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Belmont Park - 6/5 + 6/6

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Posted: #1
friday:

race 5

2 WP

15/1 ml.  recency (fitness), breeding, trainer.  debut at 7/8ths not easy to do i'm taking a shot the two favs hang late, a few I tossed, and other firsters have very iffy blood/sibs in an overall modest field.  like the long set of consistent drills leading up to a 5F move two back with the sharpest 4F move way back on 4/24 (makes me consider he saw a little something and just slowly building him up).  daddy hits at 20% in debut.  trainer is 22% in debut and 16% overall MSW with a modest stable overall.  not bred to be superman by any means but of the six sibs three sucked and three weren't all that bad.  one ran 101 turf sprint and 101 turf route, another ran 88 turf route, and the other an 80 dirt route.  could have the gas in the tank for the 7/8ths if he comes out firing.  i'll take a swing with him.  0.75 units.  
 
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this 9 here last out 79 fig 8.5F (one tunr) fairly easy pace got nailed late by two horses so yes dangerous cutting back but he couldn't do it with an easy setup as a 17/1 bomb which tells what he was facing if he almost wired them at 17/1.  the 10 probably chalkie last out ran an 80 going 6.5F had the race right there to win simply didn't do it got nipped.  now he has to go 7F and this will likely be his third straight as the fav.  

obviously pletch with the 6 will get bet has a sib that ran 118 but all the others were quite modest he's training like a typical pletch debut horse but the flip side of his 26% hit rate is he misses at 74% in debut.  i'll take a shot try and play with variance instead of against it.
 
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Posted: #3
race 2

8 WP

20/1 ml.  recency, pace, late speed, pattern.  generally when I see a big fig jump it looks out of pattern but this bum had a few decent spins earlier and as a 5YO with only eight spins could be working his way into something somewhat credible.  popped a 92 last out off the innah crap yes against n2L cucpcakes but picked it up late after stalking and pouncing.  ran an 80 on the AQ main and 85/83 on the innah before showing a little something so i'm open to the idea that he won't bounce big.  also off almost seven weeks since the last with four easy, methodical drills for trainer with 23/37 to hit the board at belmont so far.  i look at this field and see a lot of topsy turvy fellas that are up and down and a chalkie for Mott that aired but slowed down late quite a bit and now faces winners with some early pace in this race.  so, why not i'll try this bum see what he's got.  if he fires again off the rest he could be sitting just off it with a chance to try and run them down in the lane.  0.75 units.    
 
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Posted: #4
saturday:  

race 11

G1 The Belmont Stakes

1 - pretty sure he's leaving the gate without me in this one.  yup not a great trip in Louisville but didn't seem to really accomplish all that much either.  gets quite a bit of work in the AM so either he's really fit, or he needs it, or some combo of that you'd have to ask the trainer.  who knows maybe he explodes but i'm not sensing it at this point.

2 - feel the winner's fig in balty was inflated as was his by association and maybe he just liked the slop more than the others.  didn't fire at all last time he came back this quick.  not buying that huge improvement if he hoses me so be it. 
 
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Posted: #5
3 - not putting much stock in the last he had the best rider on him in a blanket finish basically the whole field under a blanket on the wire.  prior to that won a 9F spin at GP as a 20 cents on the dollar fav with a modest 85 before getting crushed by AP.  blood doesn't imply big move forward here.  i'll probably fade him.

4 - this horse appears to be too slow.  more importantly, looks like he might be way, way in the back but lacking the ability to make up any meaningful ground late.  i love longshots but i don't see HOW he would win in terms of style or strategy.
 
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Posted: #6
5 - heavy chalkie might be 2/5 obviously he likes to win and is very, very accomplished.  i think the figs from last two are inflated (perhaps meaningfully) and though he is very good perhaps not superman.  but, maybe he doesn't have to be and is simply better than the others.  fourth spin in 8 weeks here and fifth in 12, don't care for the blood going out this far, and although just an eight horse field nonetheless seven other jocks whose obligation it is to try and make him not win by any legal means.  i will try and beat him.  i don't dislike him and it certainly isn't personal i could care less just don't see him as invincible especially with all the recent races adding up.
 
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Posted: #7
6 - considering fading this one as well.  two back still think it was a weak race and he lunged up to nail one that lost by a mile in the derby.  he's getting a ton of credit for "closing" when apparently nobody else did but comments say "churned" and he didn't gain all that much ground overall.  part of my skepticism could be that in the derby i think the figs are inflated and people are giving too much weight to this idea that the track "slowed down SO MUCH" when maybe it just wasn't that fast of a race that was rather slow late.  if that's the case this guy doesn't excite me that much because his other form is iffy (i know the surgery) and i feel if he tries to press the pace here (which admittedly might not be super fast) he might fold late.  plus he'll be 7/2 so the reward isn't all that big.  that said, he's working well and in general improving on paper so who am I to completely toss him without also knowing the tote could be right and he's capable.  sounds wishy washy because that's how i feel about him.  if i end up wrong who cares it's one race for a guy that plays every now and then.  could still throw him on P4 ticket if i play it.
 
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Posted: #8
7 - sexy bomb choice and i agree somewhat.  like the blood the most of all in here for this race and like that he is gradually improving and appears to be happy and doing well coming in.  did encounter some trouble last out but still made up ground and i expect him to bring a top effort here.  the challenge, which isn't insignificant, is that good lord how far back will this guy be?  i don't see him dramatically changing his running style successfully all of a sudden but can he at least stay in the same zip code.  IF he can stay within 8-10 lengths and start moving halfway around that turn i could see him making some noise.
 
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Posted: #9
8 - like this one at this point but i realize he'll get played.  like him on recency, pace, and pattern.  he tries every time.  smaller field and breaking outside he can go right to the front if he wants or let AP sit just in front of him.  blood doesn't scream for this but daddy did win it and he has two 9F wins and a solid effort at 10F after a terrible start.  put him out front and just try to make his stud career in about 2:30 is my guess for the tactics.  does he stay above 4/1???
 
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Posted: #10
Great writeup, atlas, agree with much of it, think frosted may go a little better than you say, but your points are all valid.  Agree that AP will have to prove he is one of the immortal ones, don't see it happening, too many fresher horses to challenge at some point and he may wear down at the end.  Materiality could step up or back at odds on the shorter side and I do agree that Keen Ice at 25-1 (maybe more?) could run a big one if he stays in touch with the field for the first half of the race.
 
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Posted: #11
It's going to be 7/8/5/6
 
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Posted: #12
If Keen wins ... I'm on super 7 / 1 ,2,3,6 / 1,2,3,6 / 1.2.3.4.5,6,8...
 
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Posted: #13
upside - good luck
jerryjr - good luck
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by howzuck:

Great writeup, atlas, agree with much of it, think frosted may go a little better than you say, but your points are all valid.  Agree that AP will have to prove he is one of the immortal ones, don't see it happening, too many fresher horses to challenge at some point and he may wear down at the end.  Materiality could step up or back at odds on the shorter side and I do agree that Keen Ice at 25-1 (maybe more?) could run a big one if he stays in touch with the field for the first half of the race.

howzuck - good luck this weekend

I would love to see the 7 at 25/1ish though mathematically I'm not sure how feasible this will be.  we've got an eight horse field here with maybe a 2/5 fav.  my sense is when push comes to shove they will ignore the 2 and 4.  i'm not going to be surprised if the 1 ends up a bit chilly as well.  the 3 has sexy connections and he did in fact win that prep race and though I don't care for him he could perhaps take some money.  6 and 8 will definitely get played.  as you well know it's merely a mathematical distribution of money represented by the respective odds on the tote so how much really is left for someone to play?  this may result in the 7 being well below the 20/1 ml.  we shall see only time will tell.  

for argument's sake let's say the 8 wins at 3/1.  the P4 might still be an appealing opportunity and they have the pool size to support it on a day like this.  here are the field sizes:

race 8 - 10
race 9 - 10
race 10 - 11
race 11 - 8

not gigantic fields but not terrible by any means.  some will say the fav wins all four of those and that is always possible.  the derby P4 was very chalky.  over a larger sample size with these field sizes and all graded stakes with two on turf the odds are at least one race will produce a winner above 5/1 if not above 10/1 and maybe even two of those races (or three or four even).  given that the P4 looks intriguing despite the ludicrous takeout if like me once in a while you like to play the races and have some fun.     
 
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Posted: #15

Nice write-ups Atlas.

The Derby pick 4 was chalky and still paid $500 which wasn't bad. Of course, 18 horses in the Derby helps that.

The way I see the odds in the Belmont are such that AP can be no higher than 3/5. Unlike the Big Brown and Smarty Jones years where there seemed to be no primary challenger, there is talk of Frosted and Materiality. Both of their odds should be in the 7/2-5-1 range. Mathematically, if Mub is in the 15-1 area, everyone else is going to have be astronomical.

 
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Posted: #16
We'll have to see how it unfolds.  Maybe an easier way for me to convey it is to say I can see the 7 being the fourth choice on the tote.  If that happens where does that leave him?  15/1ish?  

I don't see why the 4 should be below 50/1.  Personally I think it's possible 1, 2, and 3 float well above their MLs.  
 
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Posted: #17

Agreed on the 4. 50-1 area.

I think the 1 ends up in the 15-1 range. I don't see the 7 being any better than 25-1. I actually think MadeFromLucky (3) ends up the 4th choice in the 14-1 area.

2 will be in low 20s.

 
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Posted: #18
race 3

4 W

9/2 on the board.  pace, speed, pattern.  wire job or she folds under heat.  0.50 units (total).  
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

race 2

8 WP

20/1 ml.  recency, pace, late speed, pattern.  generally when I see a big fig jump it looks out of pattern but this bum had a few decent spins earlier and as a 5YO with only eight spins could be working his way into something somewhat credible.  popped a 92 last out off the innah crap yes against n2L cucpcakes but picked it up late after stalking and pouncing.  ran an 80 on the AQ main and 85/83 on the innah before showing a little something so i'm open to the idea that he won't bounce big.  also off almost seven weeks since the last with four easy, methodical drills for trainer with 23/37 to hit the board at belmont so far.  i look at this field and see a lot of topsy turvy fellas that are up and down and a chalkie for Mott that aired but slowed down late quite a bit and now faces winners with some early pace in this race.  so, why not i'll try this bum see what he's got.  if he fires again off the rest he could be sitting just off it with a chance to try and run them down in the lane.  0.75 units.    

4th at 18/1.  horse was full of run broke poorly, too far back, buried inside, not enough time to get all the way up.  
 
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Posted: #20
race 4

4 WP
 
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Posted: #21
race 6

3 WP

6/1 on the board.  recency, pattern, late speed.  1.00 units.
 
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Posted: #22
race 4 - totally flopped broke like a pig, tried to rally, and did nothing.  

race 5 - again, broke like a horse that had a couple of pianos dragging behind it.  closed like a rocket for fourth at 30/1

race 6 - fourth.  dull.  pressed the pace for some unknown reason.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

race 4 - totally flopped broke like a pig, tried to rally, and did nothing.  

race 5 - again, broke like a horse that had a couple of pianos dragging behind it.  closed like a rocket for fourth at 30/1

race 6 - fourth.  dull.  pressed the pace for some unknown reason.
 
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Posted: #24
ok, hesitated to do this but I'm outta here for the weekend fellas.  only typing this because i did start this thread and anybody that may have used these today did not get anything but frustration from them and there are guys in here I actually do like and respect among the overall crowd.

played three races today (3,4, and 6) that i did not intend on playing but did so because I got pissed when the 8 in race 2 was so far back he blew his chance to hit the exacta and was closing very strongly thus getting me pretty pissed off.  planned on races 2 and 5 all along.  also played race 7 just now and chased it up to 2 units and was on the 10 (trainer solid first out mile+, working very well, and literally some borderline turf superstars as sibs).  so, maybe I got lucky.  i'm on the 6 here in race 8.  don't like races 9 and 10.  probably played a few extra the other day and last friday as well so is starting a thread forcing me into more action which is my own fault for sure?

good luck the rest of the way boys.  my goal tomorrow is to ONLY play the ones i really want to and dropping this may or may not help that but i'm willing to try.  

i'm on 6 here meaning he will break horribly, rally, then fade.   
 
 
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Posted: #25
whats your pick 4 atlas?
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