2023 Breeders Cup

A place for Breeders Cup related material, be it information, wagers, etc.

Withdrawn from the races are:

Toca Madera (Ire) - Juvenile Turf Sprint

Sauterne (Fr) - Mile

Belleza de Arteaga (Arg) - Distaff

Piz Badile (Ire) - Turf

Anarchist - Sprint

2023 BREEDER'S CUP - Past Performances

https://production-picks-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2023/10/breeders-cup-classic-23-pre-entries.pdf

Some notes from.today

White Albario worked 5f in his new size 8 shoes in 59.8

International shippers are due 10/29/23, Sunday, 10pm

Domestic shippers are due 10/31/23, Tuesday

Flattery, JF Turf, had Juan Hernandez up for the workout

Stay Hot, J Turf, put in a 5f workout

Both trained by local trainer.

Go Rocket Ride, changed today's workout from today to Saturday, will go ,7F with !like Smith up

Draw will take place the 30th, Monday.

Equibase dot com has free PP'S for all the Breeders Cup races.

Many changes have taken place since the post positions were drawn causing a rework the wagering for Friday.

DRF is offering $200 bonus to any NEW customer.

Twin spires, last I knew, was also giving a bonus to any NEW customer.

Friday's first BC race is scheduled for 5:00pm ET.  The under card provides opportunities to increase your bankroll.  

Have a betting strategy and money management plan for all the races.  There are 14 BC races over the two days, if you want to bet  $20 a race, you'll need $280.  Even if you hit a decent or better race/ticket early stick to your plan because that may be the only race you pop on both days and at least you'll, generally, have a profit.

Most of the tv "experts" will take one of the top three public's choices/favorites.  They will get more right than a number of people but still be down where it counts the most (money).  One of the worst I've ever seen is some former NHL player.  He use to be on NBC for all shown races but they had to reduce him to only a few days a year (BC, KYD and TC).  He has never shown a profit for any of the days I've seen him and more than once the network had to add money to his tv bankroll.  It's to the point now, that if I know he's on a horse I planned on using for the win (and win related keys in the exotics) , I change my tickets/wagers.  Most times my choice finishes ahead of his - doesn't mean cashing tickets, just in front (his choice was 7th, mine was 5th type of deal). Who is this wonderful person to fade?  None other than Eddie O.

It's been mentioned/reported/stated for Friday's card Ecoro Neo (#5, race 8 - Juvenile) and Liam's Journey (#11, race 9 - Juvenile Turf) both will be scratched.

In route races on the main track between 10/15/23 & 10/31/23, post positions 5, 7, 8 and 10 are collectively 0 for 17 (#5 is 0-12, #10 has no attempts).

In sprint races on the main track between 10/15/23 & 10/31/23, post positions 5, 8, 9 and 10 are winless - #5 is again the worst offender having gone 0 for 18, all the others listed have attempted the course (as a group they are 0 for 24).

In turf routes between 10/15/23 and 10/31/23 post position #3 is the worst (0 for 16).  The only other post without a win is #10 (0 for 0).

In turf sprints posts 8-10 were collectively 1 for 9 between 10/15/23 and 10/31/23.

Good stuff

So do you think inside posts will be beneficial, mostly in the shorter races on Fri/Sat?

Thank you, when people share knowledge there's an opportunity to make a better choice/decision.  Horses from the post positions from my previous post using the method I do get a deduction.  I use between a half dozen and two dozen filters for the various BC races including such things from each horse, trainer, jockey, workouts etc.  Each category receives 'x' number of points, add the categories total to get a total score, rank them, wait for the days track changes and see how the track is playing that day.  Sometimes it works really well, others not.  After all, this is racing, anything can happen and often does which is why, to me, money management is very important.  I'm not rich nor have an infinite bankroll but win or lose, for the day, I enjoy what I'm doing and that's what matters most to me.  

Inside post positions technically have less distance than those from the middle or outside.  To illustrate this I bring up the Kentucky Derby, I know these races are not that one but follow the logic.  The horse you like is a front runner but drew post position 19, the question then becomes do the connections want to send him to the front for his normal style race is will they tell the pilot to get to the rail to save ground.  The other extreme is your choice drew the rail and normally a mid pack presser type.  If the horse doesn't get out quick to establish position, they will be covered by the club house turn and most likely not win.  What I plan on doing is track the races to see how the surfaces are playing and adjust my tickets accordingly.  Do keep in mind tracks can change how they are playing during the day - weather, harrowing etc can effect these things.

Here is what I have for Friday's scratches at this time. 

Race 5: 13

Race 8: 5

Race 9: 11

There could be more and this is not track changes.

 Look forward to your plays

Thank you and  with your wagers.

Pretty Mischievous will not race Saturday - major blow to the race.

Ryan Moore will replace Frankie D since his (RM) his horse scratched.

Race 5

Set 1 (New Process)

$1 exacta box: 1,2,11,12

$0.50 trifecta box 1,2,11,12

Set 2 (Rookie)

$1 exacta box: 1,2,3,4

$0.50 trifecta box: 1,2,3,4

Set 3 (Prep)

$1 exacta box: 4,7,9,12

$0.50 trifecta box: 4,7,9,12

Set 4 (Blend)

$1 exacta box: 2,6,8,10

$0.50 trifecta box: 2,6,8,10

$96 invested.

I will also be weight dutching the win under 5 MTP with some of the above.  Amounts are unknown at this time.

Set

Results race 5

4 (5/2) won

10 (25/1) placed

6 (33:1) showed

2 (7:2)  hit the board

Known Scratches For Breeders Cup Saturday, 11.04.23, From Santa Anita

Race 3: 2, 7

Race 6: 12

Race 8: 4, 6

Race 9: 1

Race 10: 2, 13, 16

Race 11: 3

 ,

Here is my OVERNIGHT LIST.

Race 1: 2, 3, 5, 6

Race 2: 5, 6, 7, 11, 12

Race 3: 3, 4, 9

Race 4: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 11 (Chad Brown vs The O’Briens)

Race 5: 1, 3, 4, 8

Race 6: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 14

Race 7: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

Race 8: 7, 9, 10, 11, 13

Race 9: 2, 3, 5, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13

Race 10: 1, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14

Race 11: 1, 7, 8, 9

Race 12: 3, 6, 7, 12

Obviously some of the races need to be trimmed to a manageable level and will once seeing how the track is playing.

Good luck today will be watching let’s make that money ??

Here is another scratch:

Race 2: 12

Thank you and to you as well.

Race 1

$1 Exacta 3 with all

Cost $4

Horse did not take to the dirt and fought jockey most of trip eventually went from racing to galloping.  Generally when that happens, there is a bleeding issue.  Awaiting information as to what happened.

Race 2

$0.50 tri box: 5,6,7,11,12 ... cost $12

$0.10 sup box: 5,6,7,11,12 ... cost $30

Total cost: $42.00

 Result: 7-12-6-1

Trifecta paid $76.50.

Race wad +$26.60.