Posted:
#1
I've spent too much time trying to figure this out. So here is what I've found, please add what I may be missing.
Preseason Connelly had this set at -11 for BG. BGSU S+P was 60 (now 72), MTSU was 90 (now 86). 74% chance for BGSU to win.
BGSU replaces coach, QB and many skill players, but returns 4/5 O-lineman.
BGSU gets abused by Ohio State. 
BGSU goes -3 in TO, but still outgains and wins vs ND (right now SAG has them comparable to Kent st)
MTSU abuses AL A+M (ranked 244 by SAG), then lets vandy and its woeful offense score 47 (in a weird lighting delayed game)
The Raw Numbers are ugly for BGSU due to Ohio St game, and Sag has this somewhere between pk and MTSU -4.
The "opener" of -1.5 seems more fanciful than real, as most books opened it at -5.5 or so for MTSU. Since then bet to -6.5.
I pre-set it at -3 BGSU, basically a pk'em on a neutral field. But the line is now 10 on a neutral field. In the long run MTSU might be better,I sure as heck don't know, but 10 pts better?
This discrepancy between my line and the actual line makes me look deep to find what I may have missed, as pro linemakers are pretty good at their jobs.
This discrepancy between my line and the actual line makes me look deep to find what I may have missed, as pro linemakers are pretty good at their jobs.I've read just about every piece of local news, and can't find anything to justify not taking the home dog here. (haven't played it yet, FYI)
Anyone have a take on this game?
0
. And it is that line jump that is causing me pause.
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