What are the general bettting strategies that you like? Do you look for value (dogs)? Do you take big chalk? Do you seek out favorable matchups? Or wait for certain scenarios (like must win games in the early round)?
I'm interested because I think the World Cup offers some fantastic value to it...
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
What are the general bettting strategies that you like? Do you look for value (dogs)? Do you take big chalk? Do you seek out favorable matchups? Or wait for certain scenarios (like must win games in the early round)?
I'm interested because I think the World Cup offers some fantastic value to it...
I would never lay large chalk in a scenario like this. Large fave opponents will likely 'park the bus' and pray for a draw. If you really like a heavy favorite it is probably best to lay the AH spread.
If you are going to lay some juice, lay it on to advance from group odds. There will be def shoe-ins to advance in some of the groups.
Will def max wager the 3rd place match. I cant remember anytime a 3rd place consolation hasn't gone over the total set. It just seems in any tourney setting the inconsequential match tends to go over as the two squads relax on defense a bit.
As for any strategy in future betting; I look to always bet a favorite as an each way bet (to win/place second) and then look for a moderate favorite in the same bet. Throwing wagers on huge long-shots (40-1 or over) just never seems to pan out in this competition.
All that said, I still haven't looked at futures yet. I was really leaning Belgium (as a moderate shot) last year before all the shake-ups in the lineups.
Leaning Uruguay, Colombia, and Portugal as (possible) my longer-shot futures for now.
Gonna be the jam.
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I would never lay large chalk in a scenario like this. Large fave opponents will likely 'park the bus' and pray for a draw. If you really like a heavy favorite it is probably best to lay the AH spread.
If you are going to lay some juice, lay it on to advance from group odds. There will be def shoe-ins to advance in some of the groups.
Will def max wager the 3rd place match. I cant remember anytime a 3rd place consolation hasn't gone over the total set. It just seems in any tourney setting the inconsequential match tends to go over as the two squads relax on defense a bit.
As for any strategy in future betting; I look to always bet a favorite as an each way bet (to win/place second) and then look for a moderate favorite in the same bet. Throwing wagers on huge long-shots (40-1 or over) just never seems to pan out in this competition.
All that said, I still haven't looked at futures yet. I was really leaning Belgium (as a moderate shot) last year before all the shake-ups in the lineups.
Leaning Uruguay, Colombia, and Portugal as (possible) my longer-shot futures for now.
I agree with all of the prior posts, except perhaps Germany vs. Portugal, which could easily end in a draw.
If you are looking at long-shot futures, I would add the Netherlands side to Portugal, Colombia and Uruguay. They're probably not quite as strong as 2010, but 37:1 is an insult for the last runner-up. When I ran a Monte Carlo sims using various rankings (Elo, FIFA and Castrol), the significantly underrated teams were those four, followed by Spain and Germany.
If you want to bet on total team (or individual) goals, focus on the worst teams. There are a few teams that are much weaker than the field and will give up >4 goals at least once. Not all groups have a team this weak, though, and even the offensive powerhouses will be unlikely to emerge as total goal leaders without a patsy opponent.
Low-scoring draws have ruled the opening games recently. The odds seem to be largely factoring this into totals, but not so much into the odds of draws. Keep an eye on even matchups between defense-minded opponents, especially in the openers.
I also think Brazil is overrated here. I'd love to see them take it, but I sure wouldn't bet on it. They should destroy their group in the opening round, though. Statistically, the home nation has enjoyed a huge advantage in the group round, but not much thereafter.
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I agree with all of the prior posts, except perhaps Germany vs. Portugal, which could easily end in a draw.
If you are looking at long-shot futures, I would add the Netherlands side to Portugal, Colombia and Uruguay. They're probably not quite as strong as 2010, but 37:1 is an insult for the last runner-up. When I ran a Monte Carlo sims using various rankings (Elo, FIFA and Castrol), the significantly underrated teams were those four, followed by Spain and Germany.
If you want to bet on total team (or individual) goals, focus on the worst teams. There are a few teams that are much weaker than the field and will give up >4 goals at least once. Not all groups have a team this weak, though, and even the offensive powerhouses will be unlikely to emerge as total goal leaders without a patsy opponent.
Low-scoring draws have ruled the opening games recently. The odds seem to be largely factoring this into totals, but not so much into the odds of draws. Keep an eye on even matchups between defense-minded opponents, especially in the openers.
I also think Brazil is overrated here. I'd love to see them take it, but I sure wouldn't bet on it. They should destroy their group in the opening round, though. Statistically, the home nation has enjoyed a huge advantage in the group round, but not much thereafter.
I love world cup soccer but the only sport I know enough to cap is college football so I'll be practicing money management and following the lead of Vanzack. It takes a ton of time to cap a sport and if you haven't lived and breathed international soccer than DON'T have an opinion, find a capper who has an established record and strictly follow him. Don't get too up or too down during hot and cold streaks, that is why you practice money management, to weather the cold streaks. Enjoy the great game, never ever bet so much it really hurts to lose. Good advice from lucrative when he mentioned heavy favs will often "park the bus" and play for a draw so that they can get on to the next round.
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I love world cup soccer but the only sport I know enough to cap is college football so I'll be practicing money management and following the lead of Vanzack. It takes a ton of time to cap a sport and if you haven't lived and breathed international soccer than DON'T have an opinion, find a capper who has an established record and strictly follow him. Don't get too up or too down during hot and cold streaks, that is why you practice money management, to weather the cold streaks. Enjoy the great game, never ever bet so much it really hurts to lose. Good advice from lucrative when he mentioned heavy favs will often "park the bus" and play for a draw so that they can get on to the next round.
Pay close attention to the location, some of these games are played in locations with oppressive heat and humidity and instead of being played at night are being played in the afternoon to cater to the huge European TV audience. Games played in Manaus, Natal, Forteran and Recife will be played in oppressive conditions so unders are probable. Teams are going to be wiped out second half and playing defensively.
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Pay close attention to the location, some of these games are played in locations with oppressive heat and humidity and instead of being played at night are being played in the afternoon to cater to the huge European TV audience. Games played in Manaus, Natal, Forteran and Recife will be played in oppressive conditions so unders are probable. Teams are going to be wiped out second half and playing defensively.
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