Looks like a very contentious affair with a wild card or two in the mix.
1) Kavod……This guy is one of the wild cards, a colt that has found trouble in just about every race he’s run. On paper, looks like cheap speed, but sharp trainer Chris Hartman takes the blinks off (trainer is 50% blinkers off) and hopes that Kavod’s speed turns to gold. Hartman is running high after whipping up on the Churchill Blue Bloods last summer with a win percentage as high as 39% at one point; striking at 31% wins so far in 2022. Kavod has finished 4 in his last three races (Rebel, SW & Smarty Jones; runner up to a few in this race) losing all three by just a combined 10-1/4L. I think he gets out. If he doesn’t run into past troubles, you never know as this horse has yet to run his race. Murrill in the irons, a guy I loved when he was at AP and Hawthorne. Tough post off the rail, but he has early speed to get in position. He and Hartman have hit at 30% wins 2021-22. I have to include for a taste as this could be a nice day for all connections at 15-1 ML.
2) Chasing Time…..You remember Saint Steve Asmussen, who seems to have taken a vacation recently, but parades this 12-1 ML colt into this race? On the plus side, Chasing Time ran a nice Rebel in his three year old debut and his work coming in is excellent. Horse reminds me a bit of Super Stock, Asmussen’s winner of the Ark Derby last year. Interesting that Lezcano will be the 7 jockey to ride the animal during his 6 race career. Jockey and trainer work well together. I just don’t think Chasing Time is fast enough, but with Asmussen’s charges, you never know.
3) Barber Road…..I just don’t know what to make of this colt. He’s finished in the money in each of his 6 races, but hasn’t found the winner’s circle in his last four against the better contenders (Rebel, SW & Smarty Jones). Could this be the day as he keeps forging ahead from mid-pack? Slip ups upfront would help his cause. I like the post, the trainer (John Ortiz) and the jockey, Gutierrez. Trainer says Barber Road will stay closer to the pace, but he needs to be careful to not get involved with the speed demons. A piece, perhaps.
4) Doppelganger…..Recently transferred from Baffert to Tim Yakteen, former BB deck hand. Seems to me like this horse has been around for 10 years. Blinkers are lifted (60% wins w/o for trainer) for a guy who finished second by nearly 6L to Forbidden Kingdom in one of the most impressive performances of the TC season by the winner. Baffert has won this race 4 times, including 2 of the last 3, so some might consider this a handicap point, for what it’s worth. Bullet work coming in with a terrific stretch work just prior. Johnny V rides, a race he’s never won. A real contender for win, but I must ask the elephant in the room if Doppelganger can run without Baffert’s magic potions.
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Arkansas Derby
Looks like a very contentious affair with a wild card or two in the mix.
1) Kavod……This guy is one of the wild cards, a colt that has found trouble in just about every race he’s run. On paper, looks like cheap speed, but sharp trainer Chris Hartman takes the blinks off (trainer is 50% blinkers off) and hopes that Kavod’s speed turns to gold. Hartman is running high after whipping up on the Churchill Blue Bloods last summer with a win percentage as high as 39% at one point; striking at 31% wins so far in 2022. Kavod has finished 4 in his last three races (Rebel, SW & Smarty Jones; runner up to a few in this race) losing all three by just a combined 10-1/4L. I think he gets out. If he doesn’t run into past troubles, you never know as this horse has yet to run his race. Murrill in the irons, a guy I loved when he was at AP and Hawthorne. Tough post off the rail, but he has early speed to get in position. He and Hartman have hit at 30% wins 2021-22. I have to include for a taste as this could be a nice day for all connections at 15-1 ML.
2) Chasing Time…..You remember Saint Steve Asmussen, who seems to have taken a vacation recently, but parades this 12-1 ML colt into this race? On the plus side, Chasing Time ran a nice Rebel in his three year old debut and his work coming in is excellent. Horse reminds me a bit of Super Stock, Asmussen’s winner of the Ark Derby last year. Interesting that Lezcano will be the 7 jockey to ride the animal during his 6 race career. Jockey and trainer work well together. I just don’t think Chasing Time is fast enough, but with Asmussen’s charges, you never know.
3) Barber Road…..I just don’t know what to make of this colt. He’s finished in the money in each of his 6 races, but hasn’t found the winner’s circle in his last four against the better contenders (Rebel, SW & Smarty Jones). Could this be the day as he keeps forging ahead from mid-pack? Slip ups upfront would help his cause. I like the post, the trainer (John Ortiz) and the jockey, Gutierrez. Trainer says Barber Road will stay closer to the pace, but he needs to be careful to not get involved with the speed demons. A piece, perhaps.
4) Doppelganger…..Recently transferred from Baffert to Tim Yakteen, former BB deck hand. Seems to me like this horse has been around for 10 years. Blinkers are lifted (60% wins w/o for trainer) for a guy who finished second by nearly 6L to Forbidden Kingdom in one of the most impressive performances of the TC season by the winner. Baffert has won this race 4 times, including 2 of the last 3, so some might consider this a handicap point, for what it’s worth. Bullet work coming in with a terrific stretch work just prior. Johnny V rides, a race he’s never won. A real contender for win, but I must ask the elephant in the room if Doppelganger can run without Baffert’s magic potions.
5) Un Ojo…..The one-eyed wonder is a colt that I am having a bit of an issue to accept him as a true Derby contender despite his gutty effort to win the Rebel after being transferred from Dutrow’s barn to current trainer Ricky Courville. I guess I am just not totally sold on the competition he’s faced in both the Rebel and Withers. Having said this, Un Ojo is the only one in this race to go 1-1/8 (winning the Rebel) with breeding for the distance in tow. A note of interest…..jockey Vazquez won at a 30% clip last year with he and the trainer a nice win combo. Despite my blahs, I think he is a contender for some.
6) Secret Oath…..D. Wayne Lukas, at age 86, continues to amaze, maybe not so much for his training, but for his instinct and guts. The former Wisconsin school teacher runs this brilliant filly in a race she can win if, for any other reason than this being International Woman’s Month (Does Winning Colors ring a bell?). Here’s the evidence, Your Honor. She’s 6/4-0-0 lifetime winning her last three with Beyer’s of 92, 88, 93 and by a combined 23 lengths. Three for three at Oak Lawn, don’t be surprised if she goes off as the fave. Lukas has won this race twice, but the last win was in 1985! Note that D. Wayne won this with filly Althea in 1984. Proceed with caution and note little accomplished jockey Luis Contreras in the saddle (9% wins), but the gal looks like she is the real deal, even if I was riding the filly.
7) Ben Diesel…..Dallas Stewart is another of the old school trainers who has had a lot of local success at Oak Lawn, but he has a habit of putting lesser horses in spots like this one. Despite his excellent breeding, Ben Diesel is 5/1-0-1 with a career high Beyer of 84 (SW Stakes, finished 3). Excellent recent work and could move forward, but not with my money.
8) Cyberknife….The wunderkind trainer of 2021, Brad Cox, has a potential star in Cyberknife, the Gun Runner colt that is 5/2-2-0 career. His only real blemish was in the LeComte, a somewhat sizeable pimple considering it was his only graded stakes race. However, I think you can set aside that race because he is working well with a very nice win last out. Frenchie (Geroux) man’s the strap coming off an 87 Beyer and, much like Pletcher’s putting young horses in similar spots, I think Cyberknife can win this.
9) We the People….Let’s talk about another wild card. First blush says this son of Constitution probably doesn’t belong here. However, in his two career races, he’s hit Beyer’s of 83 and 89 wining by a combined 10-3/4L. On that alone, it’s worth a shot. Interesting that Prat has the mount off of Doppelganger with whom he found success. Not so known trainer Brisset is a pretty decent conditioner seemingly moving this horse right along, as evidenced by his work pattern and stretch out in his last race; 2 for 2 at OP. We the People will get out fast and head for the lead. Let’s see what happens, but he’s intriguing, and I will play.
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5) Un Ojo…..The one-eyed wonder is a colt that I am having a bit of an issue to accept him as a true Derby contender despite his gutty effort to win the Rebel after being transferred from Dutrow’s barn to current trainer Ricky Courville. I guess I am just not totally sold on the competition he’s faced in both the Rebel and Withers. Having said this, Un Ojo is the only one in this race to go 1-1/8 (winning the Rebel) with breeding for the distance in tow. A note of interest…..jockey Vazquez won at a 30% clip last year with he and the trainer a nice win combo. Despite my blahs, I think he is a contender for some.
6) Secret Oath…..D. Wayne Lukas, at age 86, continues to amaze, maybe not so much for his training, but for his instinct and guts. The former Wisconsin school teacher runs this brilliant filly in a race she can win if, for any other reason than this being International Woman’s Month (Does Winning Colors ring a bell?). Here’s the evidence, Your Honor. She’s 6/4-0-0 lifetime winning her last three with Beyer’s of 92, 88, 93 and by a combined 23 lengths. Three for three at Oak Lawn, don’t be surprised if she goes off as the fave. Lukas has won this race twice, but the last win was in 1985! Note that D. Wayne won this with filly Althea in 1984. Proceed with caution and note little accomplished jockey Luis Contreras in the saddle (9% wins), but the gal looks like she is the real deal, even if I was riding the filly.
7) Ben Diesel…..Dallas Stewart is another of the old school trainers who has had a lot of local success at Oak Lawn, but he has a habit of putting lesser horses in spots like this one. Despite his excellent breeding, Ben Diesel is 5/1-0-1 with a career high Beyer of 84 (SW Stakes, finished 3). Excellent recent work and could move forward, but not with my money.
8) Cyberknife….The wunderkind trainer of 2021, Brad Cox, has a potential star in Cyberknife, the Gun Runner colt that is 5/2-2-0 career. His only real blemish was in the LeComte, a somewhat sizeable pimple considering it was his only graded stakes race. However, I think you can set aside that race because he is working well with a very nice win last out. Frenchie (Geroux) man’s the strap coming off an 87 Beyer and, much like Pletcher’s putting young horses in similar spots, I think Cyberknife can win this.
9) We the People….Let’s talk about another wild card. First blush says this son of Constitution probably doesn’t belong here. However, in his two career races, he’s hit Beyer’s of 83 and 89 wining by a combined 10-3/4L. On that alone, it’s worth a shot. Interesting that Prat has the mount off of Doppelganger with whom he found success. Not so known trainer Brisset is a pretty decent conditioner seemingly moving this horse right along, as evidenced by his work pattern and stretch out in his last race; 2 for 2 at OP. We the People will get out fast and head for the lead. Let’s see what happens, but he’s intriguing, and I will play.
Mykey... believe it or not, I was thinking about you just the other day. So glad to hear from you. Hope all is well and that Brian Kelly doesn't turn into Curley Hallman! Let's stay in touch.
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@Tygermyke
Mykey... believe it or not, I was thinking about you just the other day. So glad to hear from you. Hope all is well and that Brian Kelly doesn't turn into Curley Hallman! Let's stay in touch.
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