Belmont long shots/ picks

Question

I am really liking #6 Incognito at 20-1. He has the pedigree to run for days.
I also like over #3 analyze at 12-1. Not that big of a long shot but I can see him going off at 15-1. With his good race, bad race, then good race pattern he is following, he is due for a good one. Also think his running style will be perfect for how I see this race unfolding.

5,3,6 is my pick. What do y'all got and why?

CapPRO · Answer

I am really liking #6 Incognito at 20-1. He has the pedigree to run for days.
I also like over #3 analyze at 12-1. Not that big of a long shot but I can see him going off at 15-1. With his good race, bad race, then good race pattern he is following, he is due for a good one. Also think his running style will be perfect for how I see this race unfolding.

5,3,6 is my pick. What do y'all got and why?

CapPRO · Answer

I got one thing on orb. I think he wins this. I know he is the favorite and no one on here likes him to win after that Preakness flop he had. I think you can throw that race out while looking at him. Gary Stevens said that after the race right before the Preakness he walked across the main track (from inside to out).  He said for his first six steps he just sank deep in the mud, then when he got to the middle of the track it got hard. He said he knew no matter what he knew he had to stay away from the inside.  Orb was stuck on the inside the whole race.  Back on his home track and with a good post I think he bounces back big.

giant_causeway · Answer

Pace is the key here. Mordin noted: "Pace is a weird thing is dirt races. If the leader goes&#xD;&#xA;just a bit too fast the whole field tires badly to clock a time a second or more&#xD;&#xA;slower than they would have run off a more even gallop. But if the leader is&#xD;&#xA;allowed to go just a bit too slow it is very hard for the other runners to catch&#xD;&#xA;them. This is because horses can only make up ground at about a third the rate&#xD;&#xA;they can on turf due to the more slipper nature of the surface.&#xD;&#xA;This year&#x27;s Preakness Stakes demonstrates what happens when&#xD;&#xA;a front runner is allowed to go too slow on dirt. Oxbow was allowed to go&#xD;&#xA;1.21 seconds slower for the first six furlongs than they&#x27;d run in an Optional&#xD;&#xA;Claimer earlier on the card over a furlong shorter where the claiming price was&#xD;&#xA;just $25,000. As a result his rivals just couldn&#x27;t get to him in the closing&#xD;&#xA;stages.&#xD;&#xA;Oxbow made all the running when winning his maiden over&#xD;&#xA;seven furlongs. And the only previous time he&#x27;d won at a longer distance came&#xD;&#xA;the only other time he&#x27;d been allowed to set a pace slower than 1m 13 seconds&#xD;&#xA;for the first six furlongs."

giant_causeway · Answer

Cracking summary there by Nick Mordin. Agree with you on Orb but Rosario must assume the stalker position and kick for home early if the pace is too slow. 7/2 with UK books not a bad price at all and I've taken that price.

Overanalyze: I retain the very same doubts about his stamina as before the KD and over a more galloping course, I cannot see him staying well enough even on fast going.

Of the longshots, Golden Soul tempts and I'll probably have a small punt on exactas, trifectas.

GL!

angrybarber · Answer

People keep saying his home track, hes never even raced there. And if you didnt know the Kentucky Derby winner hasnt won the Belmont since 1995

angrybarber · Answer

GC what do you make of the euros in the turf races before the belmomt??

CapPRO · Answer

It&#39;s his home track...  It&#39;s where he trains its his home where he is most comfortable. &quot;It&#39;s great to have him back home&quot; shug&quot;It&#x2019;s a great advantage to be on your home court, where you train your horses&#x201D;

CapPRO · Answer

It&#39;s his home track...  It&#39;s where he trains its his home where he is most comfortable. &quot;It&#39;s great to have him back home&quot; shug&quot;It&#x2019;s a great advantage to be on your home court, where you train your horses&#x201D;

CapPRO · Answer

&#x201C;It&#x2019;s a great advantage to be on your home court, where you train your horses,&#x201D; said Lukas, who used to have a Belmont-based stable. &#x201C;They don&#x2019;t have to ship in and get settled, and then get over the surface. They&#x2019;ve already been doing that.&#x201D;

giant_causeway · Answer

AngryB, Only one Euro is Laugh Out Loud but no chance. Thing about last season's Classic generation in Europe is they stunk: plain and simple. Novellist and Pastorius along with Camelot the best middle distance classic colts last year but Camelot already beaten by Al Kazeem. This year's fillies look weak and even the colts too. After the vintage years of Sea The Stars, Frankel and Henrythenavigator/Raven's Pass and New Approach perhaps I've been spoilt!

Looking forward to Point of Entry in the Woodford Reserve. Not sure what sort of price he'll be but will be short for sure. 4/5 didn't stop me on Wise Dan last time out at the KD meeting so anything like that is worth a punt. Optimizer the danger but Point of Entry the clear class act in the race.

giant_causeway · Answer

Intello the French colt does look VERY good as well as Style Vendome but can't imagine the UK and Ireland colts bar Dawn Approach over a mile turning out to be very good. I think the Japanese ORfevre, Gold Ship and Gentildonna will dominate the older horse division and globally I expect the older horses to hold sway once again with only Intello (10f+) and Dawn Approach (8f) passable threats.

Animal Kingdom, Wise Dan and Point of Entry all true elite horses and would love to see Wise Dan in the BC Classic! Starting to ramble now! GL

"Home advantage" especially over the normal oval circuits of America applies globally but Belmont should suit stayers more then speed. In comparison to tight turning courses like Santa Anita and Churchill Downs, it's a giant oval circuit and that will suit Orb. Bottom line: PAce is the key. It's in Joel Rosario's hands.

CapPRO · Answer

I&#39;m with you GC and I can&#39;t wait for point of entry!  He has been looking amazing in his works and is in tip top shape. As close to a sure win as it gets.

CapPRO · Answer

I&#39;m betting point of entry gets scratched. They will probably be off the turf Saturday and I doubt he runs on dirt.

spliquid · Answer

Shug said today Point of Entry is probably going to run and that he thought the turf at Churchill doesn&#x27;t dry out as well as Belmont, which is why he scratched him last time and that tomorrow&#x27;s distance should suit him.  I really think they are going to keep it on the turf since the rain is supposed to stop early enough

angrybarber · Answer

They will not take races 9-10 off the turf there is absolutely no chance of that happening

vetdrm · Answer

Like OveranylyzeThat would give you an 0 for all 3 racesSeriously though, I think this race pays big,especially if it continues to rain tomorrow. Ingognito and thee O&#x27; on slop are as good as any other and will pay nicely.Good luck on your play tomorrow cap

angrybarber · Answer

i have exactas and tris with INCOGNITO and GIANT FINISH keyed and across bets on both, INCOGNITO eats up ground in the stretch better then any horse in this field and he is bred for this race, as for GIANT FINISH i think he will appreciate the distance and i am an Edgar Prado fan.

CapPRO · Answer

I hope y&#39;all are right about the turn. I guess it all come down to the weather. My belmont plays will be win money on orb with place and show money on golden soul and overanalyze. I&#39;ll play some tris, supers, and exactas with 3,5,9,14 probably put 2 and 7 in there some how. Good luck y&#39;all

CapPRO · Answer

Slow night at work and I have just been studying the race and watch some of their past races on you tube. I'm starting to really like golden soul.
Everyone knows he finished great in the KD but his Louisiana Derby was very nice. He came flying up 8 wide and was gaining on revolutionary. The distance will not be a problem at all for him that's for sure.

giant_causeway · Answer

Point of Entry 4/6 with UK bookies. Touch too short for my liking. Will have a small punt on a forecast for interest. Point of Entry to beat Optimizer.

Have Orb at 7/2 and will have a go at the trifecta perming Orb, Revolutionary, Will Take Charge and Incognito. Very quiet day this side of the Atlantic until ROyal Ascot in a week and a half. Can't wait!

Don't know if you guys follow but top class racing headlined by Animal Kingdom in the Queen Anne. I hope he shows the same zip over a straight mile as he did at the Breeders and the race is his for the taking.

BEst of Luck!

donkey_dealer08 · Answer

I&#x27;m going to key in orb to win and box 8 horses behind him. I think he bounces back huge here and I&#x27;m hoping some long shots follow behind him.

Belmont long shots/ picks

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