Serious question and I hope everyone answers..

Why does it seem like that it is inevitable that you will lose more than win when it comes to sports gambling?

As a sports bettor I win just a little more than I lose - so that might be contradicting what I just said. It just seems like sports gambling is set up for you to fail. No matter how hard do your "research."

I don't know how Billy Walters does what he does. And I remember watching a Youtube video where they talked to 4 successful sports bettors and one of them JUST BET on the quarter lines and the half lines in the NBA and he wouldn't reveal his secret.

Some people learn to fade the public, but you'll find out real quick that it doesn't always work.

Some people (like myself) over think things and then I don't place a bet that ends up winning! Smh.

It's crazy to me how certain games literally come down to the last play, last free throw or last drive etc. How can the books be so right? I've heard they use computers, algorithms, bell curves, etc.

But man something seems fishy. Look at the Ravens-Texans OU tonight? It was 38.5. The game finished 23-16. If that wouldn't have been the score, it would have been 31-7. 24-14. etc.

I don't know how a bell curve would predict that.

What's the deal? I see posts all the time on here about people losing money like crazy. And they just keep betting and betting and losing. I never chase my losses. Maybe they do.

Just seems we're all set up to fail and lose.

 

Majority of gamblers are supposed to lose money.  If every gamble is profitable, sportbooks would cease to exist. 

most games are a coin flip essentially. Paying the juice on 500 coin flips adds up. You could break even 250-250 and still be down a ton. Say every one of those bets was for 100$ and the juice was the standard 10% you would be down 2500 even though you are batting .500. Also, many people bet on heavy juiced games, parlays, teasers, etc and all of those play to the houses advantage.

Messier is bang on!  And I would also add about the tv poker pros that most of them were making gobs of money from the website sponsors they had on their shirts, not their winnings at the table.

If you bet $110 to win $100, are you a sharp bettor???

Sounds kinda STUPID to me???  Even with a 50-50 chance you might win.  2 teams is always 50-50 regardless of the pts., right?

Its not even the gambling part of it for most of us. I think my downfall always is not learning to accept losses as easily and appreciate wins. I can win for 3-4 weeks, but then I bad week makes me change my habits trying to regain what I lost and makes it a disaster. I'm sure Im not the only one that does this. Point being even if you can hit 55-57% if you try to recoup when you lose you will still eventually lose it all. It's very hard to bet the same unit over and over again for me.

i use a simulation computer simulation that gives me free picks every day. They are darn good, . My days of crunching numbers ans watching games are gone.

Timing and Discipline 

I don’t give a sh*t who you are, 99.5% of people who bet sports end up down. Some lose more than others but that juice slowly kills you. A lot of people are truly addicted to the adrenaline rush of it, hell I banned myself from the local casino bc I couldn’t stop spending every dime in my pocket ugh. Yeah banning yourself if a pathetic girl move and shows no self control, don’t let me hold you half ounce of powder either hahaha ;) 

You can analyze this sh!t to death but the bottom line is that IT IS NOT YOU AGAINST THE BOOKS.

Always has been and always will be YOU AGAINST YOURSELF.

I agree with the majority of the posters is the juice.

Compound a 5% vig against you in a 50-50 game and over about 1000 bets there is nothing left.

That's why Vegas gives comps. You may have taken money from them short term but they are inviting you back not because they like you but they want to increase the number of bets you make.

Also, there is such a thing as the "Wisdom of the Crowds"(WOC). The majority is smarter than even an expert. Wikipedia search this.

WOC is also why about 95% of fund managers cannot beat a simple buy and hold strategy on the S&P 500.

Vig doesn't help matters, but a lot of people would lose money even if they got +110 instead of -110 because they bet too big.

 

Overconfidence is the killer.

They did this study with PHD's given a trading system with a 60% accuracy guaranteed. The data in the future that was given to them was old but the PHD's didnt know that. So, the system was guaranteed even in the "future" to be 60% accurate.

 

They all went bust because of lack of money management. Markets or sports really wouldnt matter the same principle applies.

 

You have to win 55.1 percent of the time to make anything ever in an endless coin flip the handle will crush any profit start with this the House makes money regardless the more playas bet more is absorbed by the handle 

same here man wont like 5.2k last month then i feel like my unit should be 1000 a game, one loss makes it so shot lol. all about unit size i guess. makes u wana chase hard losing big