A third alternative to fade or follow

Stop Looking for the Needle in the Forum Haystack

It's a general statement of common knowledge that you've probably heard before - 95% of sports bettors lose.

I don't know the actual percentage, but I ran a book on the Vegas strip and consulted for and wrote blogs for some of the big offshore houses. I had access to thousands of bettor's files, and it's a fact - the overwhelming majority of sports bettors lose.

Knowing this, why do bettors who are looking for help seek someone to follow/tail rather than someone to fade (play the opposite of his picks)?

Whether you fade or follow, you still have to find someone who is not hitting around 50%, otherwise you're like a hamster running in his wheel - you're not getting anywhere, but it's much easier to find someone who loses than to find someone who wins consistently.

There is a third alternative to fading or following - learn to 'cap your own games.

If you're losing, don't turn to someone else for help; help yourself.

Look at your past experience, learn from it. Study your past plays. Identify mistakes so you don't repeat them. Handicappers spend time looking at a team's performance - how they do as favs, dogs, on the road vs at home, etc. - but not a single minute on their own history. And that's a mistake.

What's YOUR record on Favs? Dogs? Overs? Unders? How may sides did you play? Totals? What's your record on them? Do you know?

How can you expect to be profitable in the very difficult challenge of beating the books if you don't do an accounting of your own play? It's possible, some can maintain profitability without tracking their play, but if you're not winning it's something you want to look into.

Does a successful business keep books to analyze expenses, profits, and areas of loss to improve on? Of course they do.

Think of your sports wagering as a business. Keep books. Analyze your wins and losses. Make adjustments.

A database of your plays is just as valuable, if not more so, than the data on the team you're thinking about betting on tonight.

Try tracking your play and incorporating what you learn into your handicapping. You should see a marked improvement in your bottom line.

And if you still can't see a profit, then turn to Forum Land.

But look for a fade - odds are they're much easier to find.

A final word of advice for new bettors - don't bet too many games.

Some bettors can wager on a lot of games each day and maintain a profitable win percentage, but they are very rare.

My biggest disadvantage running a book was that I HAD to put up a line on every game.

Your advantage, as a bettor, is you can pick and choose your spots.

The more games you bet, the more the odds revert back to the house.

Books love guys who come in on NFL Sunday and bet every game on the board, sides and totals.

They have a name for people who bet on ten or more bets in any sport on any day.

They call them "valued customers."

Error, too late to edit. Should read:

They have a name for people who bet on ten or more games in any sport on any day.

Bet futures and hedge as line shifts?

VAlways, I use artificial intelligence to capitalize on outliers.  I don't start fading a bettor until they reach 38 wins, or losses in a row.

For the rooks . This is solid advice. I follow the 3rd alternative. Keep a direct record of all your bets and do a thorough audit. I never fade and never follow. I look at the forums for entertainment. There are some solid cappers here but not like they used to be. Remember the red flag plays? Lol probably not for most here.