Recent workout confirming my belief that Cyberknife coming into his own, and while I dont have him winning the race, while constructing my Superfecta, I'd like to have him in the 3rd and 4th spot. Thought I would change the wagering structure a little bit with majority of my horses coming in the first and second hole with little wiggle room,[less horses] in the third and fourth slot. I know, its a crap shoot.
Cant confirm that there is a 10 cent super this year. Im assuming they will, and if thats the case should cost around 96 buckolas $$
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Recent workout confirming my belief that Cyberknife coming into his own, and while I dont have him winning the race, while constructing my Superfecta, I'd like to have him in the 3rd and 4th spot. Thought I would change the wagering structure a little bit with majority of my horses coming in the first and second hole with little wiggle room,[less horses] in the third and fourth slot. I know, its a crap shoot.
Cant confirm that there is a 10 cent super this year. Im assuming they will, and if thats the case should cost around 96 buckolas $$
Boosted by record payouts in 2006 [Giacomo] 2009 [Mine that Bird] 2017[ Always Dreaming]and most recently 2019[Country House] average Superfecta payouts based on a $2 wager average $145,334. $15,779 on a Trifecta, and Exacta payouts of $1,189. Nothing to sneeze at. And even with Super horse Taiba and Epicenter I still think this years race can go a number of different ways. I guess will just wait for the post positions.
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Boosted by record payouts in 2006 [Giacomo] 2009 [Mine that Bird] 2017[ Always Dreaming]and most recently 2019[Country House] average Superfecta payouts based on a $2 wager average $145,334. $15,779 on a Trifecta, and Exacta payouts of $1,189. Nothing to sneeze at. And even with Super horse Taiba and Epicenter I still think this years race can go a number of different ways. I guess will just wait for the post positions.
While I understand there reasoning, it sure takes the fun out of playing it unless you have deep pockets. Will have to shorten up considerably. Adding Simplfication in the 3rd and 4th spot
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10 cent supers not available on Derby day.
While I understand there reasoning, it sure takes the fun out of playing it unless you have deep pockets. Will have to shorten up considerably. Adding Simplfication in the 3rd and 4th spot
With him being from South Florida, I've been all over White Abarrio. However, if Charge It hadn't lugged in during the Florida Derby, I think he could have won the race. I've been to all the weddings with White Abarrio but I'm hesitant about going heavy with him & end up going to the funeral.
Simplification was also in the FLA Derby, had the lead but Saez may have gone a little fast going 23:67 & 47:24 & didn't have enough in the tank.
Trainer Brian Lynch confirmed Tuesday that Classic Causeway coming off an 11th-place finish in the Florida Derby on April 2 will compete in the Derby. Not sure what happened to him in the FL Derby. He was 3rd choice in the field.
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With him being from South Florida, I've been all over White Abarrio. However, if Charge It hadn't lugged in during the Florida Derby, I think he could have won the race. I've been to all the weddings with White Abarrio but I'm hesitant about going heavy with him & end up going to the funeral.
Simplification was also in the FLA Derby, had the lead but Saez may have gone a little fast going 23:67 & 47:24 & didn't have enough in the tank.
Trainer Brian Lynch confirmed Tuesday that Classic Causeway coming off an 11th-place finish in the Florida Derby on April 2 will compete in the Derby. Not sure what happened to him in the FL Derby. He was 3rd choice in the field.
I think Jose Ortiz will revert back to the ride he gave Simplfication winning the Fountain of youth. I did read somewhere that he did it on the wrong lead. But I do like the fact that he can adjust when in trouble and has some maneuverability. Bullet work at Gulfstream for those that follow the training aspect leading up. At those odds a show bet on him could pay dividends.
Yes,Charge it while really green seems like this year’s wiseguy horse, with a ton of potential going forward. Guess I’ll have a little more funds for the tri now that Im basically playing a much smaller super. Good luck trying to find that single.lol
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I think Jose Ortiz will revert back to the ride he gave Simplfication winning the Fountain of youth. I did read somewhere that he did it on the wrong lead. But I do like the fact that he can adjust when in trouble and has some maneuverability. Bullet work at Gulfstream for those that follow the training aspect leading up. At those odds a show bet on him could pay dividends.
Yes,Charge it while really green seems like this year’s wiseguy horse, with a ton of potential going forward. Guess I’ll have a little more funds for the tri now that Im basically playing a much smaller super. Good luck trying to find that single.lol
Mike Smith on Taiba beat Johnny V on Messier in the Santa Anita Derby. Both of these colts were trained by Baffert but are now in the barn of trainer Tim Yakteen. Gotta make a small box play here with these 2.
For those who base their capping on experience, both Tiz a Bomb & Barber Road have started 8 times. Three others have raced 7x, five have 6x, three have 5x, four have 4x & three have 2 starts. Taiba falls into that last category winning both starts in small fields of 6 & 7. This will be a whole new ballgame for him here coming from post #12.
There's a 30% of afternoon showers. Epicenter, Zadon & Classic Causeway have all won on an "off" track. Most have not raced on an off track. & he's won 3 of 4..
Been seeing some reports on Crown Pride from Japan who last won the UAE Derby just like Mendelssohn did 4 years ago when he was 3rd choice against Justify in the KY Derby. Last Wednesday, Crown Pride had the best of 30 going 4F in 46:40, so he must like the Churchill track. Crown Pride's only loss was on a muddy track. Horses from Japan won 5 of 9 races on that UAE Derby card & they won 2 BC races last year breaking an 0-13 record. Their quality has improved dramatically.
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Mike Smith on Taiba beat Johnny V on Messier in the Santa Anita Derby. Both of these colts were trained by Baffert but are now in the barn of trainer Tim Yakteen. Gotta make a small box play here with these 2.
For those who base their capping on experience, both Tiz a Bomb & Barber Road have started 8 times. Three others have raced 7x, five have 6x, three have 5x, four have 4x & three have 2 starts. Taiba falls into that last category winning both starts in small fields of 6 & 7. This will be a whole new ballgame for him here coming from post #12.
There's a 30% of afternoon showers. Epicenter, Zadon & Classic Causeway have all won on an "off" track. Most have not raced on an off track. & he's won 3 of 4..
Been seeing some reports on Crown Pride from Japan who last won the UAE Derby just like Mendelssohn did 4 years ago when he was 3rd choice against Justify in the KY Derby. Last Wednesday, Crown Pride had the best of 30 going 4F in 46:40, so he must like the Churchill track. Crown Pride's only loss was on a muddy track. Horses from Japan won 5 of 9 races on that UAE Derby card & they won 2 BC races last year breaking an 0-13 record. Their quality has improved dramatically.
Brad Cox has Zozos working 6F. In his last, the LA Derby he tired running 2nd to Epicenter. Manny Franco gets the mount from post # 19 as Geroux stays on # 16 Cyberknife. Cox also has # 18 Tawny Point. He certainly wasn't very lucky in the draw.
Pletcher also has 3 in here & drew post# 1 Mo Donegal, # 8 Charge It & #11 Pioneer of Medina.
If you are looking for a closer who can handle the traffic, check out #10 Zandon in the Blue Grass. Nice to see Flavien Prat staying in the saddle.
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Brad Cox has Zozos working 6F. In his last, the LA Derby he tired running 2nd to Epicenter. Manny Franco gets the mount from post # 19 as Geroux stays on # 16 Cyberknife. Cox also has # 18 Tawny Point. He certainly wasn't very lucky in the draw.
Pletcher also has 3 in here & drew post# 1 Mo Donegal, # 8 Charge It & #11 Pioneer of Medina.
If you are looking for a closer who can handle the traffic, check out #10 Zandon in the Blue Grass. Nice to see Flavien Prat staying in the saddle.
Zandon was my alpha horse but do I really want to play him at 3-1 ml over a couple of horse that are just as good at 8-1,10-1 and 20-1?
Granted these odds will change, some will go up, some will go down but I dont believe Taiba will gain enough steam to drop to far.
Those odds are surprising. Same with Messier and Smile Happy. Also found a few I thought would be closer to 50-1 but that'll change also.
Superfecta just got a ton more interesting with Epicenter while not a bad post has the other speed just to her outside. May have to use a little more speed early or get checked going into that first turn. Interesting race indeed.
Zandon has the perfect post but at 3-1 unless he drifts upwards around 9-2,while I still would have him on almost every exotic likely not a win ticket.
I like Crown Pride with some blistering works as Midnight stated and must be getting some notice as I expected odds on him to be much higher. But lets not forget, Japan has dominated racing recently. putting a show on in last years Breeders Cup and Yoshida, owner of Crown Pride has a horseshoe up his ass. Hes the Bob Baffert of thee Orient lately and would not be surprised if that luck helps the horses cause.
Mo Donegal while in the dreaded one hole gets a little break as he was likely to come from behind anyway. I would expect Irad to figure things out but still leaving him off most tickets.
Like the post for Cyberknife and another doing things the right way.
Weather maybe a little tricky on Friday. Very competitive race, thee Oaks, and while Nest and Echo are very deserving favorites
i really like Kathleen O. Secret Oath should be bet down somewhat. Although she got the one post, she did race the boys and that carries a lot of weight with racing fans. Super competitive race with Shahama and a few others possibly hitting the board.
Well have to dig deep into that Oks /Derby double.
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Zandon was my alpha horse but do I really want to play him at 3-1 ml over a couple of horse that are just as good at 8-1,10-1 and 20-1?
Granted these odds will change, some will go up, some will go down but I dont believe Taiba will gain enough steam to drop to far.
Those odds are surprising. Same with Messier and Smile Happy. Also found a few I thought would be closer to 50-1 but that'll change also.
Superfecta just got a ton more interesting with Epicenter while not a bad post has the other speed just to her outside. May have to use a little more speed early or get checked going into that first turn. Interesting race indeed.
Zandon has the perfect post but at 3-1 unless he drifts upwards around 9-2,while I still would have him on almost every exotic likely not a win ticket.
I like Crown Pride with some blistering works as Midnight stated and must be getting some notice as I expected odds on him to be much higher. But lets not forget, Japan has dominated racing recently. putting a show on in last years Breeders Cup and Yoshida, owner of Crown Pride has a horseshoe up his ass. Hes the Bob Baffert of thee Orient lately and would not be surprised if that luck helps the horses cause.
Mo Donegal while in the dreaded one hole gets a little break as he was likely to come from behind anyway. I would expect Irad to figure things out but still leaving him off most tickets.
Like the post for Cyberknife and another doing things the right way.
Weather maybe a little tricky on Friday. Very competitive race, thee Oaks, and while Nest and Echo are very deserving favorites
i really like Kathleen O. Secret Oath should be bet down somewhat. Although she got the one post, she did race the boys and that carries a lot of weight with racing fans. Super competitive race with Shahama and a few others possibly hitting the board.
Well have to dig deep into that Oks /Derby double.
Does Steve Asmussen breaks his 0-23 drought at the Derby with #3 Epicenter? He got 3rd with Curlin in 2007, 2nd with Nehro in 2011, 3rd with Gun Runner in 2016 & 2nd again with Lookin At Lee in 2017. Th Donut Man, Ron Winchell paid 260k for Epicenter as a yearling.
Stallions Gun Runner, Not This Time, Race Day & Pioneer of the Nile have 2 colts in the race with Taiba/Cyberknife, Epicenter/Simplification, White Abarrio/Barber Road & Tawny Port/Pioneer of Medina respectively.
#5 Smile Happy has already beaten #17 Classic Causeway & #10 White Abarrio over the Churchill strip last year in the Kentucky Jockey Club for 2 yr olds going 1 1/16. But he was collared by both Zandon & Epicenter in his last 2. Lanarie has been up in his last 3 & will be aboard Saturday. The Jockey Club was White Abarrio's only loss.
Brian Lynch jogged Classic Causeway a mile this morning with exercise rider Calamity Compton. No shit, that's the dude's name.
#20 Ethereal Road will be the 50th Derby starter for the Coach, Dwayne Lukas.
#4 Summer is Tomorrow ran 2nd to #7 Crown Pride in the UAE Derby.
Trainer Saffie Joseph of #15 White Abarrio is not looking forward to a sloppy track.
Useful stuff??? Or just making it more confusing???
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Does Steve Asmussen breaks his 0-23 drought at the Derby with #3 Epicenter? He got 3rd with Curlin in 2007, 2nd with Nehro in 2011, 3rd with Gun Runner in 2016 & 2nd again with Lookin At Lee in 2017. Th Donut Man, Ron Winchell paid 260k for Epicenter as a yearling.
Stallions Gun Runner, Not This Time, Race Day & Pioneer of the Nile have 2 colts in the race with Taiba/Cyberknife, Epicenter/Simplification, White Abarrio/Barber Road & Tawny Port/Pioneer of Medina respectively.
#5 Smile Happy has already beaten #17 Classic Causeway & #10 White Abarrio over the Churchill strip last year in the Kentucky Jockey Club for 2 yr olds going 1 1/16. But he was collared by both Zandon & Epicenter in his last 2. Lanarie has been up in his last 3 & will be aboard Saturday. The Jockey Club was White Abarrio's only loss.
Brian Lynch jogged Classic Causeway a mile this morning with exercise rider Calamity Compton. No shit, that's the dude's name.
#20 Ethereal Road will be the 50th Derby starter for the Coach, Dwayne Lukas.
#4 Summer is Tomorrow ran 2nd to #7 Crown Pride in the UAE Derby.
Trainer Saffie Joseph of #15 White Abarrio is not looking forward to a sloppy track.
Useful stuff??? Or just making it more confusing???
What a great set of races on the undercard if you can call it that.
Long layoff for Jack Christopher in the Pat Day mile. Cox loaded for Bear with lady Rocket Irad(5-1) and Just One time (3-1)in the Distaff. Irad will be my single in pick 3s and 4s.
Anyone planning to single a horse in the Derby super or any other race on Saturday?
I know it’s a tough thing to do but certainly keeps the price down.Believe all other races have dime Supers except for the Derby. Please correct me if Im wrong on that.
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What a great set of races on the undercard if you can call it that.
Long layoff for Jack Christopher in the Pat Day mile. Cox loaded for Bear with lady Rocket Irad(5-1) and Just One time (3-1)in the Distaff. Irad will be my single in pick 3s and 4s.
Anyone planning to single a horse in the Derby super or any other race on Saturday?
I know it’s a tough thing to do but certainly keeps the price down.Believe all other races have dime Supers except for the Derby. Please correct me if Im wrong on that.
This is by far the most difficult field to sort in the last 20 year I've been doing this. None of these horses stand out IMO. And I've never had much luck getting my derby picks across the line previously.... LOL might just key the overseas shipper, over the 3/10/13 then 5 of the mid/high odds stalk/closers and 10 stalk/closers for $150 super ticket. If there was ever a year for a UAE Derby winner this would be the year lol. Alot of these horse are gonna want the front. And many are way outside, I'm thinking the pace is gonna be hot and those outside the 14 gate may use up too much trying to get into position going into the 1st turn. 14-20 won't be on any of my tickets
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This is by far the most difficult field to sort in the last 20 year I've been doing this. None of these horses stand out IMO. And I've never had much luck getting my derby picks across the line previously.... LOL might just key the overseas shipper, over the 3/10/13 then 5 of the mid/high odds stalk/closers and 10 stalk/closers for $150 super ticket. If there was ever a year for a UAE Derby winner this would be the year lol. Alot of these horse are gonna want the front. And many are way outside, I'm thinking the pace is gonna be hot and those outside the 14 gate may use up too much trying to get into position going into the 1st turn. 14-20 won't be on any of my tickets
Only one colt has won the Kentucky Derby in his third career start & that was Leonatus in 1883. That doesn't bode well for #12 Taiba. The owners paid 1.7 million for this boy. If Mike Smith is able to win this race, he'll be the oldest to do so.
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Only one colt has won the Kentucky Derby in his third career start & that was Leonatus in 1883. That doesn't bode well for #12 Taiba. The owners paid 1.7 million for this boy. If Mike Smith is able to win this race, he'll be the oldest to do so.
I'm throwing out both Taiba & Messier. Don't like the way Messier gave it up in his last & I'm concerned with Taiba in a much larger field. In his only 2 races, he pretty much had it his own way & I don't think that will happen Saturday.
I'm giving a long look at #5 Smile Happy. He was favored against Zandon & Epicenter in his last 2 finishing 2nd in both. He'll be in my exotics.
Was wondering about Castellano & learned he'll be riding @ Belmont Saturday. Hope he's able to cash with Kathleen O in the OAKS. Echo Zulu concerns me more than Sacred Oath in the OAKS.
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@vetdrm
I'm throwing out both Taiba & Messier. Don't like the way Messier gave it up in his last & I'm concerned with Taiba in a much larger field. In his only 2 races, he pretty much had it his own way & I don't think that will happen Saturday.
I'm giving a long look at #5 Smile Happy. He was favored against Zandon & Epicenter in his last 2 finishing 2nd in both. He'll be in my exotics.
Was wondering about Castellano & learned he'll be riding @ Belmont Saturday. Hope he's able to cash with Kathleen O in the OAKS. Echo Zulu concerns me more than Sacred Oath in the OAKS.
I agree, but I backed off a bit on Cyberknife. While he has made progress, I think it might take a 98, 99, 100 Beyer to win. Not sure he's ready to hit that kind of number. Nonetheless, I have him up and down my wheels. Good luck Vet.
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@vetdrm
I agree, but I backed off a bit on Cyberknife. While he has made progress, I think it might take a 98, 99, 100 Beyer to win. Not sure he's ready to hit that kind of number. Nonetheless, I have him up and down my wheels. Good luck Vet.
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