To date the Atlantic has had five named storms, which is not all that far off "normal" activity, as measured by climatological averages from 1991 to 2020. Normally, by now, the Atlantic would have recorded eight tropical storms and hurricanes that were given names by the National Hurricane Center.
FURTHER READING We’re about to enter the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season The disparity is more significant when we look at a metric for the duration and intensity of storms, known as Accumulated Cyclone Energy. By this more telling measurement, the 2022 season has a value of 29.6, which is less than half of the normal value through Saturday, 60.3.
Perhaps what is most striking about this season is that we are now at the absolute peak of hurricane season, and there is simply nothing happening. Although the Atlantic season begins on June 1, it starts slowly, with maybe a storm here or there in June, and often a quiet July before the deep tropics get rolling in August. Typically about half of all activity occurs in the 14 weeks prior to September 10, and then in a mad, headlong rush the vast majority of the remaining storms spin up before the end of October.
While it is still entirely possible that the Atlantic basin—which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea—produces a madcap finish, we're just not seeing any signs of it right now. There are no active systems at the moment, and the National Hurricane Center is tracking just one tropical wave that will move off the African coast into the Atlantic Ocean in the coming days. It has a relatively low chance of development, and none of the global models anticipate much from the system. Our best global models show about a 20 to 30 percent chance of a tropical depression developing anywhere in the Atlantic during the next 10 days.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Atlantic has been dead quiet this year.
This time is peak for development...
To date the Atlantic has had five named storms, which is not all that far off "normal" activity, as measured by climatological averages from 1991 to 2020. Normally, by now, the Atlantic would have recorded eight tropical storms and hurricanes that were given names by the National Hurricane Center.
FURTHER READING We’re about to enter the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season The disparity is more significant when we look at a metric for the duration and intensity of storms, known as Accumulated Cyclone Energy. By this more telling measurement, the 2022 season has a value of 29.6, which is less than half of the normal value through Saturday, 60.3.
Perhaps what is most striking about this season is that we are now at the absolute peak of hurricane season, and there is simply nothing happening. Although the Atlantic season begins on June 1, it starts slowly, with maybe a storm here or there in June, and often a quiet July before the deep tropics get rolling in August. Typically about half of all activity occurs in the 14 weeks prior to September 10, and then in a mad, headlong rush the vast majority of the remaining storms spin up before the end of October.
While it is still entirely possible that the Atlantic basin—which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea—produces a madcap finish, we're just not seeing any signs of it right now. There are no active systems at the moment, and the National Hurricane Center is tracking just one tropical wave that will move off the African coast into the Atlantic Ocean in the coming days. It has a relatively low chance of development, and none of the global models anticipate much from the system. Our best global models show about a 20 to 30 percent chance of a tropical depression developing anywhere in the Atlantic during the next 10 days.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later tonight into tomorrow. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable, and any development of this wave should be slow to occur while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean through the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Papin
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 11 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later tonight into tomorrow. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable, and any development of this wave should be slow to occur while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean through the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Was just talking about this with some family. The Carolinas are overdue for a big hurricane. It's been quite a few years since we've had a major one. This year seems unusually quiet. Would guess that the US will get slammed over the next 5 years or so - Mother Nature always wins in the end, regardless of what we do.
God is great, beer is good, and people are crazy.
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Was just talking about this with some family. The Carolinas are overdue for a big hurricane. It's been quite a few years since we've had a major one. This year seems unusually quiet. Would guess that the US will get slammed over the next 5 years or so - Mother Nature always wins in the end, regardless of what we do.
There should be plenty of hurricanes in an LA NINA year and the fact we have had back to back La Nina years the two previous years, it was expected to have a busy hurricane year. To my understanding, this is the first recorded triple La Nina year and I have a hypothesis as to why there were fewer hurricanes.
It has to do with how far along are we on the latest solar cycle in its 11-11.5 yr cycle of flipping its magnetic field and therefore inciting hyper activity of solar flares released off of the surface of the sun which is typically to increase in the 8th - 9th year of a solar cycle, and increasing even more intensely in the final 10th-11th year. When more solar impulses are sent, the reaction in the upper (lowest layer of the atmosphere) Troposphere is to have more dissipation of water vapour forming massive cloud systems...hence, it COULD impair hurricane formation but not halt it. Because the observations of less cloud formation are consistently typical of the final 2-4 yrs of a peak solar cycle (years 8-11) it might explain, why there were less this year as the last solar cycle peak #24 peaking at the end of 2013 and into 2014....which would put this year 2022 year 9 moving into year 10 toward the end of this fall
Support > https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264387085_The_sun-hurricane_connection_Diagnosing_the_solar_impacts_on_hurricane_frequency_over_the_North_Atlantic_basin_using_a_space-time_model
Researchers believe that increased solar activity, especially sunspots, can warm the upper layer of Earth's atmosphere, creating more stable conditions and in turn decreasing hurricane activity.Sept 5, 2022
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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I have a meteorology background.....
There should be plenty of hurricanes in an LA NINA year and the fact we have had back to back La Nina years the two previous years, it was expected to have a busy hurricane year. To my understanding, this is the first recorded triple La Nina year and I have a hypothesis as to why there were fewer hurricanes.
It has to do with how far along are we on the latest solar cycle in its 11-11.5 yr cycle of flipping its magnetic field and therefore inciting hyper activity of solar flares released off of the surface of the sun which is typically to increase in the 8th - 9th year of a solar cycle, and increasing even more intensely in the final 10th-11th year. When more solar impulses are sent, the reaction in the upper (lowest layer of the atmosphere) Troposphere is to have more dissipation of water vapour forming massive cloud systems...hence, it COULD impair hurricane formation but not halt it. Because the observations of less cloud formation are consistently typical of the final 2-4 yrs of a peak solar cycle (years 8-11) it might explain, why there were less this year as the last solar cycle peak #24 peaking at the end of 2013 and into 2014....which would put this year 2022 year 9 moving into year 10 toward the end of this fall
Support > https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264387085_The_sun-hurricane_connection_Diagnosing_the_solar_impacts_on_hurricane_frequency_over_the_North_Atlantic_basin_using_a_space-time_model
Researchers believe that increased solar activity, especially sunspots, can warm the upper layer of Earth's atmosphere, creating more stable conditions and in turn decreasing hurricane activity.Sept 5, 2022
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