Posted:
#1
The excitement of the Triple Crown will always bring me back to what I
consider possibly the most amazing sporting event I ever had the
pleasure to watch; the 1973 Belmont Stakes with Secretariat going for
the Triple Crown. At 2:28 of the video is my favorite line in sports’
history, “HE IS MOVING LIKE A TREMENDOUS MACHINE!” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfCMtaNiMDM
KENTUCKY DERBY:
Here’s a look at the field in the 142nd Run for the Roses.
#1 TROJAN NATION - No maiden has won the Derby since 1933 and the streak won’t be broken. Came up rail in the Wood Memorial at 81-1 to finish 2nd missing only a head in by far his best lifetime race. Saved a ton of ground in the Wood and may have been aided by the mud. Tough post to navigate in 20 horse field. Simply not fast enough and recent works have been mediocre at best.
#2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS - Tremendous improvement in his three races as a three year old. Amazing stretch run in the Southwest Stakes coming from dead last (14th) to win going away. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12ZEHfU0wR4. Finished 2nd in the Arkansas Derby closing into fractions that did not favor closers. One of many strong closers in race that has a puncher’s chance. Had the best figure in the Arkansas Derby considering weights and trips. Only three week break since his lifetime best figure, which could be tough to duplicate here but has some solid sheet numbers, which on his best could win this. Horse has gotten some wide trips and much shorter fields. Has a chance with a clear, ground saving trip.
#3 CREATOR - Won the Arkansas Derby three weeks back from far back and dead last in race that set up nicely for him. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIsx2lGYs_c. Ended up with a much better trip than Suddenbreakingnews (“SBN”). Has shown nice progression through his career but like SBN, a recent lifetime best on just three weeks rest is a tough recipe for a peak performance in the Derby. Said to be working well. Not out of the question
#4 MO TOM - Funniest thing I read this week is that Mo Tom finds more trouble than an underage sorority girl hanging on Bourbon Street at Mardi Gras. Horse just seems to find trouble constantly. Got up for 3rd in the Risen Star https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpqEFM2HSpc. Probably would have won had he not been forced to check. Was completely compromised in the Louisiana Derby (See video attached to Gun Runner). Won the LeComte from far back avoiding major road trouble out kicking stablemate, Tom’s Ready. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYDIAi7frB8. If he avoids trouble, he will be passing a lot of horses late. Lanerie, the leading rider at Churchill stays aboard despite skepticism of his last two rides on Mo. While I want to like him if he gets a decent trip, the races he was compromised in were somewhat slow, so even a winning trip in those wouldn’t be close to fast enough here. His figures would have to improve dramatically here to contend. Just don’t think he is fast enough.
#5 GUN RUNNER - Got a cushy trip to win the Louisiana Derby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRFbsiFD9W4 but hard to knock 4 wins in 5 career races with a win here at Churchill as a two year old. Has good tactical early speed to find a good spot early. Shows gradual improvement in all five career races but when you break him down, his figures aren’t that great and he has been aided by somewhat easy trips. Nice horse who could improve but his best figures are somewhat similar to #4 Mo Tom and as said there, those figures probably just aren’t fast enough.
#6 MY MAN SAM - Closed from far back going 8-wide to grab 2nd in the Bluegrass behind #19 Brody’s Cause. Shows steady improvement in all three races this year and his figures are a few points faster than #4 and #5 here. A paycheck is definitely within reach.
#7 OSCAR NOMINATED - As his name suggests, just being mentioned in the same category as top piers is an honor but other than that, this one has no chance. Has never raced on dirt and his turf and poly figures are way too slow. Toss!
#8 LANI - Kentucky bred horse, who had been racing in Japan and won the $1.2 million UAE Derby overseas after stumbling at the start. Horse has a major tendency of acting up before race time and particularly in the gate, which is not going to make the horses on either side of him very happy. True wild card but I lean towards thinking the UAE race field wasn’t all that special and that this horse just isn’t fast enough. Has had a strange workout pattern the last two weeks and word is his workouts have been less than stellar.
#9 DESTIN - Horse absolutely ran a freak race winning the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12th with a figure that was off the charts compared to his previous efforts and the best figure any horse in this field has ever run. Having said that, he now comes in off almost a two month layoff and Pletcher is 1 for 43 in the Derby and his Florida horses coming into the Derby have never fared well. His previous 4 efforts do not even make him a consideration here and its tough to see him not taking a major step backwards off the last effort and layoff. Not completely out of the question but tough for me to include.
#10 WHITMORE - Solid figures and efforts in both the Rebel and Arkansas Derby’s. Another one that likes to close from far back. Unproven at two turn races but a paycheck is definitely a possibility.
KENTUCKY DERBY:
Here’s a look at the field in the 142nd Run for the Roses.
#1 TROJAN NATION - No maiden has won the Derby since 1933 and the streak won’t be broken. Came up rail in the Wood Memorial at 81-1 to finish 2nd missing only a head in by far his best lifetime race. Saved a ton of ground in the Wood and may have been aided by the mud. Tough post to navigate in 20 horse field. Simply not fast enough and recent works have been mediocre at best.
#2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS - Tremendous improvement in his three races as a three year old. Amazing stretch run in the Southwest Stakes coming from dead last (14th) to win going away. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12ZEHfU0wR4. Finished 2nd in the Arkansas Derby closing into fractions that did not favor closers. One of many strong closers in race that has a puncher’s chance. Had the best figure in the Arkansas Derby considering weights and trips. Only three week break since his lifetime best figure, which could be tough to duplicate here but has some solid sheet numbers, which on his best could win this. Horse has gotten some wide trips and much shorter fields. Has a chance with a clear, ground saving trip.
#3 CREATOR - Won the Arkansas Derby three weeks back from far back and dead last in race that set up nicely for him. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIsx2lGYs_c. Ended up with a much better trip than Suddenbreakingnews (“SBN”). Has shown nice progression through his career but like SBN, a recent lifetime best on just three weeks rest is a tough recipe for a peak performance in the Derby. Said to be working well. Not out of the question
#4 MO TOM - Funniest thing I read this week is that Mo Tom finds more trouble than an underage sorority girl hanging on Bourbon Street at Mardi Gras. Horse just seems to find trouble constantly. Got up for 3rd in the Risen Star https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpqEFM2HSpc. Probably would have won had he not been forced to check. Was completely compromised in the Louisiana Derby (See video attached to Gun Runner). Won the LeComte from far back avoiding major road trouble out kicking stablemate, Tom’s Ready. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYDIAi7frB8. If he avoids trouble, he will be passing a lot of horses late. Lanerie, the leading rider at Churchill stays aboard despite skepticism of his last two rides on Mo. While I want to like him if he gets a decent trip, the races he was compromised in were somewhat slow, so even a winning trip in those wouldn’t be close to fast enough here. His figures would have to improve dramatically here to contend. Just don’t think he is fast enough.
#5 GUN RUNNER - Got a cushy trip to win the Louisiana Derby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRFbsiFD9W4 but hard to knock 4 wins in 5 career races with a win here at Churchill as a two year old. Has good tactical early speed to find a good spot early. Shows gradual improvement in all five career races but when you break him down, his figures aren’t that great and he has been aided by somewhat easy trips. Nice horse who could improve but his best figures are somewhat similar to #4 Mo Tom and as said there, those figures probably just aren’t fast enough.
#6 MY MAN SAM - Closed from far back going 8-wide to grab 2nd in the Bluegrass behind #19 Brody’s Cause. Shows steady improvement in all three races this year and his figures are a few points faster than #4 and #5 here. A paycheck is definitely within reach.
#7 OSCAR NOMINATED - As his name suggests, just being mentioned in the same category as top piers is an honor but other than that, this one has no chance. Has never raced on dirt and his turf and poly figures are way too slow. Toss!
#8 LANI - Kentucky bred horse, who had been racing in Japan and won the $1.2 million UAE Derby overseas after stumbling at the start. Horse has a major tendency of acting up before race time and particularly in the gate, which is not going to make the horses on either side of him very happy. True wild card but I lean towards thinking the UAE race field wasn’t all that special and that this horse just isn’t fast enough. Has had a strange workout pattern the last two weeks and word is his workouts have been less than stellar.
#9 DESTIN - Horse absolutely ran a freak race winning the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12th with a figure that was off the charts compared to his previous efforts and the best figure any horse in this field has ever run. Having said that, he now comes in off almost a two month layoff and Pletcher is 1 for 43 in the Derby and his Florida horses coming into the Derby have never fared well. His previous 4 efforts do not even make him a consideration here and its tough to see him not taking a major step backwards off the last effort and layoff. Not completely out of the question but tough for me to include.
#10 WHITMORE - Solid figures and efforts in both the Rebel and Arkansas Derby’s. Another one that likes to close from far back. Unproven at two turn races but a paycheck is definitely a possibility.
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