The weak or the strong, who got it going on? You're dead wrong.

by Johnny Lion†  

"The weak or the strong, who got it going on? You're dead wrong." -Notorious B.I.G.

Does Biggie describe your 2010 season? You're not alone.

With Tony Romo going down recently, it really struck a chord with a strategy that I usually stick to but strayed from a bit this year.

One of the fantasy draft commandments that I always preach is, "WAIT ON A QB!"

Well this year I did for the most part, but in a handful of leagues with smaller rosters I jumped at the opportunity of getting Tony Romo and Tom Brady in the 4th and 5th rounds (12 team leagues, always at least 12 teams, anything less is bushy-bush and I'm not talking about Reggie or Michael). Both had loads of weapons and were to be the main beneficiary of high volume passing attacks.

Through the first month of the season I was deep in the Brady Romo business and business was good.

How quickly things change.

The Pats ship Randy Moss off and are satisfied with a calculated "let the other team best themselves" approach which has reduced their passing game to an accessory rather than a luxury. Meanwhile in Dallas their bad start just turned into a bad year losing their 5th game of the year and their golden boy Tony Romo.

When I wasn't snagging TBR, I was grabbing Forte, Addai, Stewart, Boldin, Maclin, Nicks, Harvin, and Garcon. Now for the most part, that's been a solid bunch and the one guy who hasn't been great (Stewart) may take off if DeAngelo is to miss anytime (this week he's a game time decision). So let's say, I held off on a QB like I should have and I had added Maclin, Harvin, or Nicks instead like I did do that in a lot of leagues. Well let's just say, my teams that I did do this are looking a lot better than my early QB situation teams.

Hindsight is 20/20 (obviously). Now we're about to bounce around on a few topics, but stick with me, it will all make sense at the end.

With this in mind, a QB I absolutely love for next year is Sam Bradford. He's been solid as hell this year and has had a carousel at WR most of the year. Hopefully the Rams address this in the offseason or Avery and Clayton can get healthy. Furthermore, he's playing in one of the weakest divisions in all of football and will be on the dominant team in that division for the next decade (sorry fellow 49er fans).

I'm one of the first to get the ball rolling on this future hype monster. What this means is Bradford will likely be a popular pick next year and be overvalued despite how many other "experts" pimp him as a sleeper. Hahahaha, any site that calls him a sleeper next year is a waste of your time. So if Bradford's average draft position next year is before the 7th round, he likely won't be on any of my fantasy teams.

Next year my draft plan will be loading up at RB and WR then getting my QB and TE. Here's a rough sketch of what my draft plan would look like. Keep in mind that I only play in PPR leagues and generally like having stud WRs.

Round 1- Stud RB/WR

Round 2- Stud RB/WR

Round 3- Solid WR

Round 4- PPR Back

Round 5- Up and coming WR/rookie RB/Ryan Mathews

Round 6- Up and coming WR

Round 7- Undervalued vet/sleeper (RB/WR)

Round 8- Undervalued vet/sleeper (RB/WR)

After 8 rounds, I'll want 4 RBs and 4 WRs from the above combinations.

Then after that I'll grab a couple of QBs and TEs. What I'd like to do is grab 1 QB with a great week 1 matchup then just be one of the first to grab next year's version of Michael Vick or Kyle Orton then continue to roll with the punches with next year's equivalent of Kevin Kolb, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Jon Kitna.

You're probably thinking to yourself 2 things; 1) wait a second, I thought this guy hated Ryan Mathews!!!! and/or 2) how can this guy be so sure there will be a bonafide starting fantasy QB that will be undrafted week 1?

Let me address the latter first. The answer is... because there are always QBs there that go undrafted and seemingly come out of nowhere after looking like nasty fantasy turds that no one will touch during the draft season or as we've seen in abundance this year; injuries and you can grab their backups.

Now to the hotter issue, Ryan Mathews. I got so much shit for telling folks not to draft Ryan Mathews with one of their first 3 picks. I'm not going to sit here and be a dick and say I told you so. That's not in my nature. I went to Fresno State, I love Ryan Mathews, but he was going WAY too high. So unless you watched him closely at State, then you likely bought in to the hype. Had one dug deeper they would have realized how injury prone this guy was. He struggled to stay healthy at Fresno State against the likes of New Mexico State and Idaho State, so how was he going to stay healthy in the NFL? Simple logic and it played out as such.

It didn't take a genius to see this, just more than a casual observer. Having the privilege of watching Ryan the last 3 years in my own backyard at my alma mater was quite the luxury that afforded me this insight on Mathews.

So now that we know or rediscovered my 2010 stance on Mathews, let's look at him in 2011. Easy conference, possibly a new coach, an awesome QB, a full team of weapons, and a wiser Mathews with the knowledge of what a full NFL season feels like. Mathews is bad ass and he'll be a bad NFL ass RB. I felt he could be that back if he could stay healthy, which he didn't.

Next year let's assume all of the above plus he stays healthy. Now this fortune is so very incredibly coincidental to a RB I think Mathews resembles the most; Ray Rice. Rice had huge expectations his rookie year that he never lived up to because of injuries and a lack of opportunity. Hmm, sound familiar for Mathews?

Here's the good news, for all non-PYRO/FFP/Covers readers, most sites will tell you to stay away from this guy (unless he has a huge 2nd half of course). For now, let's figure his second half is similar to his first half but with more flashes. Then Mathews will likely be available next year where I thought he should go this year which is around the 5th round.

Every year I focus in on a group of players that is about the third of the size of most others draft list. Next year it will likely be a fifth of the average list with Mathews being an integral grab in the 5th round or so. Now there's a handful of things that we need to see play out in order for us to strike fantasy gold with Mathews, but at least you're aware and can capitalize should this play out the way I think it might.

So now that we're seemingly off subject, you're thinking WTF is this long-winded bastard getting at?

Glad you asked.

If you're in a dynasty league and your team is already on winter vacation like some of mine are, the time is now to get Sam Bradford and Ryan Mathews.

With Bradford likely going higher than I want to take a QB next year, I'll need to get him now in my dynasty leagues if I want a piece of him in 2011.

As for Mathews, his value will never be lower, so trade a one-year wonder guy with through the roof value, ie- Steve Johnson, for a dirt cheap Mathews.

In one of my dynasty leagues where I'm strong at WR, but weak at RB, I made the following trade:

I gave up Hakeem Nicks who's a beast as we know and Anquan Boldin who I love, but is 29 for Sam Bradford, Ryan Mathews, Vincent Jackson, and a 2011 1st round pick.

That's a pretty fair deal, but I could end up winning big time in years to come on this one in Jackson comes back to form and the younger guys turn into the players I think they'll be.

Assess your team and start scheming for next year, it's never too early and dynasty fantasy football is a year long sport.

Stop feeling sorry for yourself and make moves. Future You will thank Present You this time next year and for years to come.