Arkansas Derby Analysis and Picks

Arkansas Derby 2019, G-1, $1 million, 1-18 miles

 Some might say that if Improbable wins this race, they oughta rename it the “Baffert Arkansas Derby.” After all, the California trainer has won this thing twice in the last six years. However, we tend to forget that Todd Pletcher has won it three of the last six years and five times in total! Problem is, Pletch doesn’t have a horse in the race…..literally. Asmussen, who won in 2002, 2007 (Curlin) and 2016 has four of the eleven entrants in this, which is sort of like stuffing the ballot box in a Chicago election. This might turn out to be one of the best, if not the best, of all the prep races during a year where speed seems to be lacking.

#1 Improbable……..Finishing second to Long Range Toddy (the 11 horse today) in the Rebel (Division I), Improbable looks to improve. His first race as a three-year old, he certainly needed the Rebel after laying off since December 18. I just wonder, out loud, with the many of the Californians training at Santa Anita, how much (if any) of their regular training routine was disturbed by the track’s surface problems. Can his loss in the Rebel be attributed, in part? The boy draws the inside post in the largest field he’s ever faced, but with the move to J. Ortiz, one of the best tactical riders, along with the colt’s natural tactical speed, I have little concern. A deserved 8/5 ML and, with a win, the probable Kentucky Derby favorite.

#2 Six Shooter….…Trainer Bob Holthaus won this race with the great Lawyer Ron in 2006. While the colt is out of Trappe Shot, a solid performer and sire, he’s no Lawyer Ron. He has talent with a lofty career of 10/4-0-3, including a 3^rd in the SW Stakes at Oak Lawn. It’s a short possibility that Six Shooter could snag a small slice at 30-1. David Cohen takes the mount.

#3 Omaha Beach……..Everyone seems to love this guy, and rightfully so. Trained by the legendary Richard Mandella, he’s been lit in every race (6/3-2-1), including his excellent run in the Rebel (Division II) coming back to beat Game Winner by a nose. Note: Game Winner’s 2^nd place in the SA Derby resulted in a 97 Beyer. OB’s Beyer was 96 in the Rebel, a career best.  I expect him to be all over Improbable, like Jussie Smullet on a tuna fish sandwich, with a possible fight to the finish. Who better than Mike Smith, his Rebel pilot, to ride? Second fave at 2-1. Working like a monster for this.

#4 Tikvin Flew………Out of Street Sense, there should be some talent here. Asmussen trains a colt with a win in his maiden, a 3^rd in the competitive Jimmy Wakefield, but a dismal 6^th, almost 11 out, in the Gotham. Not much speed here and I can’t even see a nibble ITM. Tyler Baze grabs the reins.

#5 Laughing Fox………Call me a fool, but I think, with the right trip, some racing luck and a bit of trouble upfront, this son of prolific Union Rags actually has a shot at winning. Three-time winner of this, Asmussen can get sneaky in spots like this (i.e. IRAP in 2017 in the Blue Grass). Prior to getting thumped in the Rebel (Division II) by 12+L, with early trouble, LF won two in a row at Oak Lawn, both routed affairs. One of the few mid-pack closers here, I cannot dismiss for a major piece, if not for the win. Steve and the jock combined for 22 wins in 2018-19.

#6 Gray Attempt………Crafty Ol’ Jinx Fires’ one big hope this year, this Graydar colt has some decent speed, perhaps enough to do harm to Improbable and Omaha Beach in the early going. In his six starts, he’s wired four times hitting a 90 Beyer last out in the Gazebo with a lifetime high of 92 in the Sugar Bowl. I will tossing his SW sloppy effort. Gray Attempt is chalking up sophomore experience with this his third race of 2019. Jinx won this race in 2011 with ArchArch and has a decent shot at the target today. Stu Elliot rides……..You remember him? He rode Smarty Jones to a Derby win and throughout much of the Great One’s career. A spicy 8-1 ML with possible double-digit odds at post time.

#7 Galilean………Jockey Prat takes on this guy 2^nd off Omaha Beach, with whom he was 5/1-3-1 before Smith took over. The Uncle Mo colt has done a lot with a career three wins in five starts with one second and a third. His three wins are all in graded stakes with two of them at two turns. Galilean hit his career Beyer high of 91 last out in the Rebel (Division I) when he finished third just 2-1/2L to Toddy. Sharp vet Hollendorfer removes the blinkers for the first time since the lad’s debut win. He’s live at 10-1, if that 91 was real, as he is expected to be among the leaders out of gate. Stellar work; a must-consider.

#8 Country House………..I said Laughing Fox is game for win in this one, but so is this fellow. His speed appears no to be much of a match against some of the entrants, but this could set up for his excellent closing style, as he did in his lone win at GP and when he came from deep to finish second in the Risen Star. What I like best is that Joel Rosario handles the chores for Bill Mott. At 12-1, I have to put him in the mix with win-backers needing the upfront speed to set him off in the final furlong.

#9 One Flew South……….Calvin Borel emerges from his man cave to ride for Doug O’Neill on a Giant’s Causeway colt who, on paper, has no business being here. His 50/1 ML odds reflect that thought. Not so fast! While he was 5^th in the Mine That Bird at Sunland (you will recall that MTB was Calvin’s Derby winner), he improved. At that time, OFS was trained by Wesley Ward. Here is what we know: he gets blinks for the first time with the trainer 27% wins with this tactic. His dam, out of Sky Mesa, was a multiple stakes winner; and, with Calvin on top, who knows if he’ll grab the rail, hang on for dear life……and win. I don’t think so, but stranger things have happened!

#10 Jersey Agenda………..The third of the four Asmussen’s in this race, the boy has shown some skills in his two wins. However, when he got together with the big guys in the Rebel (5^th, 10+ out) and SW Stakes (8^th, 10 out), he didn’t show up. Not sure what Steve’s motives are, but I just don’t see this one doing anything today.

#11 Long Range Toddy………..I am sorry he drew 11^th, as I would have liked to have seen the son of Take Charge Indy a little closer to the fray. However, Asmussen’s boy does have a skilled pilot in Jon Court, who won the Rebel with LRT. Early in the colt’s career, he showed that he is capable of getting out. Not sure if the plan is to draw him in, or sit back and try to close hard. I think he can do both. The Derby points leader among the field, his 95 in the Rebel was no fluke. The horse can be tactical, so let’s see if he can make a run at the top two today, while possible holding off Laughing Fox and Country House.

My Picks:

As much as I like the chances of Improbable or Omaha Beach to be the winner, I will play against, as I simply sense upset is in the air.

#8 Country House to win and place………I think this is the day he runs his race. While speed isn’t his thing, with Improbable, Omaha Beach Gray Attempt, Jersey  Agenda and, perhaps, Galilean speed-balling it, the race could set up for Country House at 12-1. In Roserio, I trust!

$16 exacta whl: 12/1,3,6

$8 exacta whl: 12/5,7,11

$2 tri whl: 12/1,3,5,6,7,11/1,3,5,6,7,11

$8 exacta whl: 8/5,7,11

$2 tri whl: 8/1,3,5,6,7,11/1,3,5,6,7,11

DUH!

Tremendous write-up/info.

Won some money with an Exacta Box, and a Tri Wheel.

Didn't see Laughing fox, or I could have turned a dime into 31.44. That's literally a 10-cent superfecta, har-har.

See you at The Derby. Hard to wheel a 20-horse field, that's for sure