win at this or not? If you don’t then you might want to re-evaluate. If you do then have confidence in what you do and don’t let people sway you – its why I say if you like the opposite side of one of my plays then I encourage you to play it. Reason is that if you don’t and play what I or someone else gives and it loses you will be twice as mad. People always will be more upset playing someone else’s picks than there own. Last – have respect for others. It takes guts to post picks and accurately keep track of your picks. Takes more guts to do write ups because sometimes write ups will be dead wrong. Nobody knows everything so if you like the opposite side be respectful – maybe bring a valid point to the discussion for the opposite side. At the end of the day this is a grueling thing we do – it is very difficult to win for an entire season. Anyone can have a good week or two but how many get through it all successfully for a year? And when successful you deal with these despicable books that cut u off - people wouldn’t believe what I have dealt with. Last point – not to harp on these people but below are actual records from 3 so called experts. I respect Phil Steel – I use his magazine but his power sweep has not been profitable for a while – take a look at this year. Point being – what we do is hard so you have to be realistic – if you expect to hit 80-90% each week you are dreaming. The Bear 21-26-1 Stanford Steve 11-19-2 Phil Steele PS – 16-27 and -36.5 stars Adding 4* UCF-Okl FH Over 32.5 2* Tenn +8.5
Well said
1
Quote Originally Posted by CFBLMONSTER:
Before I add some picks I am going to comment on something. Whatever you do in your betting try and be consistent. If you want to follow picks of someone you need to be all in and do it – not just pick and choose. I could see going all in and giving it a certain dollar amount or amount of time but if you follow and then after one week of losing quit that is not smart. Everyone has losing weeks – EVERYONE – if you don’t think so you are naïve. Same with fading – all in or nothing. The other option you have is to look at people’s picks you respect and use it as a resource and look into the game and see if you like it. At the end of the day you have to be honest with yourself – do you win at this or not? If you don’t then you might want to re-evaluate. If you do then have confidence in what you do and don’t let people sway you – its why I say if you like the opposite side of one of my plays then I encourage you to play it. Reason is that if you don’t and play what I or someone else gives and it loses you will be twice as mad. People always will be more upset playing someone else’s picks than there own. Last – have respect for others. It takes guts to post picks and accurately keep track of your picks. Takes more guts to do write ups because sometimes write ups will be dead wrong. Nobody knows everything so if you like the opposite side be respectful – maybe bring a valid point to the discussion for the opposite side. At the end of the day this is a grueling thing we do – it is very difficult to win for an entire season. Anyone can have a good week or two but how many get through it all successfully for a year? And when successful you deal with these despicable books that cut u off - people wouldn’t believe what I have dealt with. Last point – not to harp on these people but below are actual records from 3 so called experts. I respect Phil Steel – I use his magazine but his power sweep has not been profitable for a while – take a look at this year. Point being – what we do is hard so you have to be realistic – if you expect to hit 80-90% each week you are dreaming. The Bear 21-26-1 Stanford Steve 11-19-2 Phil Steele PS – 16-27 and -36.5 stars Adding 4* UCF-Okl FH Over 32.5 2* Tenn +8.5
missouri is covered in FB last 5 games. SC has not cov last 3 in FH. SC is worst def in SEC and worst pass def. They have to blitz to get pressure and Brady Cook has a 128 QBR against the blitz. Missouri is third in SEC in passing and Cook is having a great year. SC top rated corner on PDF is number 49 in SEC. SC without their best off lineman and Wells remains out. Missouri has been a lot better at home the past couple years. SC is off a crushing loss and is around -120 ypg in sec play. I think Missouri jumps on them early.
prediction - Missouri by 11
1
Adding 3* Missouri FH -4.5
missouri is covered in FB last 5 games. SC has not cov last 3 in FH. SC is worst def in SEC and worst pass def. They have to blitz to get pressure and Brady Cook has a 128 QBR against the blitz. Missouri is third in SEC in passing and Cook is having a great year. SC top rated corner on PDF is number 49 in SEC. SC without their best off lineman and Wells remains out. Missouri has been a lot better at home the past couple years. SC is off a crushing loss and is around -120 ypg in sec play. I think Missouri jumps on them early.
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