I'm glad i wasn't that only one that noticed how many threads there are on hedging in this forum since everyone likes to play parlays so much. The ones who do parlays a lot don't last very long on here, but there will inevitably be someone to take their place.
I read the first page of that thread you posted, and one of the guys didn't seem to understand how dumb it is to "hedge and guarantee himself money," when he knew I was going to hedge the last game.
I think people hedge because when they put in the original bet, they're just messing around on a small amount to win a big one, and when you see the possibility of getting half or whatever of a big amount, they realize they should take some money while it's there. Even if they still like the pick. Yeah, it costs them money, but the thought of getting a little money back I understand, which is why people ask about it so dammm much.
It's a simple concept though. The hedge amount should be what you are willing to risk on the last game. Often the last game is the ML on an underdog, which makes it the crazy payout, so people need to realize they have to pay that huge spread on the favorite's ML to properly hedge.
If it's smaller parlay like a 4 game, and you're trying to hedge after the 3rd game, yeah that's freakin retarded because it's not a huge payout, so you never should have bet it in the first place.
I typically agree that if you were going to hedge the game straight up with the same odds, that you never should have put the last game in there in the first place.
What one of the guys mentioned above in this thread are different kind of hedges though.
The futures bet hedge is completely different than a parlay hedge. If you get close enough to a future win with decent odds, I don't blame people for taking it. There was no choice there about picking 3 games instead of 4. But again, it's a simple concept and basic math, so there shouldn't be so many questions on it.
The second scenario is when the odds change, and they're in your favor. When that original thread was made 8 years ago, live betting wasn't as common as it is now. Back then, pretty much the only time you could hedge would be at halftime. Now, you can bet after every commercial break.
So if you've got a parlay, or even a straight bet and the odds are really in your favor, that's a decent situation. For example, if you've got a spread of +3 and your team is winning by 14 at halftime, you can "hedge" and have a realistic chance at middling both lines.
Or if it's a money line like in baseball, and you've got a 3-4 run lead on a pickem, and have the opportunity to live line hedge, you've given yourself a little value. You can try and take a RL at even money probably at +3.5/+4 for the other team, or you can get like +700 on the other team. So you might be able to get 6-1 or 7-1 on your hedge, which isn't bad at all. For example, you've got 1000 riding on Team A to win, and you can risk 100 on Team B to hedge it for 700.
I've noticed that when the odds are like +700 live though, the likelihood of you losing is pretty slim, so usually I just pass it over.
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