WIN4EVER Week 4 Leans and Analysis

Week 4 is usually where I turn the heat up.  I usually tread lightly through first 3 weeks as I get accustom to who's good, who sucks and who I need to watch more of.  Here are games that caught my attention early.  Open to discussion on any.  I usually try to watch 30+ games every Saturday so those who have eyes on other games, I appreciate all insight!

Wyoming -2.5 over EMU - Wyoming is a very solid team this year.  They return a ton on D, they got a very good running back in Hill, Allen is an upgrade at QB.  They were giving Nebraska all they could handle a few weeks ago before the wheels fell off.  Game looks like a blowout but they were very competitive in a tough environment.  I think they blowout EMU out.

USC + 2 over Utah - I'm in PAC 12 country.  USC disappoints perennially but they've had some tough competition.  2 games against 2 top 10 teams.  One being the best team in America.  They are already battle tested.  They returned a ton of talent on the team.  Lost their QB, but pretty well set at all other positions.  Utah breaking in new QB and RB I like the upset here.  USC wins outright.

Ole Miss - 6 over Georgia - Best time to get value on Ole Miss.  2 very tough losses to 2 very good teams.  Georgia is still finding themselves offensively.  Ole Miss is not.  They have one of best QB's in country, they can put points up quick.  Georgia isn't built for a shootout.  Not sure they can keep up here.  They gave up 27 to a bad Mizzou offense, going @Ole Miss this smells like a get right game for Hugh Freeze and Co.

Tulsa -11 over Fresno State (see 11.5 some spots too) - Fresno State to put it lightly sucks.  Tulsa can move the rock all over the field with their spread attack.  Dane Evans line looks a little skewed due to pummeling he took at Ohio State.  They got weapons all over the field, can move and score with pace.  The type of offense I like backing to prevent back door jobs. 

Other leans:

Syracuse +6 (Should UConn get 6?)
Florida +8 (Tennessee has looked like absolute garbage, tons of injuries.  UT seems ripe for an upset.)

Ok State +10 (Baylor getting too much respect here?)
Troy -17.5 (Very good football team this year.  NMSU perennially sucks haven't seen them yet though.

Louisville -23 (Marshall had probably the most gutless performance I witnessed over weekend.  Giving 60+ up to Akron.  Defense looked horrid.  Couldn't tackle.  Good luck against Lamar Jackson.  Petrino has no problem humiliating competition.

Will have some others later and post plays as week goes along.  Good luck this week to all!

I'm liking Oklahoma State also... Baylor has shown nothing really against their creampuff schedule.   OkSt impressed me with the win over Pitt....they have serious speed, only thing that worries is me is that their defense can't stop anyone.  

Agreed, haven't been impressed with them at all so far. Do they have any any dynamic pass catchers? KD Cannon looks good but he's not Corey Coleman. Just doesn't seem like they have the real dynamic athletes at the skill positions they've possessed over the years. I'm not a big Grobe fan either. Seems like they're getting too many points in this one.

In so far:

Wyoming -3 unfortunately when my book released it the public had already pushed it up.  (0.75 units)

Michigan -19 as guys like Urban have alluded to in their threads, Penn State is just crushed with injuries on D.  Jim Harbaugh was once a coach who went for 2 against USC when he was up by 4+ scores late.  He doesn't care about other teams feelings. (0.75 units)

Iowa - 14 over Rutgers.  As you see by my icon I've already seen Rutgers play this year live at Washington.  When they came out of the tunnel I thought someone let a High School team into the building to practice.  Grant is a stud but outside of that they have serious issues at a lot of positions.  Ash will get these guys going in right direction but it's going to be a long year.  We're getting value on the perception that an FCS team beat Iowa.  But NDSU is legit.  (0.75 units).


Not going to play USC as of yet.  I mentioned them above but I have to do some more digging on that.  Very poor hire in Helton.  Rumblings of some internal issues on the team.  Max Browne (opening day starting QB) thinking of transferring after being demoted.  Browne has been terrible though going with Darnold is probably an upgrade.  This could just be a lost year for this team.  Not sure I want to pay to see them. 

My Tulsa line is up to 14.5. Still going to play it just need to see which direction the line will go.  It had a vicious turn after being released. 

Researching will continue to post throughout week and track my plays. 

I like your analysis and leaned the same way on many of these games.

Good luck this week Broham!

Adding:

Temple -27.5 - not always easy laying a big number but this is more of a fade/name your score wager against the worst team in FCS.  Charlotte is just dreadful.  I will continue to wager against them until I see they are up to competing at this level.  (0.50 units)

Southern Miss -10 - this has been covered by a lot on these forums so far as it's a popular game.  Southern Miss is a good team with a lot of offensive fire power.  Not the type of team UTEP can hang with.  Ito Smith and George Payne are forming one of the better 1-2 punches outside of the Big 5 conferences.  (0.75 units)

So far actual plays:

Wyoming -3
Iowa -14 vs. Rutgers (has dropped to -13, -13.5 in some spots.  Thought the line would move other direction but I'll let people think Iowa losing to an FCS team is a drastic blow to them).
Michigan -19
Tulsa -14.5
Temple -27.5
Southern Miss -10

Got my eyes on some other lines too.  Waiting for Washington to come out as Arizona has some key injury questions so line hasn't been released on my book yet.  Mississippi State -22 over UMASS one of the worst teams in America.  Iowa St. -7 vs San Jose State.  Syracuse +4.5 (This line is moving a lot, if it gets to +5 I'll take it.  Was 3.5, jumped up.)  Oklahoma State +8 (probably put this one in a 2 team teaser with a team like Notre Dame to cover from back door beating).

More and more lines are starting to take shape.  Will probably end the week 10-11 plays.  Good luck to all this week.

FBS team* correction above.

Thanks Double! 

WRONG TEAM FAVORED ALERT

Spent a lot of time capping this game and despite the adversity USC is facing with players transferring, they are the supremely talented football team.  Last year UTAH went into the Coliseum as the #3 team as an underdog and everyone wondered why.  The reason is simple, USC is a MUCH more talented football team.  I don't trust Utah's offense to be able to put up enough points in this contest to match USC.  First half could be watered down with field position, but expect Jackson and Smith-Schuster to come alive in this contest and lead them to victory.  24-17 USC wins outright for 0.75 units. 

Gators and Ole Miss

I rather take under in usc game..:)
GL WIN

Bol this week . Like your Iowa and Michigan picks.

On USC as well 

Tulsa 1st half may be the way to go if you're not comfortable laying the two TD's... They started really fast against both SJSU and the FCS team they just beat whose name escapes my mind...I'm a little weary just because they were so bad on the road against OSU, but the weather hurt them as much as the Bucks defense did.

Louisville,  Michigan, and Houston Cougars roll and cover 

Louisville,  Michigan, and Houston Cougars roll and cover   Win 4 ever...Excellent analysis....Bravo

I got then at 3. I'd still play at 4.5. I think they win comfortably. Better skill players in key spots. EMU lost Shaq Vann for season. Look for Hill to go for 180+ tonight. Good luck!

Thank you Deputy. Good luck this weekend.

Good luck to you this weekend!

I laid the -14.5 but it is on my middle range worry if being back doored meter. 14.5 is an odd number. Tulsa can boat race people but backing them a lot last year I know that Evans can get cold and when he does it gets ugly. Need the good Evans to show up. The horrible teams are starting to take shape, teams like Kansas, Charlotte, Idaho, UTEP, etc are being weekly fades until shown otherwise. Good luck his week BWS. Look forward to seeing what your final card shows!

An underrated factor in that Wisconsin game is their kicker is out this weekend.  The guy kicking has never kicked a game in his life.  In a close line like this that could be vital for a cover.  Freshman QB, Clement may not play, special teams issues.  I have to look more at this game later before making a final determination.