Serious question and I hope everyone answers..

Question

Why does it seem like that it is inevitable that you will lose more than win when it comes to sports gambling?

As a sports bettor I win just a little more than I lose - so that might be contradicting what I just said. It just seems like sports gambling is set up for you to fail. No matter how hard do your "research."

I don't know how Billy Walters does what he does. And I remember watching a Youtube video where they talked to 4 successful sports bettors and one of them JUST BET on the quarter lines and the half lines in the NBA and he wouldn't reveal his secret.

Some people learn to fade the public, but you'll find out real quick that it doesn't always work.

Some people (like myself) over think things and then I don't place a bet that ends up winning! Smh.

It's crazy to me how certain games literally come down to the last play, last free throw or last drive etc. How can the books be so right? I've heard they use computers, algorithms, bell curves, etc.

But man something seems fishy. Look at the Ravens-Texans OU tonight? It was 38.5. The game finished 23-16. If that wouldn't have been the score, it would have been 31-7. 24-14. etc.

I don't know how a bell curve would predict that.

What's the deal? I see posts all the time on here about people losing money like crazy. And they just keep betting and betting and losing. I never chase my losses. Maybe they do.

Just seems we're all set up to fail and lose.

getem474 · Answer

Why does it seem like that it is inevitable that you will lose more than win when it comes to sports gambling?

As a sports bettor I win just a little more than I lose - so that might be contradicting what I just said. It just seems like sports gambling is set up for you to fail. No matter how hard do your "research."

I don't know how Billy Walters does what he does. And I remember watching a Youtube video where they talked to 4 successful sports bettors and one of them JUST BET on the quarter lines and the half lines in the NBA and he wouldn't reveal his secret.

Some people learn to fade the public, but you'll find out real quick that it doesn't always work.

Some people (like myself) over think things and then I don't place a bet that ends up winning! Smh.

It's crazy to me how certain games literally come down to the last play, last free throw or last drive etc. How can the books be so right? I've heard they use computers, algorithms, bell curves, etc.

But man something seems fishy. Look at the Ravens-Texans OU tonight? It was 38.5. The game finished 23-16. If that wouldn't have been the score, it would have been 31-7. 24-14. etc.

I don't know how a bell curve would predict that.

What's the deal? I see posts all the time on here about people losing money like crazy. And they just keep betting and betting and losing. I never chase my losses. Maybe they do.

Just seems we're all set up to fail and lose.

thirdperson · Answer

Majority of gamblers are supposed to lose money.  If every gamble is profitable, sportbooks would cease to exist.

Messier-11 · Answer

most games are a coin flip essentially. Paying the juice on 500 coin flips adds up. You could break even 250-250 and still be down a ton. Say every one of those bets was for 100$ and the juice was the standard 10% you would be down 2500 even though you are batting .500. Also, many people bet on heavy juiced games, parlays, teasers, etc and all of those play to the houses advantage.

But above all imo is that most gamblers are greedy and no score is never big enough. I just won 10,000 last month betting 250 a game but now I feel like I'm untouchable and it will continue so I start betting 1000 a game and a few losses in a row occur and next thing you know you are chasing your few k losses on a midnight hawaii game for 3k. Staying disciplined is half the battle. Most don't have it in them. Best bet is to just gamble for entertainment purposes. Barely anyone makes a living on this stuff. Walters is going to jail. 75% of the tv poker pros we watched on tv over the years are broke now. Not being a degenerate and a gambler at the same time is a tough feat. Good luck..

dcp1985 · Answer

Messier is bang on! And I would also add about the tv poker pros that most of them were making gobs of money from the website sponsors they had on their shirts, not their winnings at the table.

Also, to paraphrase a good quote from the movie Rounders, "almost nobody remembers the big pots they win, but they can remember every single detail about the incredible bad beats they get."

It's easy to pick out one game as anecdotal evidence that Vegas is always wins by the hook, or by a point...but for every game like that there is also a game like the Panthers and Jets where the o/u was 39.5 and they scored 62.

It's a grind...stay humble and focused.

Jr315 · Answer

If you bet $110 to win $100, are you a sharp bettor???Sounds kinda STUPID to me???  Even with a 50-50 chance you might win.  2 teams is always 50-50 regardless of the pts., right?

MarginofSafety · Answer

Its not even the gambling part of it for most of us. I think my downfall always is not learning to accept losses as easily and appreciate wins. I can win for 3-4 weeks, but then I bad week makes me change my habits trying to regain what I lost and makes it a disaster. I&#x27;m sure Im not the only one that does this. Point being even if you can hit 55-57% if you try to recoup when you lose you will still eventually lose it all. It&#x27;s very hard to bet the same unit over and over again for me.

searchwarrant · Answer

i use a simulation computer simulation that gives me free picks every day. They are darn good, . My days of crunching numbers ans watching games are gone.

Way to win a fight with vegas computers is with another computer. Least you have a chance.

VanDutch · Answer

Timing and Discipline sounds easy .

Hugh_Jorgan · Answer

The old Madden &#x27;17 trick.I like it

Matt3174 · Answer

I don&#x2019;t give a sh*t who you are, 99.5% of people who bet sports end up down. Some lose more than others but that juice slowly kills you. A lot of people are truly addicted to the adrenaline rush of it, hell I banned myself from the local casino bc I couldn&#x2019;t stop spending every dime in my pocket ugh. Yeah banning yourself if a pathetic girl move and shows no self control, don&#x2019;t let me hold you half ounce of powder either hahaha ;) You have to play just for fun and just throw the same amount on every game. Don&#x2019;t bet just bc it&#x2019;s a big game or on tv either. Put free money to the side that you can afford to lose, I don&#x2019;t get people that can&#x2019;t pay the book, F that stress!  Pick a strategy and never change it, I personally only play games when the line moves opposite of the public. Kills me on NFL but hit on college b-ball and fball. Hell I love the horses but have no clue so bet the same EVERY time, 4-5 exacta and 3-5-7 trifecta hahaha. Most important, F the &#x201C;experts&#x201D; haha!

TheGoldenGoose · Answer

You can analyze this sh!t to death but the bottom line is that IT IS NOT YOU AGAINST THE BOOKS.Always has been and always will be YOU AGAINST YOURSELF.

Qwan61 · Answer

I agree with the majority of the posters is the juice.

Compound a 5% vig against you in a 50-50 game and over about 1000 bets there is nothing left.

That's why Vegas gives comps. You may have taken money from them short term but they are inviting you back not because they like you but they want to increase the number of bets you make.

Also, there is such a thing as the "Wisdom of the Crowds"(WOC). The majority is smarter than even an expert. Wikipedia search this.

WOC is also why about 95% of fund managers cannot beat a simple buy and hold strategy on the S&P 500.

thorpe · Answer

Vig doesn&#x27;t help matters, but a lot of people would lose money even if they got &#x2B;110 instead of -110 because they bet too big.No matter how good you are picking games, once every several months you will have a cold streak, and if you are betting too big and/or chasing losses, your roll will be crippled.You can win 60% of your bets and still have 1% chance to lose 8 out of 10 games. (5% if you win 50%)If you bet 10% of your bankroll per bet, you just lost half of it.  One of the biggest edges the book has is a virtually unlimited bankroll.

Qwan61 · Answer

&#xA; &#xA;Overconfidence is the killer.&#xA;They did this study with PHD&#x27;s given a trading system with a 60% accuracy guaranteed. The data in the future that was given to them was old but the PHD&#x27;s didnt know that. So, the system was guaranteed even in the "future" to be 60% accurate.&#xA; &#xA;They all went bust because of lack of money management. Markets or sports really wouldnt matter the same principle applies.

nature1970 · Answer

You have to win 55.1 percent of the time to make anything ever in an endless coin flip the handle will crush any profit start with this the House makes money regardless the more playas bet more is absorbed by the handle

EuroPro · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Messier-11]  most games are a coin flip essentially. Paying the juice on 500 coin flips adds up. You could break even 250-250 and still be down a ton. Say every one of those bets was for 100$ and the juice was the standard 10% you would be down 2500 even though you are batting .500. Also, many people bet on heavy juiced games, parlays, teasers, etc and all of those play to the houses advantage.But above all imo is that most gamblers are greedy and no score is never big enough. I just won 10,000 last month betting 250 a game but now I feel like I&#x27;m untouchable and it will continue so I start betting 1000 a game and a few losses in a row occur and next thing you know you are chasing your few k losses on a midnight hawaii game for 3k. Staying disciplined is half the battle. Most don&#x27;t have it in them. Best bet is to just gamble for entertainment purposes. Barely anyone makes a living on this stuff. Walters is going to jail. 75% of the tv poker pros we watched on tv over the years are broke now. Not being a degenerate and a gambler at the same time is a tough feat. Good luck..  [/Quote]same here man wont like 5.2k last month then i feel like my unit should be 1000 a game, one loss makes it so shot lol. all about unit size i guess. makes u wana chase hard losing big

Serious question and I hope everyone answers..

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