We've done this before. Let's have a little thread on Breeders Cup (I call it Christmas) notes and tidbits. Two or the many horses I'll be watching with interest in works are Omaha Beach and Mitole.
Omaha Beach will be overbet based on sentimentality but that horse's heart cannot be understated. I really want to see how he looks next week.
Mitole just went 58 4/5 which as you all know, is insane for an Asmussen horse. I still think he had the best win this year on Belmont Day beating that field. I expect he will get another recorded work at a much slower speed but his appearance on the track will be what I am looking at.
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We've done this before. Let's have a little thread on Breeders Cup (I call it Christmas) notes and tidbits. Two or the many horses I'll be watching with interest in works are Omaha Beach and Mitole.
Omaha Beach will be overbet based on sentimentality but that horse's heart cannot be understated. I really want to see how he looks next week.
Mitole just went 58 4/5 which as you all know, is insane for an Asmussen horse. I still think he had the best win this year on Belmont Day beating that field. I expect he will get another recorded work at a much slower speed but his appearance on the track will be what I am looking at.
Bricks going in Turf... and I believe he is a fade as a short price fav never going 1.5 miles. He may not have enough kick at that distance. Ill be backing a few forwardly placed runners in that one. Don't overlook Uni in the Mile also. Word is she is working and feeling her best ever. Maybe only need to use her and Got Stormy to get out of that leg.
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Bricks going in Turf... and I believe he is a fade as a short price fav never going 1.5 miles. He may not have enough kick at that distance. Ill be backing a few forwardly placed runners in that one. Don't overlook Uni in the Mile also. Word is she is working and feeling her best ever. Maybe only need to use her and Got Stormy to get out of that leg.
Keep saving how much safer and safer they are making track. That means deeper i believe. MUST watch races this week and see how pace types are doing. If mid pack or even deep closers are winning at SA that means this track is super deep and you need to looks at middle pack cut back types for BC days. Front end speed normally dominates dirt races at SA so if it stops then there is a new track bias for sure. Could be the edge you need to hit a bomb payout.
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Keep saving how much safer and safer they are making track. That means deeper i believe. MUST watch races this week and see how pace types are doing. If mid pack or even deep closers are winning at SA that means this track is super deep and you need to looks at middle pack cut back types for BC days. Front end speed normally dominates dirt races at SA so if it stops then there is a new track bias for sure. Could be the edge you need to hit a bomb payout.
Bricks going in Turf... and I believe he is a fade as a short price fav never going 1.5 miles. He may not have enough kick at that distance. Ill be backing a few forwardly placed runners in that one. Don't overlook Uni in the Mile also. Word is she is working and feeling her best ever. Maybe only need to use her and Got Stormy to get out of that leg.
The only loss for Uni was by Get Stormy.
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Quote Originally Posted by AtlantaDavid:
Bricks going in Turf... and I believe he is a fade as a short price fav never going 1.5 miles. He may not have enough kick at that distance. Ill be backing a few forwardly placed runners in that one. Don't overlook Uni in the Mile also. Word is she is working and feeling her best ever. Maybe only need to use her and Got Stormy to get out of that leg.
Correction: Aidan O'Brien is 0-36 in the Mile & Filly/Mare Turf. He has won other BC races.
Horses exiting a prep race @ Gulfstream have only won once & that was Bulletin last year.
In the Juvenile Turf, European preppers have won 9 of 12 including 7n of the last 8. Those prepped @ Newmarket have won a record 5 times including 3 of the 6 races run @ Santa Anita. Aidan O'Brien has won this race 4 times including two 2nd's. No Cali based filly has ever finished in the exacta. Jockey Ryan Moore has won 4 in 9 tries.
Regarding the Juvenile Fillies, the Frizette has produced the last 2 winners & 4 of the last 8. Cali runners have won 6 of the 9 races @ Santa Anita. 8 undefeated runners have won this race.
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Correction: Aidan O'Brien is 0-36 in the Mile & Filly/Mare Turf. He has won other BC races.
Horses exiting a prep race @ Gulfstream have only won once & that was Bulletin last year.
In the Juvenile Turf, European preppers have won 9 of 12 including 7n of the last 8. Those prepped @ Newmarket have won a record 5 times including 3 of the 6 races run @ Santa Anita. Aidan O'Brien has won this race 4 times including two 2nd's. No Cali based filly has ever finished in the exacta. Jockey Ryan Moore has won 4 in 9 tries.
Regarding the Juvenile Fillies, the Frizette has produced the last 2 winners & 4 of the last 8. Cali runners have won 6 of the 9 races @ Santa Anita. 8 undefeated runners have won this race.
In the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Chad Brown has won 3 in a row & 5 of 11 races. He has #13 Selfishly this year. North American fillies have won 9 times in 11 years including 4 of 6 @ Santa Anita. European runners are 0-6 as the favorite. Cali runners have been shut out of the exacta in all 11 races. 10 of 11 runners have won or run 2nd in their prep races.
In the Juvenile, the favorite has ran 2nd five times @ SA. Cali runners have won 6 of the 9 races @ SA. The pacesetter in this race hasn't finished in the money in 8 years.
In the Filly/Mare Sprint, 10 of 11 winners have their prep races @ Keenland. The last 2 winners were prepped @ Del Mar. Four straight favorites have finished out of the money. 3 of the last 4 winners have come from at least 11 lenghts or further. No horse has wired in the field in 12 tries. 3 yr old fillies are now 31-1-2-4 in this race.
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In the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Chad Brown has won 3 in a row & 5 of 11 races. He has #13 Selfishly this year. North American fillies have won 9 times in 11 years including 4 of 6 @ Santa Anita. European runners are 0-6 as the favorite. Cali runners have been shut out of the exacta in all 11 races. 10 of 11 runners have won or run 2nd in their prep races.
In the Juvenile, the favorite has ran 2nd five times @ SA. Cali runners have won 6 of the 9 races @ SA. The pacesetter in this race hasn't finished in the money in 8 years.
In the Filly/Mare Sprint, 10 of 11 winners have their prep races @ Keenland. The last 2 winners were prepped @ Del Mar. Four straight favorites have finished out of the money. 3 of the last 4 winners have come from at least 11 lenghts or further. No horse has wired in the field in 12 tries. 3 yr old fillies are now 31-1-2-4 in this race.
In the Turf Sprint, Cali runners have won 5 of the last 6 @ SA but that was @ 6.5 f & this race will be @ 5F. Eight different prep races have resulted in 8 different winners. Veterans 5 or older have won 7 of the 11 races. Trainer Peter Miller has won the last 2 with Stormy Liberal.
In the Dirt Mile, the favorite has run out of the money in the last 3 & out of the trifecta in 9 of 12 races. 10 of 12 winners rebounded in this race after losing their prep races.
In the Filly & Mare Turf, European bred runners took the top 6 placings in last year's race. Cali prepped runners are 0-44 with only 5 in the money finishers. 3 yr olds have won this race 5 times.
In the Sprint, Cali based runners have won 9 of the last 13 including 3 straight & 8 of the last 11. There hasn't been a winner that was 3 or more lenghts off the pace & the last 5 winners were either 1st, 2nd or 3rd during the race. 6 times the race has been won by a horse aged 6 or older.
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In the Turf Sprint, Cali runners have won 5 of the last 6 @ SA but that was @ 6.5 f & this race will be @ 5F. Eight different prep races have resulted in 8 different winners. Veterans 5 or older have won 7 of the 11 races. Trainer Peter Miller has won the last 2 with Stormy Liberal.
In the Dirt Mile, the favorite has run out of the money in the last 3 & out of the trifecta in 9 of 12 races. 10 of 12 winners rebounded in this race after losing their prep races.
In the Filly & Mare Turf, European bred runners took the top 6 placings in last year's race. Cali prepped runners are 0-44 with only 5 in the money finishers. 3 yr olds have won this race 5 times.
In the Sprint, Cali based runners have won 9 of the last 13 including 3 straight & 8 of the last 11. There hasn't been a winner that was 3 or more lenghts off the pace & the last 5 winners were either 1st, 2nd or 3rd during the race. 6 times the race has been won by a horse aged 6 or older.
In the Mile, US based horses have won 6 of the last 8. Nine females have won the Mile.
In the Turf, European horses have won 16 of the last 20 races including 4 in a row & 5 of 7 victories coming @ SA. Aidan O'Brie has won 4 of the last 8.
In the last 4 classics, the winning favorite has been 5-2 or less. No gelding has ever won the Classic.
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In the Mile, US based horses have won 6 of the last 8. Nine females have won the Mile.
In the Turf, European horses have won 16 of the last 20 races including 4 in a row & 5 of 7 victories coming @ SA. Aidan O'Brie has won 4 of the last 8.
In the last 4 classics, the winning favorite has been 5-2 or less. No gelding has ever won the Classic.
In the Dirt Mile on Saturday, Blue Chipper will be the first South Korean trained horse to race in the BC. He has won 7 of 8 including 6 in a row. His margin of the victories total 45 lenghts.
Japan will have 2 shots at winning a BC race with Full Flat in the Juvenile on Friday & Matera Sky Saturday in the Sprint.
There are a couple of trainers with a bunch of chances. On Friday's card, Doug O'Neil has 7 going, Peter Miller has 6, Baffert & Sadler have 4 each. On Saturday, Sadler has 7 more trying; Baffert. Chad Brown, Richard Baltas, D'Amato , Miller & O'Neil have 4 each.
In the Turf Mile Race 9 on Saturday, AtlantaDavid likes #11 Uni & I like #6 Get Stormy. To complete the trifecta, give a look at #13 Hey Gaman & throw out his turf races on a soft track. On a good turf with Frankie Dettori in the irons, this colt shows up.
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In the Dirt Mile on Saturday, Blue Chipper will be the first South Korean trained horse to race in the BC. He has won 7 of 8 including 6 in a row. His margin of the victories total 45 lenghts.
Japan will have 2 shots at winning a BC race with Full Flat in the Juvenile on Friday & Matera Sky Saturday in the Sprint.
There are a couple of trainers with a bunch of chances. On Friday's card, Doug O'Neil has 7 going, Peter Miller has 6, Baffert & Sadler have 4 each. On Saturday, Sadler has 7 more trying; Baffert. Chad Brown, Richard Baltas, D'Amato , Miller & O'Neil have 4 each.
In the Turf Mile Race 9 on Saturday, AtlantaDavid likes #11 Uni & I like #6 Get Stormy. To complete the trifecta, give a look at #13 Hey Gaman & throw out his turf races on a soft track. On a good turf with Frankie Dettori in the irons, this colt shows up.
Most players look to beat the chalk. So I'll offer up this possibility.
In Race 7 Saturday the Filly & Mare Turf, owner Peter Brant & trainer Chad Brown have 2 stablemates entered. There's # 6 Thais & she'll be the rabbit for ML favorite #2 Sistercharlie who has banked almost 3.5 million. I'm thinking #7 Vasilika may upset the "rabbit" plan. She's no slouch having won 11 of 12 races @ SA.
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Most players look to beat the chalk. So I'll offer up this possibility.
In Race 7 Saturday the Filly & Mare Turf, owner Peter Brant & trainer Chad Brown have 2 stablemates entered. There's # 6 Thais & she'll be the rabbit for ML favorite #2 Sistercharlie who has banked almost 3.5 million. I'm thinking #7 Vasilika may upset the "rabbit" plan. She's no slouch having won 11 of 12 races @ SA.
Most players look to beat the chalk. So I'll offer up this possibility. In Race 7 Saturday the Filly & Mare Turf, owner Peter Brant & trainer Chad Brown have 2 stablemates entered. There's # 6 Thais & she'll be the rabbit for ML favorite #2 Sistercharlie who has banked almost 3.5 million. I'm thinking #7 Vasilika may upset the "rabbit" plan. She's no slouch having won 11 of 12 races @ SA.
I forgot to mention the subplot in this race.
#7 Vasilika is owned by Janet Hollendorfer whose husband & trainer Jerry has been banned from saddling any horses in the BC races.
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Quote Originally Posted by Midnight1:
Most players look to beat the chalk. So I'll offer up this possibility. In Race 7 Saturday the Filly & Mare Turf, owner Peter Brant & trainer Chad Brown have 2 stablemates entered. There's # 6 Thais & she'll be the rabbit for ML favorite #2 Sistercharlie who has banked almost 3.5 million. I'm thinking #7 Vasilika may upset the "rabbit" plan. She's no slouch having won 11 of 12 races @ SA.
I forgot to mention the subplot in this race.
#7 Vasilika is owned by Janet Hollendorfer whose husband & trainer Jerry has been banned from saddling any horses in the BC races.
Some believe that history has a tendency to repeat itself. Here's a little history.
Quote Originally Posted by Midnight1:
Correction: Aidan O'Brien is 0-36 in the Mile & Filly/Mare Turf. He has won other BC races. Horses exiting a prep race @ Gulfstream have only won once & that was Bulletin last year. In the Juvenile Turf, European preppers have won 9 of 12 including 7n of the last 8. Those prepped @ Newmarket have won a record 5 times including 3 of the 6 races run @ Santa Anita. Aidan O'Brien has won this race 4 times including two 2nd's. No Cali based filly has ever finished in the exacta. Jockey Ryan Moore has won 4 in 9 tries. Regarding the Juvenile Fillies, the Frizette has produced the last 2 winners & 4 of the last 8. Cali runners have won 6 of the 9 races @ Santa Anita. 8 undefeated runners have won this race.
Wicked Whisper falls into this category noted in bold.
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Some believe that history has a tendency to repeat itself. Here's a little history.
Quote Originally Posted by Midnight1:
Correction: Aidan O'Brien is 0-36 in the Mile & Filly/Mare Turf. He has won other BC races. Horses exiting a prep race @ Gulfstream have only won once & that was Bulletin last year. In the Juvenile Turf, European preppers have won 9 of 12 including 7n of the last 8. Those prepped @ Newmarket have won a record 5 times including 3 of the 6 races run @ Santa Anita. Aidan O'Brien has won this race 4 times including two 2nd's. No Cali based filly has ever finished in the exacta. Jockey Ryan Moore has won 4 in 9 tries. Regarding the Juvenile Fillies, the Frizette has produced the last 2 winners & 4 of the last 8. Cali runners have won 6 of the 9 races @ Santa Anita. 8 undefeated runners have won this race.
Wicked Whisper falls into this category noted in bold.
Correction: Aidan O'Brien is 0-36 in the Mile & Filly/Mare Turf. He has won other BC races. Horses exiting a prep race @ Gulfstream have only won once & that was Bulletin last year. In the Juvenile Turf, European preppers have won 9 of 12 including 7 of the last 8.Those prepped @ Newmarket have won a record 5 times including 3 of the 6 races run @ Santa Anita. Aidan O'Brien has won this race 4 times including two 2nd's. No Cali based filly has ever finished in the exacta. Jockey Ryan Moore has won 4 in 9 tries. Regarding the Juvenile Fillies, the Frizette has produced the last 2 winners & 4 of the last 8. Cali runners have won 6 of the 9 races @ Santa Anita. 8 undefeated runners have won this race.
Arizona falls into this category note above in RED.
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Quote Originally Posted by Midnight1:
Correction: Aidan O'Brien is 0-36 in the Mile & Filly/Mare Turf. He has won other BC races. Horses exiting a prep race @ Gulfstream have only won once & that was Bulletin last year. In the Juvenile Turf, European preppers have won 9 of 12 including 7 of the last 8.Those prepped @ Newmarket have won a record 5 times including 3 of the 6 races run @ Santa Anita. Aidan O'Brien has won this race 4 times including two 2nd's. No Cali based filly has ever finished in the exacta. Jockey Ryan Moore has won 4 in 9 tries. Regarding the Juvenile Fillies, the Frizette has produced the last 2 winners & 4 of the last 8. Cali runners have won 6 of the 9 races @ Santa Anita. 8 undefeated runners have won this race.
Arizona falls into this category note above in RED.
While capping, I didn't see Florent Geroux on any horses & learned he fractured his sternum 2 weeks ago while working a colt for Phil D'Amato @ Keenland.
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While capping, I didn't see Florent Geroux on any horses & learned he fractured his sternum 2 weeks ago while working a colt for Phil D'Amato @ Keenland.
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