Gents,
Adding a thread in general topics to outline some of my thoughts and processes for upcoming picks in a litany of sports. Floundering recreational bettor for years, mentored with a professional and have been profitable in MOST (baseball is a hard nut to crack) sports over the last 18 months. I do not claim to be brilliant, sharp, or better than anyone else, but just aim to profitable and share what I have learned.
Full disclaimer, I do not win the magical 52.423581% of my games. I am ok with my 48.34 %, which turns a profit. If losing bothers you, perhaps another thread cause I lose a lot. All my studies mandate flawless bankroll management, discipline, and emotional neutrality.
For me, the key to turning a profit at less than 50 % win percentage, is playing money line dogs (and dogs in general). So I play dogs, quite abundantly, with careful regard. Potential plays (in all sports) are identified by finding value between my stat model line and the line offered by the book. From there several situational angles are considered with more weight depending on sport:
League Trends
https://www.covers.com/sport/basketball/ncaab/league-trends/seasontodate (example in case not familiar....all sports on covers have this). Mostly look at seasonal and ignore the coveted this team wins 100 % of the time on Tuesday's after Haley's comet passes Jupiter if it is higher than 80 degrees in Phoenix.
Form
NCAAM, NBA, NHL, Soccer - Last 5. NFL, NCAAF - Last 4
Injuries
All sports - Check beat writers for teams on twitter to get info early / fast.
Home / Away
Heavily weighted in soccer. Fairly weighted in NCAAM in that a potential play should have proven road / home success. Considered in other sports in accordance with league trends.
Common Opponents (college sports), Schedule (back to back / 3 in 4 nights), Motivation (look ahead / revenge), and a few others including reading unbiased matchup previews from multiple sources.
Finally, I look at line movement and try to gauge a sense of what the public is doing. Lots of talk on the accuracy of this, but it has served me well and I do not deviate from my teachings. But in a nutshell, if at least 3 review sites have consensus on a team being a public play I will take note. If split, I may ignore. As to line movement, I base decisions off the Pinnacle line. Is the line moving with me, against me, or is it neutral. Line movement will never make a play in and of itself, but it will eliminate a play.
My hope is this may help those starting, struggling, or lost as I was 18 months ago. My request is for us all to remain positive. This is not the way or a better way, it is just the lens I use. Take it for what it is worth and BOL.