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Why Oregon wins!!

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Posted: #1
Florida State IMO has been extremely fortunate to be undefeated at this point in the season. If you look closely at their games they could have had as many as four loses and I believe trailed by 2 TD's in at least 3 or 4 of those games. State supporters will say that's why they are a great team.The difference in this game is when Oregon gets up by 2 TD's and they will, Florida State will not be able to overcome that kind of deficit. Oregon will continue to pour it on as they are looking to make a statement here. FYI I do not have a favorite team, I am just a huge college football fan and a William and Mary grad. I look at several threads and occasionally will comment. This is my first post making a pick. I believe the final score will be somewhere in the neighborhood of Oregon 41 Fla State 24 -27.  I feel so strongly about this game that half of this years winnings will be on this game, approx $1800. And for those of you who will ask if you're that confident why not bet all your winnings, the answer is simple. My parents didn't raise a fool. Good luck to all  
 
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Posted: #2
Horrible reasons to lay half your roll. Sounds or reads like your mind was already made up when the match ups came out. Be worried about the size in the trenches and the defenses Oregon is used to facing in the 12, compared to what the Seminoles do. I have it as an extremely close game, and will be taking the points. GL 
 
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Posted: #3
Statement? It's the fuckking nat'l title, they're in. 
 
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Posted: #4
FLORIDA STATE WILL EXPOSE OREGON, PUT SOME ON ML TO TIGHTEN THAT BELT
 
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Posted: #5
sicsemper, i think you're right.  The fact that the oddsmaker have let this line floating out there is a sign.  A lot of people say FSU is a live dog.  And I would normally buy this, but this is such a high profile game and I don't think there's such a thing as easy money. 
 
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Posted: #6
We are getting excellent value on this FSU line based on the public perception that "they don't play anybody". It's obvious to me after watching some of these bowl games that the ACC is the most UNDERRATED conference in all of college football while the pac 12 is one of the more overrated. Outside of the pac 12 I don't think we see the same video game style offense that we are used to seeing from the ducks. ACC has been money and FSU will add on to that
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by DLC53:

We are getting excellent value on this FSU line based on the public perception that "they don't play anybody". It's obvious to me after watching some of these bowl games that the ACC is the most UNDERRATED conference in all of college football while the pac 12 is one of the more overrated. Outside of the pac 12 I don't think we see the same video game style offense that we are used to seeing from the ducks. ACC has been money and FSU will add on to that

Man's got a good point here. 
 
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Posted: #8
FSU have a team stacked with NFL talent. Mock drafts have up to 7/8 FSU players in the first two draft rounds. It will be a team Oregon haven't faced all season long.


 
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Posted: #9
Love Oregon to win but FSU is going into a TON of 10 point teasers in my little workshop....BOL
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by THE_PRESIDENT:

FLORIDA STATE WILL EXPOSE OREGON, PUT SOME ON ML TO TIGHTEN THAT BELT

 
Looks like you're in the money!! Per scores and odds.com the current public betting trends favor Fla St for the side 62% - 38% and for the Money Line 90% - 10%. Guess Vegas is going to take a bath on this game, guess I will too. GL
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyClay:

sicsemper, i think you're right.  The fact that the oddsmaker have let this line floating out there is a sign.  A lot of people say FSU is a live dog.  And I would normally buy this, but this is such a high profile game and I don't think there's such a thing as easy money.  

 
Hey Johnny I think you're right thinking I'm right, Heavy betting on Fla St both side and money line and the line isn't moving. I wouldn't be surprised to see the line at 10 on game day. GL to all
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Sicsemper:

Florida State IMO has been extremely fortunate to be undefeated at this point in the season. If you look closely at their games they could have had as many as four loses and I believe trailed by 2 TD's in at least 3 or 4 of those games. State supporters will say that's why they are a great team.The difference in this game is when Oregon gets up by 2 TD's and they will, Florida State will not be able to overcome that kind of deficit. Oregon will continue to pour it on as they are looking to make a statement here. FYI I do not have a favorite team, I am just a huge college football fan and a William and Mary grad. I look at several threads and occasionally will comment. This is my first post making a pick. I believe the final score will be somewhere in the neighborhood of Oregon 41 Fla State 24 -27.  I feel so strongly about this game that half of this years winnings will be on this game, approx $1800. And for those of you who will ask if you're that confident why not bet all your winnings, the answer is simple. My parents didn't raise a fool. Good luck to all   

 
Added:

 TCU-3 bought the hook
 Ohio State +9 But Bama wins SU
If I am correct it's Alabama and Oregon in the finals. Will have a play. GL to all
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Sicsemper:

Looks like you're in the money!! Per scores and odds.com the current public betting trends favor Fla St for the side 62% - 38% and for the Money Line 90% - 10%. Guess Vegas is going to take a bath on this game, guess I will too. GL

 

MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT YOU CANNOT CONSIDER HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE ON ONE SIDE PERCENTAGE WISE.  THE FIGURES ARE MISLEADING AND SOMETIMES THE PUBLIC WINS.  WHEN ONE FADES THE NUMBERS, YOU ARE FACTORING IN WHAT VEGAS WANTS YOU TO TAKE.  I BOIL OUT THE WATER AND MAKE MY CHOICE, FLA STATE PLAYS UP TO THEIR MATCH, AND IF YOU WATCH THE QB CLOSELY, YOU WILL SEE HE IS SPECIAL. GL

 
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Posted: #14

Florida State has plenty of speed to match up with Oregon in this game.  This is a team that has faced plenty adversity and has found a way to overcome it and win.  Tough to bet against a team like that especially getting 9 points....My money will be on Florida State...GL

 
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Posted: #15
I been at this grind for many years, when a team is getting 9.5 and has not lost in two years. You take the points. Everytime. Was 5 and 1 on oregon  this year,  take the points!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #16
To beat Oregon, you have to win the battle in the trenches and control them a bit on first down.  FSU CAN do that....anyone's guess as to whether they will.  But they have the athletes to do it.  

FSU also has the athletes on offense to punish the Ducks IMO.

statement game

I suppose it's a must win for Oregon as well.  
 
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Posted: #17
Is FSU is very physical and runs the ball, they cover easy. They could easily win this game SU. They are also getting back some defensive players from injury
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by THE_PRESIDENT:

 

MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT YOU CANNOT CONSIDER HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE ON ONE SIDE PERCENTAGE WISE.  THE FIGURES ARE MISLEADING AND SOMETIMES THE PUBLIC WINS.  WHEN ONE FADES THE NUMBERS, YOU ARE FACTORING IN WHAT VEGAS WANTS YOU TO TAKE.  I BOIL OUT THE WATER AND MAKE MY CHOICE, FLA STATE PLAYS UP TO THEIR MATCH, AND IF YOU WATCH THE QB CLOSELY, YOU WILL SEE HE IS SPECIAL. GL

Hey Pres I appreciate your response. A few things and to Oldwiseone also. I don't make plays every week only 27 college plays YTD and I never, never let anyone influence my plays. Not counting the title game which I believe will be Bama and Oregon I will only have 3 bowl plays. See post 12. I'm not going to come up will all kinds of stats which I believe are important but here in my mind are 4 important ones which will determine the outcome here. Fla St avg. per kick return and punt return are 19.6 and 10.5 and Ore is 20.6 and 13.04. Not much difference. There are many other stats I've looked at and here is the difference. Oregon averages close to 2 picks a game, Fla.St less than 1. Winston has thrown 17 picks, Mariota 2. Winston IMO is extremely athletic and will rely on that athleticism instead of using his head when pressured. He won't be able to compensate for his mistakes in this game. IMO I believe there is a bias for all the Fla St love and I can understand that, but no team stays undefeated forever and to oldwiseone whom I respect as a capper, the adversity that Fla St has overcome has been against lesser teams than Oregon. I wish everyone GL on whatever your plays are and Happy New Year
 
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by ______P______:

Statement? It's the fuckking nat'l title, they're in. 
Yes statement
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