This story was put up on the front page of MSN about 2 hours after Cruz conceded. No one can construct an article that fast; this baby has been in the can ready to roll out for weeks.
To call this guy's statistics-based-rationale a "pseudoscience" maybe the overstatement of the century:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/yes-it%e2%80%99s-early-but-donald-trump-would-have-uphill-battle-against-hillary-clinton/ar-BBsCzJq?li=BBnbcA1
Good lord. The author is obviously not a sports gambler or competent speculator of any kind. "Trump could be in for a decisive loss according to early polling"....are you kidding?
Here is why that entire article is hogwash, and why the NY Times should put a "stop payment" on the author's paycheck:
1) Turnout will dictate who wins this election. Guess what?....the silent majority does not like Hillary. Her turnout numbers will be dramatically lower than those of Obama's. On the flip side, the turnout for Trump is poised to be record setting.
2) The republican establishment does not like Trump. Again, guess what? Conservatives, republicans, and undecideds hate politicians. No support from the republican establishment does not hurt Trump one bit; in fact it colors the beltway republicans in a horribly negative way. So negative, that Trump will end up getting full GOP support.
3) The author states that the demographic of 18-29 will go against Trump at a huge clip. Not so fast my friend......most of this age group on the democratic side came out for Bernie in droves. You talk about a rigged system? Bernie wins state after state and manages to lose delegates. What a sheep show....good luck getting all of his supporters on board with Clinton. Democratic youth is tired of traditional politics, and will pack it in on election day.....Hillary will be lucky to split that demographic.
4) So, what does that leave us? Hillary will be strong in liberal elite circles, and among minorities. Well, lib elites carry sway in NYC, LA, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle. It will be up to minority turnout to deliver Florida and Ohio. Trump will carry every red state that Romney did, and his numbers in Florida scare the pisss out of the Clinton machine. Depending on his pick for VP, Ohio is very much in play.
5) 60+ percent of republicans and conservatives are "afraid" of Trump? Really.......let me be the first to tell you that the "fear" of Trump takes a backseat to their "hatred" of Clinton. All republicans will vote for Trump.
Of course, anything can happen at the GOP convention, but a movement against Trump right now is political suicide. I will admit, I had Trump out of this thing by last Christmas, but he has led wire-to-wire.
Trump is the anti-Obama. Obama has angered a lot of American citizens....the election of Trump looks to be the reaction to 8 years of liberal policy. When the pendulum swings too far one way, it comes back the other way.
The thing that Americans should be concerned with is how polarizing our leaders have become. A president, and government in general, should function as a good umpire; you don't even know they are there.
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