Army played close last 2 years with a Navy All-time QB, and this year they are a better team. Think their D is used to stopping Navy QB unlike some teams. Still wish it was like 11 instead of 6, I'll go against by underdog soul and take Navy to win by a TD!
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Army played close last 2 years with a Navy All-time QB, and this year they are a better team. Think their D is used to stopping Navy QB unlike some teams. Still wish it was like 11 instead of 6, I'll go against by underdog soul and take Navy to win by a TD!
Navy (-6 ½) 25 Army 18 I have made a successful habit of going under in this game, as teams that run the triple-option are best equipped to defend the triple-option since they see it in practice every day – even if their defense isn’t good in general. For that reason, the games between the 3 military schools, who all run the option, are 30-7-2 UNDER since 2003. That does include a few years when Army went away from the option but even those games were mostly under. The Army-Navy game has gone under in 10 consecutive years with an average of 36.7 points scored and an average Vegas total of 52.3 points. This trend has become widely known and the total goes down quickly each year after the total is posted, as was the case this year, as the total on this game opened at 52.5 points (and is down to 47). Navy is down to their 3rd string quarterback after Will worth was injured early in last week’s loss to Temple in the AAC Championship game. Sophomore Zach Abey is now in charge of the option and he appears to be a good runner (he’s averaged 9.0 yards on his 23 runs) while his passing numbers have been far worse than Worth’s numbers, as Navy has averaged 9.4 yards per pass play this season while Abey has 93 yards on 16 pass plays (5.8 yppp). Obviously, there is a lot of variance in that small sample size but I used the low end of Navy’s historical range for yards per pass play for Abey in my math model. I also lowered the rushing numbers to the low end of Navy’s historical range, as even though Abey has run well, the running game overall has been worse with him at the helm (compensated for opponent, of course). With those adjustments, my math model favors Navy by 7 ½ points with a total of 48 points – without adjusting for both teams being option teams. That adjustment would put the total at 43 ½ and I’ll still lean under the total – although a lot of the value is gone.
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Navy @ Army Matchup
Navy (-6 ½) 25 Army 18 I have made a successful habit of going under in this game, as teams that run the triple-option are best equipped to defend the triple-option since they see it in practice every day – even if their defense isn’t good in general. For that reason, the games between the 3 military schools, who all run the option, are 30-7-2 UNDER since 2003. That does include a few years when Army went away from the option but even those games were mostly under. The Army-Navy game has gone under in 10 consecutive years with an average of 36.7 points scored and an average Vegas total of 52.3 points. This trend has become widely known and the total goes down quickly each year after the total is posted, as was the case this year, as the total on this game opened at 52.5 points (and is down to 47). Navy is down to their 3rd string quarterback after Will worth was injured early in last week’s loss to Temple in the AAC Championship game. Sophomore Zach Abey is now in charge of the option and he appears to be a good runner (he’s averaged 9.0 yards on his 23 runs) while his passing numbers have been far worse than Worth’s numbers, as Navy has averaged 9.4 yards per pass play this season while Abey has 93 yards on 16 pass plays (5.8 yppp). Obviously, there is a lot of variance in that small sample size but I used the low end of Navy’s historical range for yards per pass play for Abey in my math model. I also lowered the rushing numbers to the low end of Navy’s historical range, as even though Abey has run well, the running game overall has been worse with him at the helm (compensated for opponent, of course). With those adjustments, my math model favors Navy by 7 ½ points with a total of 48 points – without adjusting for both teams being option teams. That adjustment would put the total at 43 ½ and I’ll still lean under the total – although a lot of the value is gone.
If not for the injuries to both of Navy's top 2 dudes, maybe. Navy, really got exposed last week to a team that did their homework. Once you figure out the puzzle, they look confused and lost. I got army +6 and the under.
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If not for the injuries to both of Navy's top 2 dudes, maybe. Navy, really got exposed last week to a team that did their homework. Once you figure out the puzzle, they look confused and lost. I got army +6 and the under.
there seems to be a lot of love for army. sure, they are motivated, sure its a rivalry game, and sure 2 of navy's best players are out. plus army has played very good Navy teams close the last 5 years. but, army is no temple, and its not close. prima facie, for the line to drop 6 points from the open, then sharps and a lot of the public must be on army. this is a no play for me. but, i will not be surprised if Navy wins and covers...GLTA...
LonghornHoosier
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there seems to be a lot of love for army. sure, they are motivated, sure its a rivalry game, and sure 2 of navy's best players are out. plus army has played very good Navy teams close the last 5 years. but, army is no temple, and its not close. prima facie, for the line to drop 6 points from the open, then sharps and a lot of the public must be on army. this is a no play for me. but, i will not be surprised if Navy wins and covers...GLTA...
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