So, I'm just starting out and curious about this from a statistical standpoint
I've heard that it's most beneficial to bet only a few games every day.
But, if I'm someone whose betting 1-2 games each day, and over the course of 100 days, I've bet on a total of 100-200 games and have a win % of, say, 15% (pretty solid)....
What's the difference between that, and someone who goes crazy betting 20 games each day, and afte 1-2 months, has the same amount of total bets as the above individual, with an equal win%?
Is it any more/less likely that the 2nd individuals results are "lucky" compared with the first individual? I guess I'm trying to suss out what the principle behind betting only a few bets each day is
Thanks
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
So, I'm just starting out and curious about this from a statistical standpoint
I've heard that it's most beneficial to bet only a few games every day.
But, if I'm someone whose betting 1-2 games each day, and over the course of 100 days, I've bet on a total of 100-200 games and have a win % of, say, 15% (pretty solid)....
What's the difference between that, and someone who goes crazy betting 20 games each day, and afte 1-2 months, has the same amount of total bets as the above individual, with an equal win%?
Is it any more/less likely that the 2nd individuals results are "lucky" compared with the first individual? I guess I'm trying to suss out what the principle behind betting only a few bets each day is
Okay, cool - that's kinda what I was thinking.. that makes sense.
So, how do I judge what the "cutoff" point should be for whether a particular game is worth being bet on.
Besides just saying, "Well I feel like this game is solid".... are there general parameters that successful gamblers setup with themselves, that allow them to have a solid, objective, understanding of when a game crosses the threshold from "not worth of being bet on" to "Worthy of being bet on"
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Okay, cool - that's kinda what I was thinking.. that makes sense.
So, how do I judge what the "cutoff" point should be for whether a particular game is worth being bet on.
Besides just saying, "Well I feel like this game is solid".... are there general parameters that successful gamblers setup with themselves, that allow them to have a solid, objective, understanding of when a game crosses the threshold from "not worth of being bet on" to "Worthy of being bet on"
Okay, cool - that's kinda what I was thinking.. that makes sense.
So, how do I judge what the "cutoff" point should be for whether a particular game is worth being bet on.
Besides just saying, "Well I feel like this game is solid".... are there general parameters that successful gamblers setup with themselves, that allow them to have a solid, objective, understanding of when a game crosses the threshold from "not worth of being bet on" to "Worthy of being bet on"
Each person and their 'parameters' are going to be different. By 'just starting out' do you mean brand new to sports betting? If so, be careful if you haven't 'paper bet' or are not really solid on your parameters yet. But, to me, generally, if a play is a play---then it is a play (by whatever parameters you have set up). Don't just play to be playing.
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Quote Originally Posted by gtrain:
Okay, cool - that's kinda what I was thinking.. that makes sense.
So, how do I judge what the "cutoff" point should be for whether a particular game is worth being bet on.
Besides just saying, "Well I feel like this game is solid".... are there general parameters that successful gamblers setup with themselves, that allow them to have a solid, objective, understanding of when a game crosses the threshold from "not worth of being bet on" to "Worthy of being bet on"
Each person and their 'parameters' are going to be different. By 'just starting out' do you mean brand new to sports betting? If so, be careful if you haven't 'paper bet' or are not really solid on your parameters yet. But, to me, generally, if a play is a play---then it is a play (by whatever parameters you have set up). Don't just play to be playing.
Besides just saying, "Well I feel like this game is solid".... are there general parameters that successful gamblers setup with themselves, that allow them to have a solid, objective, understanding of when a game crosses the threshold from "not worth of being bet on" to "Worthy of being bet on"
Just by asking this question, you are miles ahead of 85% of everyone on here and sports bettors in general. I'm not trying to be funny or cute... YES!!! set line thresholds .. WHY??? you ask,,,, because to set them you actually have to set your own line to begin with, not what you think the books will set it at,,, but what your own personal line is. Ex.. 20% difference between your line and the current available line.. bang! auto one unit wager, 33% dif.. boom 1.5 or 2 unit,, or whatever you set it as for yourself. How you set your line is the big variable between everyone that wagers on sports, but IMO, it has to be heavily,,, HEAVILY weighed toward statistical analysis. Why you ask again,, because you can adjust your mathematical formula as you go to what works and doesn't. Much tougher to adjust your gut feelings
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Quote Originally Posted by gtrain:
Besides just saying, "Well I feel like this game is solid".... are there general parameters that successful gamblers setup with themselves, that allow them to have a solid, objective, understanding of when a game crosses the threshold from "not worth of being bet on" to "Worthy of being bet on"
Just by asking this question, you are miles ahead of 85% of everyone on here and sports bettors in general. I'm not trying to be funny or cute... YES!!! set line thresholds .. WHY??? you ask,,,, because to set them you actually have to set your own line to begin with, not what you think the books will set it at,,, but what your own personal line is. Ex.. 20% difference between your line and the current available line.. bang! auto one unit wager, 33% dif.. boom 1.5 or 2 unit,, or whatever you set it as for yourself. How you set your line is the big variable between everyone that wagers on sports, but IMO, it has to be heavily,,, HEAVILY weighed toward statistical analysis. Why you ask again,, because you can adjust your mathematical formula as you go to what works and doesn't. Much tougher to adjust your gut feelings
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