Golden boot award equals the most goals in the tournament.
My local book has the following odds:
James Rodriguez -285 Muller +225 Messi +2000 Robben /persie +5000
Messi and muller lead the tourney with 4 goals each and Rodriguez has 3 but is out of the competition (why is he favored). Robben / persie have 3 with a game to go. Wouldn't wagering on all the plus money players guarantee a profit?
I don't know if I am missing something it just seems odd the favorite according to the odds can't be the high scorer.
Thoughts?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Golden boot award equals the most goals in the tournament.
My local book has the following odds:
James Rodriguez -285 Muller +225 Messi +2000 Robben /persie +5000
Messi and muller lead the tourney with 4 goals each and Rodriguez has 3 but is out of the competition (why is he favored). Robben / persie have 3 with a game to go. Wouldn't wagering on all the plus money players guarantee a profit?
I don't know if I am missing something it just seems odd the favorite according to the odds can't be the high scorer.
Golden boot award equals the most goals in the tournament.
This isn't quite true. If you're considering betting this at this point in the tournament, be sure to pay attention to whether you're betting on the "Golden Boot" or on the player to score the most goals. The difference is that, in the case of a tie for most goals, the Golden Boot goes to the player with the most assists. Mueller already has 3, versus 2 for Rodriguez, so one more goal will win the Boot for Mueller.
If the bet is for most goals (rather than for the Golden Boot), then you need to read the fine print at your sportsbook. Most books simply divide the entire prize pool equally among the tied players. A few instead use an equity model and pay back all bettors their initial bet first, then split the remaining prize pool.
In the former case, a $50 bet on JR at the odds you posted would pay $67/2 if Mueller scores one more goal. You would net a 33% loss. In the equity approach, a bet on JR can't lose you money unless someone makes it to 7 goals.
At this point, betting on anyone other than Rodriguez or Mueller seems like a Hail Mary. If you really want to bet on Messi, then the tiebreaker considerations become complicated.
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Quote Originally Posted by Jamesy7:
Golden boot award equals the most goals in the tournament.
This isn't quite true. If you're considering betting this at this point in the tournament, be sure to pay attention to whether you're betting on the "Golden Boot" or on the player to score the most goals. The difference is that, in the case of a tie for most goals, the Golden Boot goes to the player with the most assists. Mueller already has 3, versus 2 for Rodriguez, so one more goal will win the Boot for Mueller.
If the bet is for most goals (rather than for the Golden Boot), then you need to read the fine print at your sportsbook. Most books simply divide the entire prize pool equally among the tied players. A few instead use an equity model and pay back all bettors their initial bet first, then split the remaining prize pool.
In the former case, a $50 bet on JR at the odds you posted would pay $67/2 if Mueller scores one more goal. You would net a 33% loss. In the equity approach, a bet on JR can't lose you money unless someone makes it to 7 goals.
At this point, betting on anyone other than Rodriguez or Mueller seems like a Hail Mary. If you really want to bet on Messi, then the tiebreaker considerations become complicated.
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