Tmussolani July 13th Picks

If you told me these would be the two finalists when we were at the Quarter Final stage, I would have been very surprised. Credit must be given where it is due, however. Low seems to finally have realized what many of us have known – Germany must play with a 4-5-1 and a recognized striker in Klose. He has done that in the Quarter Final and Semi Final stage and it has worked strikingly well for the Germans. When they play this formation, they are probably the best team in the world. Argentina had a bunch of unheralded defenders and a midfield whose best player was Mascherano. They were supposed to be led by their vaunted attack. Instead, Mascherano has been arguably the best midfielder in the tournament, and their dubious defense goalkeeper tandem have not allowed a goal in their last three matches. On the other hand, their vaunted attack have only scored twice in their last three games. In fact, they have scored one goal or less in four of their last five matches. Germany did not look that great against France, but one thing they did do was completely blunt the French attack. The French were not able to generate anything offensively. This was very similar to how the Argentinians handled Belgium. Belgium also could not get anything going. I don’t want to read too much into Germany’s match against Brazil because, while I’m sure that Germany played a massive part in the match, a lot of that result was also due to the fragile Brazilians completely capitulating. Di Maria is a doubt for Argentina, but I’m going to assume that he will start in arguably the most massive match he will ever play. Even if he is only 60% fit, he is better than what else Argentina can offer. I still have doubts over Argentina’s attack and think it is rather one-dimensional. If Di Maria has the ability to run at defenders, that could make a difference. That being said, I think an uninspiring Argentinian side are going to lose, one way or another, to a German side that are starting to play the correct formation and look very dangerous in doing so. I think the safest pick is to take **Germany to lift the trophy @ 1.675**, but, provided the German’s start with a 4-5-1 with Lahm at right back and Klose as the striker, I’m also going to back them to win within 90 minutes at 2.29. Personally, I think this game is going to have more than two goals in it. Argentina have not conceded yet in the group stage, but they haven’t played a team that will attack them. Holland disappointingly sat back, Belgium the same, and the Swiss just aren’t of the same class. If Germany plays a 4-5-1, they will get at least two goals.