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Belmont Stakes Analysis

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Posted: #1
#1 Choclate Candy 10-1...Very tough horse for me to figure, as are most horses from Calif. He has a very solid ,but slow, condition line and his only dirt try was in the slop in the Derby. He needs to jump up quite a bit here for the win but at double digit odds he can be included in the exotic mix.
 
#2 Dunkirk 4-1...The much hyped spring horse comes in rested off the poor showing in the Derby . One way of looking at his line is to draw a line through the bad race as a troubled trip and not liking the off going. Another way is that he reacted severly to the pair of big figures he posted at gulfstream.Either way he is a tough horse to key and certainly cant be left out. If his excuse is legit he will be tough to beat.
 
#3 Mr Hot Stuff 15-1...Not much to like for me except his physical appearence. I would need twice the odds to include him.
 
#4 Summer Bird 12-1...The live long shot in the race for trainer Ice and KD. In his third start he jumped to in imprressive figure then  reacted  only slightly in the Derby's slop. He is now rested and could be sitting on a peak performence but his running style plays against him here.Still at big odds is a must use in the exotics and will make a few token plays w/ him on top.
 
#5 Luv Gov 15-1...Lukas hopeful w/out much hope.Again would need at least twice the odds to throw in on the bottom of the exotics.
 
#6 Charitable Man 3-1...The now horse for sharp trainer /jock combo. He posted 2 extremely impressive 2yo figures and in the second start of his form cycle  showed a modest improvement to new career best race. Much has been made as to the nature of the race as he benefitted from a picture perfect set up. I agree he did, but for me that was the perfect prep for a much tougher event and i look for him to run even better in the Belmont. For me he is the most likely winner as he is already the fastest horse and his condition line i rate as A+,but will have to wait and see the tote board.
 
to be cont
 
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Posted: #2
#7 Mine That Bird  2-1...The Derby winner proved he was no fluke that needed mud and a gold rail as he virtually paired his Derby in the Preakness. The bad news is he now probably needs to run even faster if either Dunkirk or Charitable  Man fires and that is unlikely.The best i can see him doing is running a  3rd strong  figure which would certainly put him on the board but there is a decent chance he bounces off the 2 big efforts and since he will be the probable post time fave the value is getting him to run out of the triple.My gut feeling though is he will run another good one and spoil my day but i will gamble.
 
#8 Flying Private  12-1...In the Preak he paired his top figure off the poor Derby and usually i would rate his line strongly, but in his case he has developed a huge amount already so i dont think he has a forward move in him. His line is strong enough though for a repeat of his last and that could get him a piece if Dunkirk or MTB dont fire their best.At double digits will be included underneath in the exotics.
 
#9 Miners Escape 15-1...His condition line is sitting on an absolute bounce as he made a huge forward move in his last start, much like MTB did in the Derby.Ive seen enough from trainer Zito in spots like this and i wont leave him out of the exotics at this price.
 
#10 Brave Victory 15-1...This is the Zito horse i will leave out and he will punish me.Just dont see him staying the trip.
 
Conclusion...I dont know how i will end up playing the race as post time odds can change things but for now Charitable Man is clearly the one who is primed to run his best and his best is plenty good enough and Summer Bird i think is a live longshot. Dunkirk is tough to key and impossible to leave out. GL
 
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Posted: #3
NUMS....YOUR USUAL CANDID ANALYSIS....I think that Brave Victory is a real closer. Look at his races going shorter and factor in the Peter Pan. The horse also had a decengt Swale. He's out of Lion Heart and  I think he can go all day long.
 
Not saying he can win, but he can finish as high as second.
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by mikeyp1:

NUMS....YOUR USUAL CANDID ANALYSIS....I think that Brave Victory is a real closer. Look at his races going shorter and factor in the Peter Pan. The horse also had a decengt Swale. He's out of Lion Heart and  I think he can go all day long.
 
Not saying he can win, but he can finish as high as second.
wow mikey..u really think that much of him? big odds and ur recommend  will find him a place on some tickets, but to date Lion Hearts have done much better sprinting as a group than routing, which dosent mean alot when dealing in the specific. GL
 
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Posted: #5
I will check odds at post but I will be playing 2 exactas one small and the other large.
 
$10 Exactabox - Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, Charitable Man $60
$2 Exactabox - Flying Private, Summer Bird, Miner's Escape, Charitable Man $24
 
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Posted: #6
Seems like alot of people are trying to beat MTB.  I think he's a standout here.  I'll mostly be playing triples with him on top. 
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by DannoDanger:

Seems like alot of people are trying to beat MTB.  I think he's a standout here.  I'll mostly be playing triples with him on top. 

 

 

I was just thinking the exact same thing as I read the posts on this forum.          People aren't respecting him again.   

 
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Posted: #8
I thought of Lion Heart as a better sprinter too, but lest we forget that he placed second in the Derby to Smarty Jones; he won the 1-1/8 Haskel too, and he led for most of the way until near the top of the stretch at the Travers before Birdstone and Cliff's Edge passed him by.
 
 Right now, his second crop is 33/99 in wins....pretty darned good, including 2 of 3 in stakes, so I'd say that Brave Victory has a legit shot at doing something.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by DannoDanger:

Seems like alot of people are trying to beat MTB.  I think he's a standout here.  I'll mostly be playing triples with him on top. 

 

U R correct, Danno. Whether he's beatable or not, I don't know, but there are enough fresh ones and legit closers in this race that says he can be beat.

If he wins, I'm not sure I'd elevate the horse to HOF status simpley because it's been such a weak TC season, but he certainly would deserve all the accolades.

 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by DannoDanger:

Seems like alot of people are trying to beat MTB.  I think he's a standout here.  I'll mostly be playing triples with him on top. 
Its not a question of trying to beat MTB..on their best 2 others are just as fast as he is, and they each have rest w/ a realistic chance of running even better and MTB is trying for 3 in 5 weeks which seriously compromises his chances of running better than he has already..and he's 2-1...so he has to be underlayed.
 
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Posted: #11
Good stuff as always numbers.Think your price will be right with C.M.
Looking for value this time around we may be rewarded. GL
 
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Posted: #12
Weather again ruins a great day of racing.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by NumberPower:

Weather again ruins a great day of racing.

 

THen it sounds like a MTB/SB Over!

 
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Posted: #14
My analysis is total garbage if the track is off...fyi.
 
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Posted: #15
great  writeup numberpower, it,s people like you, mikeyp1 and vetdrm that make this a great site for  us horse cappers.....and get well soon daneish our friend.....i am still undecided on the test of champions winner, i will try and post friday, but my strong leans are choclate candy, dunkirk, i keyed him in the derby,summer bird, not mine that bird and charitable man...rain , snow or sun i see no way borel wins this race ....deep closers very seldom win the belmont stakes..we have not had a triple crown winner since affrimed in 78 and we will not have a jockey do it for the first time in history neither..................
 
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Posted: #16
Charitable Man: 2 for 2 on the Belmont Track, 3 for 3 on Dirt his only loss coming on the fake stuff in Keenland...A trainer who knows how to win The Stakes his only other starter was Jazil who won in 2006....He is bred for this distance, his father is Lemon Drop Kid 1999 Belmont winner.......
He will take the lead and set soft fractions this way he has enough in the tank for when MNB makes a run at him in the stretch.....

Going to be a great race either way......


Good Luck!!!!!
 
MVP
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Posted: #17
good info guys keep it up
 
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Posted: #18
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