Posted:
#1
Not feeling as good about today's card as yesterday. A lot of really tricky races with little form and past performances to go off. I'll post Santa Anita plays a little later after scratches and changes..
GL to all!
race 2: 5 - RICHMOND STREET. My main concern with this pick is Mott being such a streaky trainer and his horses not running well thus far at the meet, but I feel like this one couldve made a good deal of improvement over the winter. This was a process of elimination pick for me: Marchant is simply a cut below. Alasaal although lone speed and a threat, just seems to be what he is, and he looks to me of a horse that's destined for 2nd or 3rd. I agree that Snag should run better going shorter, as that 1 1/2 mile was too far, but I dont really trust him to win the race especially as the favorite. That figure out of the last is inflated as well. Silver Beach looks to need one, as this is a tough distance to get the win off this long of a layoff and that little experience. St Louie wouldnt surprise me at all to outrun his odds, as there are layoff concerns for some and distance concerns for others, but he also has never gone this far before and is another that should fit great underneath. It leaves me thinking Mott has spotted this horse well to go forward on his 4yo campaign, and if he is ready to run off the layoff and improves, should be well good enough to get the job done here. My second choice at a nice price is definitely ST LOUIE, who I expect to be more forward today and is in the sharpest form of all currently. I can probably count on one hand how many times I've ever done this, but St. Louie seems like a perfect place/show bet to make some coin, or even a ladder bet across the board.
race 4: 10 - OUTRAGEOUS BET/ 6 - ELBOW ROOM. This is one of those head scratching races that looks destined for a big price. Therefore, I have two ways to approach it; the logical way with Outrageous Bet, who looked to never really be comfortable as the heavy 6/5 favorite and should enjoy this cutback to 7f on the widener. The other way is with a big price shot. The horses that have turf experience haven't shown much, and it looks like a high 50's to low 60's beyer figure is all it'll take to win this one. That being said, Elbow Room steps on the turf for the first time, and has a sneaky little bit of turf ped including a 75k purchase price on this light-on-paper sire/dam which has to suggest this 3yo gelding showed some ability at the sales. A lot of unknown of course, but these are the kind of races that can render $50+ horses and this would be my best guess at that. *sneaky late note when observing the changes.. the 5 NJORD adds blinkers (not noted in pp's) for first start under Leah Gyarmati. something to consider as well..*
race 5: 6 - GAME GIRL. Another turf route where there sure aren't any superstars signed on. This low level claimer features a small field of horses without much current form. That being said, I have to trust Linda Rice cherry picked this spot to return GAME GIRL to the turf. I'm struggling to find the horse that could show any ferocity down the stretch, and even if the 5 goes crazy for the lead, I think Game Girl can sit a comfortable second and still get first run at everyone else. The lack of works out of a trainer like Linda Rice is concerning, but I just don't like anyone else enough. Maybe back class re-surfaces for Resilient One or Theresas Candyrose off the claim for the lethal Rudy Rodriguez, but my best bet here is the favorite, whom people should shy away from enough because of form/layoff to get a decent 2/1 price for the most likely winner.
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