Kansas State continues not to get the respect that they deserve despite their 8-1 ATS record over their last 9 games and coach Bill Snyder’s 154-101 (60.4%) ATS record in all games since 1990 (his second season in his first stint with the Wildcats). The Wildcats have played just one bad game all season, a 20-41 loss at TCU, as their other loss was 14-20 loss to Auburn in a game they should have won. Even that TCU loss wasn’t that bad, as the Wildcats averaged 7.0 yards per play and allowed 6.7 yppl in that game. Kansas State is every bit as good as Baylor is from the line of scrimmage and the Wildcats are much, much better in special teams.
Baylor’s strength is obviously their offense, which has averaged 569 yards and 47.8 points in 10 games against FBS opposition. However, this season’s Bears aren’t quite as explosive when you look at it from a yards per play perspective, as they’ve averaged 6.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. While being 0.7 yppl better than average is good, it’s actually not as good as Kansas State’s offense, which has averaged 6.5 yppl against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. If I assume that Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty plays (he’s questionable with concussion symptoms but had a full practice on Thursday and said he expects to play), and throw out his not so good game 1 performance against SMU when he was struggling with an injury, then Baylor’s offense would rate at 1.0 yppl better than average, which is still not quite as good as Kansas State’s +1.1 yppl rating. Baylor actually does have an overall edge offensively because the Bears run a lot more plays than their opponents but that edge is not as significant as the edge that Kansas State has on defense.
Kansas State’s defense has yielded only 5.1 yards per play this season to FBS opponents despite facing a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average FBS defense and while the Wildcats didn’t play well against TCU and Oklahoma, they did hold Auburn’s prolific attack to just 5.0 yppl and 20 points and also kept the very good offenses of Texas Tech and West Virginia in check (just 13 point for Texas Tech and 5.1 yppl and 20 points allowed to West Virginia). The Wildcats’ defense has been a lot better than a Baylor defense that rates at 0.5 yppl better than average, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. The numbers aren’t quite as good if I only use Big 12 games, which excludes the 67 total yards and 1.0 yppl they gave up when they overwhelmed SMU’s pathetic offense in week 1, but even if I include that SMU game I still rate Kansas State’s defense at 0.6 yppl better than the Baylor defense. The Bears have had a particularly tough time defending quality pass attacks, as they allowed an average of 349 passing yards at 8.5 yards per pass play to TCU, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech over the last 7 weeks (they performed well against Oklahoma, but only because the Sooners were without their star WR Shepard). Kansas State’s Jake Waters is a more efficient passer than Baylor’s Bryce Petty, as Waters has averaged 8.3 yards per pass play against FBS opponents that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback (Petty is 2.1 yppp better than average). I just don’t see Baylor’s suspect secondary stopping Waters given that the Bears’ pass defense is 0.6 yppp worse than the average of the teams that Waters has faced this season.
Kansas State has a clear advantage on a yards per play perspective, as the Wildcats are slightly better in that regard offensively and much better defensively. Baylor makes up for that difference by controlling the ball, as they have averaged 17.8 more plays per game than their opponents and are projected to have a 17.7 play advantage in this game. However, Kansas State is one of the best teams in the nation in special teams with a 2.9 yards edge in net punts and a 6.5 yards advantage in net kick off yard line average (their average starting yard line on a kickoff is 30.9 yard line and their opponent’s is the 24.4 yard line), which matters in a game with a lot of kickoffs expected. Baylor is just average in those categories and the field position due to special teams is a hidden advantage for Kansas State. Kansas State is a better overall team and Baylor may be a bit overrated due to being +9 in fumble margin in their 10 FBS games. That positive fumble margin is random and has benefitted Baylor an average of 3.2 points per game – points that aren’t likely to translate going forward. Baylor does have a strong home field advantage, as they are 18-3 ATS at home since 2011, but the Bears have won by more than 7 points just twice in 8 home games since 2011 when not favored by 10 points or more. Baylor is a bully that doesn’t play as well against other good teams while Kansas State is at their best as an underdog (53-28 ATS as a dog under Snyder since 1990, including 3-1 ATS this season). I do have a couple of general situations that favor Baylor but neither is strong enough to keep me off of Kansas State here – although I will make this a smaller rated play than the math merits (Kansas State is a 57% play based solely on the math). I’ll take Kansas State +7 points or more. I also will play Kansas State on the Money Line at (+250 or so).
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*Kansas State (+7 ½) 32 BAYLOR 31
Kansas State Money Line Play at +250
Kansas State continues not to get the respect that they deserve despite their 8-1 ATS record over their last 9 games and coach Bill Snyder’s 154-101 (60.4%) ATS record in all games since 1990 (his second season in his first stint with the Wildcats). The Wildcats have played just one bad game all season, a 20-41 loss at TCU, as their other loss was 14-20 loss to Auburn in a game they should have won. Even that TCU loss wasn’t that bad, as the Wildcats averaged 7.0 yards per play and allowed 6.7 yppl in that game. Kansas State is every bit as good as Baylor is from the line of scrimmage and the Wildcats are much, much better in special teams.
Baylor’s strength is obviously their offense, which has averaged 569 yards and 47.8 points in 10 games against FBS opposition. However, this season’s Bears aren’t quite as explosive when you look at it from a yards per play perspective, as they’ve averaged 6.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. While being 0.7 yppl better than average is good, it’s actually not as good as Kansas State’s offense, which has averaged 6.5 yppl against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. If I assume that Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty plays (he’s questionable with concussion symptoms but had a full practice on Thursday and said he expects to play), and throw out his not so good game 1 performance against SMU when he was struggling with an injury, then Baylor’s offense would rate at 1.0 yppl better than average, which is still not quite as good as Kansas State’s +1.1 yppl rating. Baylor actually does have an overall edge offensively because the Bears run a lot more plays than their opponents but that edge is not as significant as the edge that Kansas State has on defense.
Kansas State’s defense has yielded only 5.1 yards per play this season to FBS opponents despite facing a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average FBS defense and while the Wildcats didn’t play well against TCU and Oklahoma, they did hold Auburn’s prolific attack to just 5.0 yppl and 20 points and also kept the very good offenses of Texas Tech and West Virginia in check (just 13 point for Texas Tech and 5.1 yppl and 20 points allowed to West Virginia). The Wildcats’ defense has been a lot better than a Baylor defense that rates at 0.5 yppl better than average, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. The numbers aren’t quite as good if I only use Big 12 games, which excludes the 67 total yards and 1.0 yppl they gave up when they overwhelmed SMU’s pathetic offense in week 1, but even if I include that SMU game I still rate Kansas State’s defense at 0.6 yppl better than the Baylor defense. The Bears have had a particularly tough time defending quality pass attacks, as they allowed an average of 349 passing yards at 8.5 yards per pass play to TCU, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech over the last 7 weeks (they performed well against Oklahoma, but only because the Sooners were without their star WR Shepard). Kansas State’s Jake Waters is a more efficient passer than Baylor’s Bryce Petty, as Waters has averaged 8.3 yards per pass play against FBS opponents that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback (Petty is 2.1 yppp better than average). I just don’t see Baylor’s suspect secondary stopping Waters given that the Bears’ pass defense is 0.6 yppp worse than the average of the teams that Waters has faced this season.
Kansas State has a clear advantage on a yards per play perspective, as the Wildcats are slightly better in that regard offensively and much better defensively. Baylor makes up for that difference by controlling the ball, as they have averaged 17.8 more plays per game than their opponents and are projected to have a 17.7 play advantage in this game. However, Kansas State is one of the best teams in the nation in special teams with a 2.9 yards edge in net punts and a 6.5 yards advantage in net kick off yard line average (their average starting yard line on a kickoff is 30.9 yard line and their opponent’s is the 24.4 yard line), which matters in a game with a lot of kickoffs expected. Baylor is just average in those categories and the field position due to special teams is a hidden advantage for Kansas State. Kansas State is a better overall team and Baylor may be a bit overrated due to being +9 in fumble margin in their 10 FBS games. That positive fumble margin is random and has benefitted Baylor an average of 3.2 points per game – points that aren’t likely to translate going forward. Baylor does have a strong home field advantage, as they are 18-3 ATS at home since 2011, but the Bears have won by more than 7 points just twice in 8 home games since 2011 when not favored by 10 points or more. Baylor is a bully that doesn’t play as well against other good teams while Kansas State is at their best as an underdog (53-28 ATS as a dog under Snyder since 1990, including 3-1 ATS this season). I do have a couple of general situations that favor Baylor but neither is strong enough to keep me off of Kansas State here – although I will make this a smaller rated play than the math merits (Kansas State is a 57% play based solely on the math). I’ll take Kansas State +7 points or more. I also will play Kansas State on the Money Line at (+250 or so).
The side to choose is all dependent on the health of Petty, and we just don't know that. I think he plays at the beginning but no one is messing around with concussions these days so one solid lick and it is a different Baylor team. Petty plays all game, Baylor is the pick, if not, K State is the side for you. I don't like bets like that, think I will sit this dance out. GLTA
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The side to choose is all dependent on the health of Petty, and we just don't know that. I think he plays at the beginning but no one is messing around with concussions these days so one solid lick and it is a different Baylor team. Petty plays all game, Baylor is the pick, if not, K State is the side for you. I don't like bets like that, think I will sit this dance out. GLTA
KSST still has an outside shot but,need alot of help to go further. Baylor's RB is out and not sure how or good Petty will be after being fubar'd last game. Wildcats are also 7-1 on turf compared to Baylor's 5-4 record.
KSST +8.0
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KSST still has an outside shot but,need alot of help to go further. Baylor's RB is out and not sure how or good Petty will be after being fubar'd last game. Wildcats are also 7-1 on turf compared to Baylor's 5-4 record.
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