Why is Bowling Green favorite?

I would like to know 

Perception and playing in Detroit. Jerry Kill has done a great job since taking over as head coach this year. Very deserving for a great head coach that has paid his dues! 

Jedi mind tricks. 

@Frank the Bank

 I am asking the same question, New Mex has played the tougher schedule, and has a better defense, 33rd ranked vs 105th for BG which has feasted on Macc opponents......

@KeyMaster

 New mexico state played the tougher schedule?? Umm.....did you do any research before posting? Out of 131 teams new mexico state had the 131st toughest schedule--literally the easiest schedule in all of college football! Bowling green was #104.

NMST had the worst schedule in the FBS. If you look at their stats you have to throw out a few games - Minn, Wisc, Missouri - all teams they should lose to easily and BG would as well. They beat Lamar who was 1-11 in FCS and a Valpo team they scheduled last min who was playing first game ever against FBS team.  They were 4-3 in other games with 3 wins against awful teams - the win against Liberty was impressive but was the week where Freeze was a distraction and left - Liberty flat out didn’t show up.  

BG I would throw out UCLA and Miss St - same reason as above.  BG was 5-3 in the MAC - think what you want of the MAC but most of those teams r better than half the teams on NMST schedule. NMST runs an option type off - BG has extra time to prep.  BG is actually decent up front and is playing a very weak off.  NMST def is decent as well if you look at compared to lower level FBS teams. BG led the MAC in sacks and forced 22 turnovers - NMST threw 12 picks and they don’t pass much.  If BG slows the run and forces them to pass it will be very difficult for NMST to win.  I think the spread is about right - BG is a little bit better team but that doesn’t mean they will win - good luck.  

BG will win.

Facts + Logic   =  helpful    

Post more often like this

@Spyder_Man

 I don't rate the MAC very highly when it comes to schedule strength and I do my own research and simulations in addition to reviewing the stats that everyone looks at, so based on that aside from the typical stats everyone has access to I weight things a little differently.  I guess we will see how the game pans out. I would not be shocked if BG won but looking at everything as a whole I think NMS covers and potentially wins this game. I have the spread as being NMS -1 so good value in the dog here.   Its a shitty matchup with both squads undeserving of a Bowl game but heck money talks.

This may help answer the question:

New Mexico State vs Bowling Green
When: 2:30 PM ET, Monday, December 26, 2022
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
By Field Level Media
Matt McDonald could appeal for another season, but the Bowling Green quarterback could be stepping on the field for the final time when the Falcons play New Mexico State in the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit on Dec. 26.

That doesn't mean just his last time for Bowling Green, but his last competitive game at any level.

"I know that's a possibility and I'm OK with that. I have no regrets," McDonald said. "We've overcome a lot over the last couple years and we've gotten to this point, bowl game, haven't done that in the last seven years.

"I thought that was pretty special and I just want to end it with a win and bring a bowl game victory back to Bowling Green."

The Falcons (6-6) are in their first bowl game since losing 58-27 to Georgia Southern in the 2015 GoDaddy.com Bowl when they face New Mexico State (6-6), which won five of its last six games.

McDonald has thrown for 2,639 yards, 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season, his second as Bowling Green's full-time starter. The last contest wasn't good as McDonald was intercepted three times during a 38-14 road loss against Ohio.

McDonald spent two seasons at Boston College and transferred to Bowling Green after the 2018 season. He sat out 2019 to meet transfer regulations and started five games in 2020 and the bowl game start will be his 29th for the Falcons.

"He got his brains beat in here for two years and was able to overcome and get out of the bad habits that that creates whenever you're not around a good team," Falcons coach Scot Loeffler said. "Matt's very important. I don't want to see him go, but it's time."

New Mexico State has a hot quarterback in Diego Pavia, who passed for seven touchdowns and rushed for four over the past two games -- routs of 49-14 over Liberty and 65-3 over FCS Valparaiso.

Pavia sustained a hamstring injury against Valpo.

"He's about 90 percent -- he will be ready to play unless he has a setback," Aggies coach Jerry Kill said. "We are going to be really careful with him and everything."

Gavin Frakes is receiving extra practice repetitions, though Pavia said he expects to play in the program's first bowl game since beating Utah State 26-20 in the 2017 Arizona Bowl.

"It's really just working on the neck up and all of the mental stuff that we are getting prepared for," Pavia told reporters. "... We are going to develop a great game plan."

New Mexico State's defense is led by linebacker Chris Ojoh (101 tackles), while Bowling Green features defensive end Karl Brooks, who is tied for seventh in the nation with 10 total sacks.

--Field Level Media

@CFBLMONSTER

 Nice and informative writeup.  What we need on the Forum, not simply a pick with no rationale to support it.

@CFBLM

Good info! 

@Frank the Bank

 Because they can Light it up vs an average high school team like th Aggies. Looks like many here in the forum have not seen them play.

I think it should be noted that the Aggies have only made 50% of their field goal attempts this year.  That could be the difference in a tight ball game.

It's concerning that all of BG's losses are of the blowout variety, which may indicate they quit.  However, they have followed all of their losses with victories. So maybe they'll be more motivated in this one.  However, BG is 1-4-1 in their last 6 bowl games.  I like Jerry Kill.  The gophers hadn't had a defense in 40 plus years prior to kill.  He made that defense respectable.  I think he's a good coach, and will have NMSU playing well.  I think it depends on which Jekyl and Hide team we get in BG.  BG is 113th in that nation in red zone opportunities, having only scored 19 touchdowns in 36 red zone opportunities.  They settled for 9 fgs, and got shut out in 10 of those trips inside the 20.  If they are struggle in the red zone today, and NMSU is missing fgs, the under may come into play.  Bowling G is 129th in penalty yards against, perhaps thats why they struggle in the red zone.  I suspect thats probably more from a lousy pass defense, and taking too many DPI's, but I haven't watched a minute of falcon football, so I wouldn't know.  I do know they rank 120th in stopping 3rd downs.  That should be concerning.  But both teams suck converting 3rd downs, so again, that might lead to an under.  Kills boys don't really turn the ball over much.  Don't look for help in that regard.  Bowling green is so inconsistent, it's hard to make a play one way or the other.  In my mind there are better places to risk your money.  I suppose, considering it's a coinflip whether BG shows up or not, perhaps the right play is to take NMSU on the ML, and get some plus odds.  I think I'll pass.

Both of these coaches are Mediocre

Trap to made bg look good :) 

bowling green sucks, mcdonald sucks